Member Info for Jiving

Opulentia the service provider has NOT tabled a bid for the OPL226 licences but to provide oil services (& finance) to the operators of the first oil platform on the OPL226 area which is the Noa field.

The last 2 years have been a painful process whereby Shorecan has legitimately (ie no bribes) negotiated with the NNPC/DPR to drill the OPL226 area according to a bold & expanded PSC which envisages 4 wells not 1. The service provider (s) will not only be providing services but also the bulk of the finance which should be circa $150m in addition to the back end $50m already arranged via a Trafigura syndicate.

Thee can be no update on first quarter figures until the first quarter statement due in May 2019, just like first quarter 2018 was issued on 11 May 2018. So no mystery or ulterior motive.

There are a number of options Arthur has in these circumstances, a placing is only one. As Jay pointed out we do not know when formal confirmation will come as the Bond was the final formal hurdle prior to formal approval.

Agreed NoEasy its very frustrating. But we have to assume the reason we cannot be told the exact state of approvals & licenses is because of a clear Nigerian Government prohibition on such disclosures. Similarly the announcement of a rig hire ahead of the announcement of the SP's name is presumably because of a contractual obligation not to publicise it ahead of formal agreement, but a rig contractor would not move into action without finance/SP in position? It seems to me the company is forced into this netherworld of not being able to highlight progress as it happens but to try and signal it indirectly, by clear external constraints.

Of course there will 'eventually' be a placing. The main news today is the Bond being issued to meet the final requirements of the PSC Extension. Coupled with the extraordinary news regarding rig hire, which means that Shorecan, the Service Provider & the authorities are all working towards actual drilling in approx mid year.

The stunning thing about these shorters is how they usually never post until an hour before opening, know nothing about the company whatsoever & mindlessly repeat the same simpletons message, as if repetition makes it true.

There is no deception with regard to the announcement of the PSC licence extension to 2020 or the $7m Bond needed to meet the terms of that extension - explain how these are 'deceptions'? The rig hire of course is non binding until its finished trials, standard in the industry, what it means is that behind the scenes it is understood that OPL26 is going ahead which is why contractors & rig owners are moving into position.

The biggest deceivers here are the shorters trying to cover their positions.

In March 2019, Shorecan signed with drilling contractor for a new, high-spec jack-up rig. Currently the rig is undergoing inspection/testing prior to being formally contracted. This means we are on schedule to drill on time, all parties are on board, just awaiting formal paperwork which has clearly been agreed!

OK this critical news has not arrived in the order we were expecting ie i.) NNPC/DPR formal approvals; ii.) SP formal announcement …iii.) then rig hire. BUT it surely tells us both approvals & SP are done deals IF not actually formally announced yet. Drilling contractors & rig owners are realists not fantasists - they would not be moving into motion if they were not absolutely sure both approvals & finance are in place. This is not a rumour this is finally for real!

The analogy I see is this: the Rolling Stones don’t agree to do a gig on a date/venue unless they know they are going to get paid & the venue will be hired. But they may well agree in advance of formal proof of both if they are dealing with trusted counterparties and let the formal paperwork come later.

This is the official blurb:
“In March the Company’s Nigerian Affiliate signed a non-binding letter of intent with an offshore drilling contractor for a new build high spec jack-up drilling rig. The rig is currently undergoing testing and final inspections before its acceptance by the contractor. Successful completion of these tests is one of the Affiliates’ conditions in moving forward in the contracting process.”

Best accessed here, click 6th item down News release - English, see Q1 update:
https://www.sedar.com/DisplayCompanyDocuments.do?lang=EN&issuerNo=00021327

Shorecan has arranged a $7m Performance Bond to meet the final conditions of the PSC Extension granted last October (also set out in November 2018 MD&A). This is clearly the last formal obstacle that needed to be met before all outstanding approvals & licences are granted. It is the item you do last because it costs precious resources to pay the Canadian/Nigerian banks involved to issue the Bond. Finally, it seems all the hurdles have been overcome & we are there, “…activities on OPL 226 can be commenced in earnest.”

This is the official blurb:
“The Company’s Nigerian Affiliate has accepted a term sheet from a recognized Nigerian Bank for the provision of a US$7 million Performance Bond which will meet the principal condition of the 24-month extension of Phase 1 of the OPL 226 PSC which runs until October 2020. Security for the Performance Bond will be provided by COPL’s affiliate ShoreCan. The Company expects the Performance Bond to be in place to the satisfaction of the regulatory authorities in the coming weeks, at which point activities on OPL 226 can be commenced in earnest. “

Best accessed here, click 6th item down News release - English, see Q1 update:
https://www.sedar.com/DisplayCompanyDocuments.do?lang=EN&issuerNo=00021327

Ploppy. Good point on NNPC and the big big problem we have about the famous January IR communication, to revisit "... It has already been approved, but due to elections the Company has been asked to keep quiet. " That seemed pretty clear to me & others but it is now as if it had never been mentioned, a bit like "Service Provider in a month.." from last August that has never been mentioned again.

I wonder if the timing of the NSAI report is indicative of anything, the last one was produced on 28 April 2017 so nearly 2 years ago.

What are people expecting from tomorrow's annual results, particularly the Canadian MD&A?

I am not expecting breakthrough news on the Big 3 of NNPC, DPR & SP - I hope/assume that would have been RNS's. Hopefully some indication of incremental progress on the Big 3. Any drilling related news?

Agamore - what is the situation now heading for a year after this started.

Essar. Where do matters stand - generally & with regard to the offtake offer mentioned last time?

Mozambique. Update on situation, we seem to be last in the queue for PSC but just as well as we have no dosh.

Yes it is, the author clearly dates it 15 March 2019. It must be ready for annual figures.

And somebody dumped 150k @ 6.15

Yep HH its a great attitude in a CEO to be extremely cost conscious & doing everything possible to NOT dilute existing shareholders. There are so many CEOs that fail on both counts but not Dan.

Another interesting milestone will be the potential expiry of the small convertible loan that was rolled over till 18th April 2019 back in August 2018. The loan is convertible @2.75p. It will be interesting to see whether it is converted in the next 3 weeks or repaid by the company. It is only a small loan but of course dilutive if converted into a package of shares & warrants.

MK. It was a similar situation on Friday. Very little activity, but what that means? We are due 2018 figures & management report this week.

Should read: "..for the quarter ended 30 Sept 2018..."

The last COPL figures for the quarter ended 31 Sept 2018 showed $3.6m cash. So 9 months cash burn - we are now nearly 6 months on, so potentially have another 3+ months till cash absolutely runs out around end June. In other words Arthur has a degree of discretion regarding the timing of any placing, he does not 'have' to place in early April IF for example, news flow would make it better to place in early May. Whatever there can be no placing until after the release of 2018 annual figures as any placing prospectus needs to incorporate the latest figures.

Its indeed very interesting Vienna looks like a bunch of desperate shorters trying to drive the share down by repeating the same old de-ramping stories from last Thursday.

They must be very worried about news coming before a placing & having to cover well north of 1p, & maybe as high as 4p.

But is Harry 'real' or a cynical trader's cyber muppet - with a sob story - thats put into play to ramp/ de-ramp a share?

My main downer on today was I should have bought more.

Berta, look I dont know if there has been a leak, but seriously go back over todays postings - all these new guys repeatedly posting initially 'positive' stuff, and then circa 10.50 once a big sell (short?) was out of the way a stream of hysterical gibberish posting & re-posting articles that were negative but actually nothing to do with COPL or the current situation. We will never hear from these clowns again.

You know my record, I truly cant be painted as a COPL/Arthur patsy, everything I see says the process towards drilling OPL226 is continuing apace, I have no idea whether we will get a placing before or after the next news but for sure there is at least a good chance. As others have pointed out it once the potential of OPL226 becomes clear this becomes a mid sized oil company very very quickly. I was a buyer today the last trade for 800k was mine.