That squares with the conclusion I have come to following today's discussion with other Monday quarterbacks. Look at it from the perspective of the government bodies concerned (NNPC/DPR) who are named parties in this legal dispute - at least in their home country Nigeria. How can they proceed with approvals on a license the ownership of which is subject to a court case, until a judge (ie not one of the defendants!!) decides there is no case to answer in Nigeria. Without NNPC/DPR approvals there can be no public progress & no naming of the SP/Financier.
This may well have been the main cause for our never-ending delay not just the last couple of months but potentially since Essar was 'settled' (actually went silent, not the same thing) & NNPC granted license extensions way back in October.
I would genuinely love to be definitively (ie officially) contradicted on the above.
Very good point NoEasy after all we have recent direct experience of a commercial dispute impacting on the SP/finance when the Essar dispute went 'hot' - having previously been dismissed as a nuisance - and the SP we were promised in a month has still not materialised over 9 months later!
A dispute which is in a court of law has to be classified as a 'commercial dispute' surely with possible impact on both government approvals & SP/finance.
Also the idea that the Agamore dispute can't be mentioned as that might give Agamore 'encouragement' or whatever, is surely a nonsense, they know exactly what they are doing & don't need confirmation from COL or anybody else as to the effect its having with the timetable. The only people being left in the dark is us shareholders - who coincidentally are actually 'owners' not 'fans'.
The easiest way for the COPL team coach to stop the Monday morning quarterbacks is to issue a clear & unambiguous statement that the Agamore case has no effect on the NNPC/DPR approvals process. Regardless of how long it continues in Lagos or London it has no impact on NNPC/DPR decision making.
Thanks for the Arthur reply Guitar. The one thing Arthur never clearly states is that the Agamore case is not an impediment to the NNPC/DPR granting final approvals. That is the crux of the issue, I will take his word that its a nonsense case but their purpose was never to 'win' but to delay.
Great post Ploppylad. Agamore is the big unsettling factor in my mind, that they have a poor case (so we are told, not seen a lawyers opinion to that effect!) is immaterial, they are fighting a war of attrition that they are potentially winning. IF case dismissed on Thurs and news begins to emerge next week we have a good indicator it is/has played a key part in the delay.
RE: Schlumberger stake in Moroccan gas19 May 2019 16:44
Thanks RK. The Schlumberger effect is mega, sometimes in the case of Sound it can be overdone. But imagine the reaction to a Schlumberger announcement on a company with a mkt cap of £3.3m. IMO we are worth north of £100m based on our current status, with the crucial license extensions - on the announcement of a 'mega package' we are worth way way north of that. Permission is for 4 wells off 1 rig, plus expansion across a vast oil rich area. The current mkt cap is an irrelevance. There is no placing.
RE: Schlumberger stake in Moroccan gas19 May 2019 11:27
I see Sound have a mkt cap of £185m @ current share price of 17.6p, price has been as high as 46.9p in last 12 months. Interesting figures vs COPL's £3.3m.
Great find NoEasy. Agamore are very shady & their case is very shaky, but I still wonder what effect the mere existence of a lawsuit concerning OPL226 ownership has on Govt bureaucrats who we are now told are trying to do everything 'by the book'.
I am bullish about COPL in a big way but having been invested here nearly 2 years, there have been many times when the share price has jumped 20% in a trading day, only to regress back the same amount the next day. Maybe this time it will be different, but the only thing that genuinely changes things is the expected RNS. Till then MM games & rumour.
I think the alternative finance is highly likely to be a debt/equity financing. If you look at the Trafigura financing deal in July 2018, the 2 year $30-50m facility also came with an equity kicker in the shape of a 'free' 2 year warrant into COPL for $3m worth of shares. Crucially the exercise price for the warrant was only to be fixed "on the date of the closing of the Facility".
This means the warrant exercise price is fixed after the news announcement & all the details are made public - ie at a hell of a higher price than the current market price involving consequently dramatically less dilution.Thus equity is potentially used in a 'smart' way to maximise proceeds whilst minimising dilution - infinitely better than a placing in these circumstances. Something similar may emerge when the package is announced with equity being used as a kicker to a largely debt structured finance.
R_Dunc I had understood one more hearing would happen in Nigeria. Which would then leave the decision to Agamore whether to pursue it via the UK courts as set out in the documentation. I had not heard that they had actually taken that step.
Another thing tosskasel you missed your old sign off of "atb" at the end of the message. Seen that on a number of posts here recently from a certain poster.
OK so who advised you - the company, Cathy, the Courts. Seriously, someone 'advised' you, well who? We need a source or link, no harm if its true right....
Tosskosel. Please could you let us know your source (link?) for the Agamore news.
"The(so called) Agamore court case which is scheduled,i believe, to occur in London this Friday will serve to guide and inform those of us with any interest in the near term future of this ambitious 'little' company."