Member Info for Joe666

Freeports: What are they and where will they be?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-55819489

I've got nothing against Rainbow and was a holder up until recently. Obviously another big difference that's reflected in the valuation is how far advanced the Pensana separation plant is in comparison - groundwork commenced, FEED (Front End Engineering Design) almost complete and bonds ready to go. Not to mention the fact that it's located in a Freeport so material can be imported and exported without tarrifs, right on the doorstep of Europe's wind energy and EV manufacturers.

CaneToad
The valuation will eventually have to reflect Saltend, Europe's first rare earth separation facility in a decade, designed to provide 5% global NdPr oxide demand, with space allocated to expand further downstream to produce magnet metals. Comparing Pensana to pure mining companies only tells part of the story.

The company's focus is to be Europe's equivalent to Lynas and MP, both currently valued in $bn's. That's what got this to £2 in March only to come crashing down as reality dawned that there were still a few hurdles to jump. The fall has been made worse by a mishandled delisting from ASX and a short attack from New York.

During this fall though the company has in fact made very good progress. Planning has been secured, groundwork commenced, long lead items ordered and the Bond issuer selected. Behind the scenes the board has been strengthened, FEED progressed, ATF progressed and offtake partners shortlisted.

At some stage this will bottom out and a valuation based upon fundamentals vs risk of failure/success becomes the measure. After weighing those up it then comes down to each investor to decide for themselves. One thing is for sure though - a simple mining company valuation model will never accurately reflect what this project is worth.

astro999, completely agree that there have been some mistakes made in the communication from Pensana. I also think that they have been incredibly busy but don't feel the need to RNS every detail. Looking forward they seem to have changed comms strategy with a series of webinars, the first of which was a couple weeks ago - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8aWTFhtFeCI

Metalhead25, you're welcome.

CaneToad, the equity portion is an uncertain amount because it's the final part of the jigsaw, that's why I used such a wide range, looking again I expect it to be at the upper end, so $150 usd (£110m). It's always been the plan to fund with a mixture of debt and equity. No hiding the fact that there will be a big raise here but it will be worth it to complete funding, bring institutions on to the register and derisk the project - putting us on track for $500m usd annual revenue. My expectation is that when the project is 80% funded (Bonds, ATF, loans) and other news has been released the share price will be much higher than current making dilution less painful. Whilst the aim is to get funding completed in 2021 I'm of the strong opinion that they will hold off the raise if the share price isn't at an approriate level. Chairman has a lot of skin in the game and has always stated that he will aim to avoid weakening the share price with poor value dilution.

Hi Metalhead,

Pensana have secured a 5 year, $250m usd bond issue (subject to FEED) with ABG Sundal Collier - the plan is for these bonds to be issued Q4 2021, (FEED due by end October).

Certain large and specialist items (kilns, crushers and the like) can be financed separately via a 3rd party acting between Pensana and the manufacturer, a very common arrangement for European manufacturers.

ATF will contribute (subject to government sign-off) expected $15-$20m usd.

The remainder, approx $100 - $150 usd is expeted to come from an institutional equity raise. This was planned to be completed by end of 2021 but it will only happen if the share price has recovered.

I hope that covers your question, and as always, DYOR ; )

Roundthetrap, if I may make a couple of suggestions in response to your questions.

Firstly the two elderly directors who recently left, my understanding is that they will be replaced with more appropriate board members now that Pensana is at the funding and construction phase. Meanwhile, CEO Tim George, 30 years experience in mining, is permanently based in Africa and more than qualified to handle operations there (see his profile on Pensana website).

Secondly, Pensana are holding an investor webinar on Wednesday at 8am, so you will have an opportunity to ask questions directly.

Thirdly, the BFS was never intended to be made public, access is restricted to finance insiders who have agreed to confidentiality. We can safely assume though that a $250m bond issue would not have been agreed if the BFS was any less stellar than indicated in the business plan. As always DYOR

Expecting grant not loan

Dumbo, MKA don't have a BFS (it's in-progress), second time I've noticed you write that and the second time I've called you out on it. Just another example of fundamental inaccuracy in your comments. You epitomise all that is wrong with share forums - a complete amature with poor analysis trying to pass off nonsense as fact.

Dumbo, to be honest you and your pals have made this board unusable. Most successful investors relish healthy debate and are constantly evaluating the companies they're invested in, but endless negativity doesn't teach us anything. If you'd been a bit more measured in your approach things would have gone better here but you're just clumsy. Even now still referring to Pensana as an AIM share - it's main market, never been listed on AIM. This typical of you, foaming at the mouth, ranting about any number of ridiculous fantasies that have no basis, while the rest of us are diligently researching and educating ourselves to become better investors.

An excellent explanation Tony.

Looking slightly further ahead Pensana's financing is expected to include bonds – having read the recently published UK Government Green Financing Framework document all of the points you have highlighted will be relevant in assessing eligibility for Green Bonds.

Here's a link to the document, IMO essential reading for all interested in Pensana – https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1002578/20210630_UK_Government_Green_Financing_Framework.pdf

Charles, you seem very quick to ask questions but reluctant to answer any! Just going AWOL for a few days doesn't wipe the slate clean.

Hogsnipe, Ozango is the name of the Pensana subsidiary that owns the Longonjo licence.
https://www.miningreview.com/speciality-minerals/angola-approves-pensana-rare-earths-mining-title/
Regarding ATF the rounds indicate when companies can apply but don’t specify end dates or payment schedule. If you consider the complexities of examining a wide gamut of projects all at different
stages, then you can that this is for good reason. My understanding is that we’ll get an update next month.

Don't be lazy Charles, these will get you started but you need to learn to look for yourself

https://www.vacuumschmelze.com/products/Permanent-Magnets

https://www.kolektor.com/magnetics

https://www.arnoldmagnetics.com/permanent-magnets/

https://www.lesscommonmetals.com/deformed-magnets

Charles, if you think the Conservative party will nationalise Pensana you either lack the most basic grasp of politics or you need to check your meds. To make such as 'out there' comment betrays your distorted view of British and European government.

Pensana's downstream customers/partners could well come from the list on the The European Raw Materials Alliance (ERMA) website https://erma.eu/network/ (it's very extensive)!

DP vs
• SRK: Mineral resource estimates
• Snowden: Mine plan schedule and pit optimisation
• Wood Group: Longonjo and Saltend technical engineering and design; capex and
opex cost estimates; supervision of metallurgical testwork and pilot plant
programs
• Paradigm Project Management: Longonjo site infrastructure and bulk services
technical engineering, design and cost estimates
• HCV Africa: ESIA, EMP, RAP and hydrology
• Grupo Simples – Angolan ESIA
• Adamas Intelligence: Market forecasts

@Theorist - very naive of you not to have anticipated these questions about your motivation, you should have had a prepared answer ready like the others did, perhaps you're new to this, summer hols job maybe?

Great post Hogsnipe.
Whilst acknowledging that there will be some serious challenges to overcome it's clear that there is more than enough collective knowledge and experience outside of China to build a successful supply chain.
Futhermore the macro backdrop with unfathomable demand, ESG regulation and western awakening to security concerns is a massive tailwind, and not just for Pensana.
To say that just because something has never been done before it must be impossible is not a valid argument. And if we are doomed to fail then why would so many coordinated uninvested parties devote so much time and energy spreading uncertainty and fear among investors? Could it be that they have realised that market is about to be turned on it's head and some very lucrative cosy arrangements are now endangered.

Meanwhile: https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/CANADA-RARE-EARTH-CORP-49479155/news/Canada-Rare-Earth-Builds-Its-Global-Trading-Business-and-Appoints-Head-of-Global-Trading-35892883/

https://qz.com/1999894/why-rare-earth-magnets-are-vital-to-the-global-climate-economy/

Morning DP, that’s an early post, what time zone are in?