Member Info for Jiving

Look at the two year chart it has rightly collapsed down from over £12.50 to around a £1.

But in the last month it has been ceaselessly ramped up for no reason whatsoever. What happens when the rampers disappear as of course they surely will - back down it goes, spiralling down to single figures - pence that is not pounds.

Farm out - what farm out. The one this hopeless company's & CEO has not managed to deliver after years of living it up at shareholders expense. This time it going to be different, nonsense, the only difference this time is the failure will drive it down well below 1p.

This piece of garbage has been ceaselessly ramped in the last few weeks it is clearly going nowhere but down. Lets see what next week brings but I reckon a lot of red ink...

Disappointing rise on a good RNS - up around 1% now. Does not bode well for next week methinks.

I really think it would be a good idea for the company to let us know they are not going insolvent in less than 3 weeks time. However that needs to be phrased - due to confidentiality reasons etc they cant name the institutions involved etc blah blah. It seems to me its a pretty basic part of investor relations to assure shareholders there is going to be a company around after 21 May.

The shorter Bonum is now so desperate he has resorted to outright lying. Yesterday I had accepted the sense of other posters saying dont respond to the dishonest de-ramper but when he outright lies it is necessary to correct it.

"Jiving is NOW saying, the 0.10p Placing speculation will be 'the best news ever'"

Of course I posted exactly the opposite, which anyone but an obsessively dishonest shorter, can see I was referring to the simple reality that the fact of the company having only 20 days cash is that alternative finance is extremely likely in place and a placing is NOT likely. My actual text:

"Only 20 days cash before insolvency and only 6 days left to do a placing in time for the proceeds to be paid (2 week lag between placing announcement & actual payment) to the company to avoid insolvency. As a long term COPL shareholder I view this as some of the best news we have ever had.."

The 'talk' is actually one short/de-ramper retweeting another short/de-rampers new rumour. Anyway I thought the placing was going to be 0.07-0.08?

Only 20 days cash before insolvency and only 6 days left to do a placing in time for the proceeds to be paid (2 week lag between placing announcement & actual payment) to the company to avoid insolvency. As a long term COPL shareholder I view this as some of the best news we have ever had, because in practice it means alternative short term finance is firmly in place.

1. 25 May 2017 Placing.

The first 3 months of 2017 resulted in quarterly running costs of $900,000 or $300000 or a daily burn rate of $10,000. (ie interestingly, less than the current burn rate!)
The COPL cash balance on 31 March 2017 was $1,591,000, which represented 159 days cash at the previous burn rate.
54 days later on 25 May COPL announced a Placing. On that date they had 105 days cash left. Note - they planned, arranged and announced the Placing well before cash ran out.

2. 17 August 2018 Placing.

During 2018 COPL announced that their current burn rate was $400000 a month or a daily burn rate of $13150.
The quarterly figures to 30 June 2018 revealed a cash Balance of $1,736,000, which represented 132 days cash burn.
47 Days later on 17 August 2018 the company announced a Placing. On that date they had 85 days cash left. Slightly less than the prudent 90 days but close enough.

3. Situation 1 May 2019.

The latest accounts showed the company had $1,856,000 cash left on 31 December 2018. The current burn rate is again stated as being $400000 a month or a daily burn of $13150.
Therefore they entered 2019 with 141 days cash available.
120 days later, today 1 Mat 2019, the company has 21 days cash left.

4. Conclusion.

The company has shown with previous Placings that it seeks funds approximately 3 months before the date funds run out (previously 105 & 85 days cash left).The company as of today only has 21 days cash left yet no Placing announcement has been made. It seems highly likely that alternative means of short term finance have been made available to COPL to the satisfaction of both Management & the Board. If the funds form part of the vast OPL226 $200 million financial package no details can be announced until the Nigerian Government officially releases the approvals news.

Therefore as a practical matter it is highly likely that there will now be no Placing until after the news of OPL226 final approvals, licences, Service Provider & finance are announced.

COPL is running out of money, based on the most recent figures & using the company’s current daily ‘burn’ rate I estimate as of today 1 May 2019 we have 21 days cash left. So on or near 21 May the company will be insolvent if funds are not made available to it by then. If you examine the details of a placing you will see that the period from the placing announcement date to the actual payment of cash to the company is typically 14 days or more. So IF a placing were the means of stopping COPL becoming insolvent on 21 May we only have another 7 days to arrange it - in order to get the actual money into COPL’s account before 21 May insolvency day.

The most basic responsibility a company’s Management & Board have is to keep a company solvent and that means raising funds ahead of the date they become insolvent. Of course you cannot leave that until the last moment, particularly if you are reliant on equity placing, as the ability for small companies to raise funds can disappear in a market downturn. Elementary prudence, means nearly all companies seek to arrange finance at least 3 months/90 days before they literally run out of cash, to allow them time to seek alternative means of finance.

In recent history COPL has financed its ongoing running costs twice via equity placings - the first on 25 May 2017 & the second on 17 August 2018. There was also a third placing in between on 2 October 2017 which was intended to fund an investment opportunity in Canada. This did not transpire & the funds were instead used to fund ongoing running costs. The critical question I sought an answer to was - how many days running costs did the company have left on the date it announced the placing? This is the crucial issue - does COPL’s management usually act prudently and arrange a Placing some 3 months ahead or do they leave it to the very last minute with a only a couple of weeks cash remaining?

My methodology is quite simple - I take the last financial accounts prior to the placing, establish what the current monthly ‘burn’ rate is & then establish the daily burn rate. I then divide the cash left by the burn rate to establish how many days cash the company has from the date of the accounts. I deduct the period from the latest accounts to the placing date and that leaves the number of days cash COPL had left on the date it arranged funds.

'Bonum' you don't have any arguments (as in nil, zero, none) and you never have had, you simply endlessly repeat your deramping mojo of ".. a placings coming". Ignoring the current simple fact it increasingly look like there is no placing before the news of a huge $200 million deal. After that nobody will care about a placing but weeping snivelling shorts.

You are a 'One Track Wonder' the Elvis impersonator who can never get beyond "You ain't nothin' but a hound dog;You ain't nothin' but a hound dog;You ain't nothin' but a hound dog..." Thats not singing thats a short without a clue.

This ridiculous, obsessive de-ramper 'Bonum' has attempted to define posters as rampers & de-rampers. Now from the perspective of a speculative short term trader like Bonum he genuinely cannot comprehend that there is actually a third category namely shareholders!

I am in that category as are many others on this Board who he abuses and attacks as 'rampers'. Wrong, many of us have been here nearly two years (the Canadians more) and are invested as shareholders because we believe in the long term prospects of our company. So yes of course we are positive about our company & of course we see the good points - DUH thats why we invested! And guess what - thats why we argue for the reality of a huge deal coming soon on OPL226 that is going to send the share price catapulting.

Lots more to come from me tomorrow - I am not going to be shouted down by an ignorant de-ramper with a short term de-ramping agenda.

Now where can we expect the share price to go with that news?

Well in September 2017 the share price rocketed to 1.75p a share on rumours of financing being secured. With some 1.25 billion shares then outstanding (vs nearly 2.5b now) that gave a market cap of just under £22 million. Remember this £22m market cap was on rumours not actual hard news.

Now I dont think anyone understood - possible including Shorecan - how long & complicated the negotiations would be. But that £22m market cap was for one well producing 6-10,000 bopd not the revised FDA that is for four wells producing 6-10,000 bopd each ie potentially up to four times the amount anticipated back in 2017. We also have in addition a new asset, the Mozambique onshore oil/gas exploration concession. Located next door to two producing gas fields that are connected by pipeline to South Africa. Finally we have Arthur’s podcast hint of a new production asset - might this be another licence opportunity in Nigeria - would make sense….

So if COPL’s mkt cap jumped to £22m on rumour not news concerning one well for 6-10k bopd what might it jump to on actual news of approvals/finance for 4x that amount + Mozambique + a.n.other production asset. My hunch is eventually (ie in stages as realisation of the huge size of these assets occurs) it could rise to £100-125m market cap or on a 2.5b current share capital 4-5p per share prior to the drill.

Like a number of other posters I have been trying to figure out where we might expect the share price to go once OPL226 news finally come through. Of course that will also depend on how much news we initially receive.

This is what I believe we can look forward to:

- 'approvals' from NNPC/DPR including all licences
- related to above acceptance of Performance Bond
- identity of Service Provider (Schlumberger has been hinted at & Kola is a shareholder in their Nigerian subsidiary)
- details of the $200 million overall financing & who else besides the SP above is providing it; Trafigura et al..
- details of rig hire & when we can anticipate arrival over the Noa site
- fuller details of the new massively enhanced FDA for OPL226

More nonsense with a hint of pomposity ("as Tom Bulford of RHPS once explained..") added presumably to try to gain some much needed credibility. Yes I participated in the live auction which was itself delayed due to high volatility - most likely because of the giant 39.5m Buy order that was traded at the same price as my own Buy order fractions of a second before. Which means yes I have more actual, real information on the background to that Buy order than your de-ramping fantasies.

COPL has been 'ramped' ? You clearly do not understand the meaning of big words like 'ramp. The share price has dived from around 0.3p less than four month ago to a low of under 0.09p last week. A threefold fall in a share price over a period of a few weeks is not a 'ramp' but more likely the sign of a 'de-ramp'. That a share bounces (look it up) off an all time low that again is a normal natural reaction (ask Tom Bulford). It also likely means the smart shorters & de-rampers are booking their profits & closing their positions leaving behind the suckers who piled in too late & who are left wimpering with their losses.

It is noteworthy you have nothing to say about the state of the OPL226 transaction and the imminent closure of the transaction - massively re-rating this company's share price - 'sucker shorts' should scramble to cover fast.

A lecture in honesty from the Board's obsessive ignorant & dishonest de-ramper - you literally don't know the meaning of the word. Joker.

First off I 'know' the final auction was a Buy at 0.135p because it was my Buy for 1.99m @ 0.135p. The final auction price marks the clearing price at which late trades are done so given my order was a Buy at 0.135p it is highly likely the 39.5m Buy order that occurred fractions of a second later was also a Buy. So your explanation is plain WRONG and based on your hallmark ignorant, obsessive de-ramping, not on any understanding whatsoever.

Furthermore. A number of the long term investors like myself & Jay who post here have been invested for over 20 months because of the vast OPL226 oil field which is very shortly coming into production. So unlike ignorant dishonest short term de-rampers like you we take the trouble to understand what we are invested in and try to maintain contact with management. Yes I am broadly positive but there have been times I have been unhappy & negative - these are sentiments genuine investors will know. This project is essentially a 'done deal' the final dots & commas are being ironed out and an official announcement can be expected shortly. Bad news for dishonest de-rampers like you & good news for decent honest investors. A double whammy.

Interesting buy after the last auction result. The 1.99m @0.135 was a buy in the auction, so I assume the 39.5m @ 0.135p was as well. All to familiar pattern recently, a de-ramper works the Board in the day, potentially negatively affects sentiment then someone cleans up at a lower price at the end.

Well this is one so called shorter's twitter post from 25 April, obviously a smart clued up guy;

@Diamond_Horse_0
Apr 25

Hey BIG GOB, DOC HOLIGAY and HALAL BEL what’s the price on #COPL you ramping w@nkers

Increased short now at £22k

I notice there is a new quite lengthy memo available since 17 April on the Canadian SEDAR database. Entitled Management Information Circular it is background to the forthcoming AGM.
https://www.sedar.com/DisplayCompanyDocuments.do?lang=EN&issuerNo=00021327

10bag. I believe the 10% limit is for investors who hold via XOP in Canada. If you hold shares via the UK listing I believe the reporting limit is 5% as COPL is a non-UK company. If it were a UK company the usual limit of 3% would apply.
https://www.handbook.fca.org.uk/handbook/DTR/5/1.html

Adrian & Spooky I agree totally. This is a calculated gamble on creating a £1 billion company from the current £3m mkt cap. If/when we start to move towards that end result, nobody will give a toss about $400k a month it took to get there.