Member Info for Jiving

Look at the whole wretched bunch of them, most of them never posted on here till they started shorting a few weeks ago, no clue about the company of course, but suddenly 'concerned' about a placing. What a pathetic bunch, the smart shorters have covered its only the dummies left as we can see - congratulations.

Turns up knowing nothing about the company, but knowing all about the 'placing' and is a sudden expert of pricing.

I think we are getting the bottom of the shorting barrel here, the smart ones were selling at 0.30 & 0.20. The wannabe's are shorting just when the smart ones are covering - there is no downside mileage left but massive upside danger to shorters in the event of OPL226 news.

Matures on 18 April 2019. The exercise price is set at 2.75p (ie right where we are now). It will be interesting what he does as he has the right to convert into a unit of 1 share plus 1 warrant with a five year life also exercisable at 2.75p. Essentially the warrants are 'free'.

Harry the Heritage news is from 2012. The company was taken over in 2014 for £900m largely because of the Nigerian oil assets bought two years earlier. It is actually a very relevant transaction for us - the London listed Heritage worked with Kola Karim to acquire troubled Nigerian oil assets. Once they had them properly up & running the Qataris stepped in to buy the non-Nigerian element owned by Heritage.

Yes there are obvious analogies with our situation - same partner, making a 'bad' asset into a productive asset & very quickly afterwards (heavy difficult work having been done) international oil companies swoop in to buy.

Wrong again - COPL need not have "..funds available from COPL" a bank guarantor in Canada could typically & cheaply fulfil that role & obligation. You clearly have no clue how surety bonds work in theory or practice - they are a form of insurance not a form of credit and indeed are often written by insurance companies not banks.

Which is no surprise you follow in the footsteps of the last 3-4 weeks of shorters who post a half-understood scare story before the market opens. We have had fake old news about licences being taken away, the possibility of a placing over exaggerated, and now deliberate misrepresentation of a performance bond that has already been structured & agreed - ie its a done deal!

The Performance Bond needed by the Nigerian authorities is not a Letter of Credit but an entirely different financial instrument. The Bond works by paying an upfront commission to the issuer (s) and for a $7m bond will be around 1%, it does not involve anything to do with 'funds being arranged' but simple payment of the bond commission once the Nigerians indicate the Bond meets their criteria. Nothing whatsoever to do with any COPL financing via a placing or any other method.

Never seen you on here before & 4 posts in 2 hours, "Desperate Shorters."

The Performance Bond does not need any further financial contribution or cover from COPL. Everything is entirely satisfactorily in place with no further financial imposition on either COPL or Shoreline.

The usual giveaway shorter profile, new to the board, turns up with a badly researched scare story before opening. Same old.

Which makes Nigerian Bonnie over $70 a barrel. With Noa costs estimated at $15 a barrel that leaves $55 for offtake, Schlumberger, Essar, Nigerian Govt & Shorecan. The economics of this are stunning which is why it will happen, yep its all about timing announcement.

Ha NoEasy I wonder what kind of Nigerian would order pizza from the UK probably the polo playing billionaire type?

A month ago when the shorters first targeted the share, selling at 0.20 ish & buying back or covering later, has clearly been a profitable trade. But selling or shorting around current levels looks a very one sided gamble to me - if a placing goes ahead you may 'make' 0.02 or 0.03 buying in, but if news comes first you will be scrambling with everyone else, including desperate shorts, to get in under 1.00p.

The only people who will get in at the placing price will be the placees, where the share price will go once the placing is done would be interesting, could be sharply upward not downward once placing risk has been taken off the table.

Re-placing, he does have other options particularly if it is a matter of bridge financing for literally a few weeks till news. On a worse case basis of a placing it is likely to be for a few months operating costs rather than nearly 10 months last time.

Arthur in his August podcasts continually mentioned Schlumberger. They are comfortable with Nigeria, & are providing $700 million to finance the Anyalu field next door to OPL226. Our JV partner Shoreline has a 17% stake in Schlumberger's Nigerian subsidiary. Imagine the impact of Schlumberger emerging as the Service Provider on OPL226? That or a similar big name as SP could be only a few weeks away....

He pretty much confirms what we had worked out - the Bond is the final approvals step then its go. Rig hire in the context of getting it into service very quickly.

They have detailed to the NNPC all the contractors they want to use - which would again indicate the SP must be in place. Otherwise you would be introducing theoretical sub contractors & their costings only to have them torn up if an SP that actually won the service contract wanted things done differently using their preferred sub contractors & costings. I cannot rationalise how you would get this far without an SP in place.

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/stocktube/12821/canadian-overseas-petroleum-now-poised-for-production-in-the-niger-delta-12821.html

I also thought the Friday update was positive. The Bond strikes me as the very end game of the approval/licensing process. A bit like buying a flight or a pizza online - you pay at the end when you have finished the order. Similarly the Rig hire by an unnamed third party - again it suggests that operational planning is proceeding at full tilt & its the final stages of the documentation process that is lagging behind.

I note that the Agamore Nigerian court case is supposedly coming to an end on 17 April, has this been a 'legal' holdup all along? From MD&A:
"The parties are expecting a ruling on the application on April 17, 2019."

The Harryman creation (real or cyber creation?) assisted the shorters on Friday & then like them disappeared - job done.

Agree completely R_Dunc - at current market capitalisation virtually any alternative forms of finance is preferable to an equity placement. Shareholders in contact with Arthur should make that point.

I am just hoping we have seen the back of 2p. Modest expectations = minimal disappointments.

NoEasy. We are suffering from a combination of negatives - time delay, volatile oil price and horrendous investor relations. Now Arthur can't do very much about the first two but he can change the current catastrophic investor relations approach. It is the one variable entirely in his control - and he needs to basically do the opposite of what he is doing at the moment. I have never seen such negativity towards a company, their prospects & their management as I have in this company & this share.

No NoEasy you are not missing anything indeed you are seeing everything.

Today has been an absolute total 100% investor relations meltdown - people simply dont believe a word you say or promise any longer. I dont know what advice you have had over the last 2 years from Investor Relations but whatever it was it has been absolutely & conclusively 100% wrong. Past promises that have not materialised (most recently in August 2018 '..a service provider named in a month.") simply cant be ignored as if they have never been made.

You cannot promise and never deliver - or actually worse not even bother to explain why you cant deliver - time after time. In the end, you end up where we are now - you have negative credibility even when the message you are trying to send is actually positive.