Is Varadkar our real enemy?16 Dec 2018 21:24
Taoiseach Leo Varadkar “has over-played his hand”, I argued, “teaming up with Brussels to adopt a maximalist, ultra-legalistic approach to the Irish border”. The significant UK-Irish trading relationship, on top of our intertwined cultural and family ties, means Ireland has much to gain, more than any EU27 country in relative terms, from a UK-EU free trade agreement. But “by asserting the ‘impossibility’ of avoiding ‘a hard border’ after Brexit”, I wrote, “Varadkar has made such a deal less likely, acting against his country’s economic interests”. My article provoked a highly critical letter from the Irish embassy in London – denying my assertion that, since becoming Taoiseach in June 2017, Varadkar’s approach has been far more hardline than that of his predecessor Enda Kenny. Yet that’s just a statement of fact.
Kenny’s well-documented instinct was to find a negotiated solution. Soon after the June 2016 referendum, UK and Irish civil servants set to work, examining Authorised Economic Operator (AEO) and trusted trader schemes to cope with cross-border trade flows, which, while important to local communities, are rather small
On taking office, Varadkar instantly disbanded these working groups, ordering an end to direct UK-Irish collaboration. “The shutters have come down in Dublin,” one senior mandarin told me at the time. In November 2017, Varadkar then dramatically upped the stakes, demanding Britain sign a “backstop” – making it impossible to leave the EU’s customs union unilaterally, while drawing a border down the Irish Sea.
Varadkar’s poll ratings improved – there are votes in hammering the Brits. As the leader of a minority Fine Gael government, he needs all the support he can get. But having gone in so hard at the outset, Varadkar has since been pressured by Sinn Féin and Fianna Fáil to turn the screw even more. And now, just when negotiation is needed, this inexperienced Taoiseach has no domestic room for manoeuvre. Showing flexibility, loosening the backstop to avoid “no deal”, would be entirely in Ireland’s best interest. But doing so would see Varadkar suffer an almighty loss of face.
In reality, this “backstop” issue has been cooked up by Dublin and Brussels to derail Brexit and keep the UK in the customs union. Why? One reason is UK consumers and businesses then keep paying the Common External Tariff on imports from outside the EU, sending 80pc of such revenues, billions annually, directly to Brussels.
Another is that, inside the customs union, London can’t cut bespoke trade deals, suiting British rather than French or German interests, with the rest of the world – particularly the fast-growing Asian giants. The UK’s business nous and global connections mean it would thrive outside the customs union, encouraging others to leave the EU’s protectionist bloc. Brussels knows it, which is why the Eurocrats must keep us in.
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