Member Info for Jiving

Tiger, as an ex-HUM shareholder myself I share a lot of your concerns. Which other gold miners do you feel are better quality at the moment?

Berta. All great points & you & the other Canadian posters have been consistently right regarding Arthur, timetables, pretty much everything. If we get back to a July 2012 share price (on the chart roughly around C$17c or approx 10p) some time in next 2-3 years I think we could be happy.

So very true Rift, there are many capable CEOs in smaller listed oil companies as well as AAOG, Dave Wall at 88e and Steve Staveley at UPL come to mind. We could frankly do a lot lot worse as shareholders than to be taken over by one of those companies, & swap our shares for the merged company shares. Keep Arthur as Director of Oil Production & Exploration and installing a capable CEO & CFO and maybe COO above him.

I just clicked on COPL Media above and the following caught my eye, below the new podcast:
"EXCLUSIVE: #COPL to announce a service provider agreement 'within a month'"

Aim. Yesterday had the characteristics of a pump & dump. Price driven up 30% and then back down it comes. As an LTH I believe pump & dump operations harm the long term share price by drawing in interested shareholders and then leaving them with almost instant losses. Others, perhaps including yourself, may take a different view - there are different views on this issue as on many others, which I hope you recognise.

As above I am wary of anything that may cause a p&d, and for example some of Aberdeenman's 'research' appeared designed to do just that last year. Overall I am absolutely in favour of new facts emerging for us to discuss & determine the relevance of - of course that does imply that not all will agree with your interpretation or indeed mine.

However I am actually happiest with the info Dan provides & the explanations he provides. The Board has a clear idea of strategic direction & a clear aim of securing an eventual takeover, as a LTH I see long term value coming via that mechanism. I very much hope we get to the stage (perhaps with the appointment of a broker) where we can have published research from a broker(s), that we can rely on & that is produced by a named CFA in accordance with current regulations. An example would be the Beaufort Securities research on NFX produced by Ben Maitland over a year ago on NFX.

BB. Well we never know with Arthur the exact timing & possible short term needs, & he is in London giving interviews now. But as I mentioned yesterday including the year end audited accounts in the placing prospectus would be legally the easiest way of putting up to date financial info into the prospectus. Accounts are due early March, which would tally with the "..in or prior to April.." mentioned last August.

BB. The end Sept accounts showed $3.6m left. Which at the old burn-rate of $400k pm is 9 months worth or until June 2019. Arthur flagged April as a potential placing landmark in the August prospectus so he may have been anticipating a need to raise funds for OPL226 and/or Mozambique. Like you a new acquisition worries me, unless it is just notional.

The milestone payments are only paid IF the milestones are met, two separate parts. They are not cash in the bank.

Today the share price comes back down following yesterday's p & d.

Berta. You are right its going to be a slower road to success & expansion going forward. Undoubtably there will be another placing in 2019 (which we already knew). By year end 2019 the market cap will be built around 2400-4000 bopd to COPL from the first well, the expansion opportunities going forward on OPL226 & the exploration prospects in Mozambique. Provided we get positive feedback from the SPA's in next couple months its not all bad news, just slower & resulting in a lower mkt cap this year than we might have - perhaps over-optimistically - hoped recently could be achieved.

Yesterday was a blow but this morning I have recovered somewhat, and adjusted my targets going forward to the new reality. Would be interested to hear other LTH's views having slept on it.

Baserite. The only thing that never changes is Arthur's arrogance coupled with Arthur's repeated failures - I am sure a psychiatrist could link the two.

SM. No indeed, and instead of an actual SPA that does an actual deal maybe we will get 'talks' with with 5 or 6.

ResearchAnalyst1. Thanks for your rapid reaction after the market has closed and over 8 hours since your first post.

Well you seem very well versed in LSE regulations, so an opining individual registering out of working-day hours would know he had a 'get out of jail card' by registering on a Saturday. Yes indeed you posted on the little used ADVFN on Friday but why not post simultaneously on LSE?

So having not posted for 8 hours now you post within 10 minutes (now the market is shut). Now you are here please could you give us any links to your research.

What I don't understand ResearchAnalyst1 is why you specifically posted at 8.02 at the beginning of the trading week and not say Saturday or Sunday evening after you had registered for the first time ? If your motive was to share information why that very very specific time?

I wonder what Howard Stanley Marks might have opined about that? Or Monsieur Al Capone or Monsieur Opining?

NoEasy. OK understood, these are trying times for all of us with big stakes here, tempers get strained.

I worked in finance for a long time. Regularly 'people/companies' try to get letters/indications from prominent banks - say 'Euro Bank' - which they then attempt to use to gain advantage with third parties. Now I am not saying that happened here. But what is possible is that in advance of the necessary placing COPL went out into the market and got a 'term sheet', that was then released 2-3 weeks before the placing as 'proof' of progress. A 'proof' depressingly I now see regurgitated 6 months later. In answer to an earlier point I don't see this as a sign we 'have' finance for the project, but that we are still seeking it.

Soup. Thanks for that, he/she has not provided any more info there than here. Whether the person posting as ResearchAnalyst1 is the same we cannot be sure, and why ResearchAnalyst1 posted specifically at 8.02 on a Monday on this Board we equally cannot be sure.

Aim.

First off when someone ramps or de-ramps a share actually thats bad for LTH & they are not doing it for the good of shareholders or the company but simply for short term trading profits. Then on the next.

Second, I agree that this is a smart company, with smart management with a great patent portfolio & potential product base. The co-crystal concept fast-tracks us through hurdles that otherwise delay & cost other biotech companies. That plus the management (& their equity commitment) is why I am happily invested, even though I am under water. I see the world as it is not through glasses that only shown 'positive'.

BUT ramping & de-ramping never helps anyone but short term traders. You NEVER seem to get that.

Aim.

We have no idea even whether this is a 'research note'. If it is why not name the source, include a link?

I am positive on this share which is why I have been invested in it for a year now.

It looks to me like a classic ramp (not necessarily by the old gang) a new poster posts at 8.02, yep right why not Saturday afternoon or Sunday night? It may well be. that as Petty notes 2p is a classic trading bottom for NFX, others will have also likely noted that & 'might' have acted accordingly.

Many times I have stated that I do not believe ramping has helped NFX, indeed quite frankly I think it has hindered not helped the long term share price by drawing in new investors then dashing their hopes.

NoEasy. Sadly for the second time today your posts are deliberately distorting mine. I have always viewed you as a straight guy who has posted great analysis & info - until now.

1. I have never doubted that the Term Sheet exists & that it is NOT a fabrication & that the parties to it are real & have committed to its contents. What I separately question is firstly, the timing of its release in the run up to the August pump & dump. Timing tells a tale:
30 July 2018 - Term Sheet announced
Early August - Arthur podcasts (Arthur in London - it is surely possible/likely Arthur meets brokers/lawyers etc)
17 August - COPL share placing

Furthermore I do indeed contend that it is quite possibly not a normal necessary step in obtaining overall financing for the project but could potentially have been created & publicised in order to create a positive story for the imminent placing. I have two related concerns with it - it is indeed a Shorecan instrument but the huge costs of this facility fall entirely (in equity terms) on COPL who face a vast $3m dilution through the issue of warrants to the consortium. Second, the explanation in one of those podcasts that it might seem strange to secure 'rear end' finance first - yes indeed it does.

2. I would love some input from oil industry people on whether this 2 stage finance is the norm in these circumstances. However a huge recent Nigerian example is very pertinent - the giant financing deal on the Anyala & Mayu fields with Schlumberger did not seem to involve multiple financing parties but just Schlumberger who financed the $1.08 billion project by a combination of direct finance of $724m & off-take finance of $358m. Seemingly no banks, no commodity traders were involved in add-on packages for this billion dollar transaction. The same kind of overall financing deal I suspect could eventually emerge for OPL226.

When the final approvals news is issued through the correct channels I will believe it 100%. Just as I have repeatedly never questioned or queried the news of the October PSC extensions, indeed as a point of record I was the first one to post the contents & highlight their significance after the November interims. Regarding whether we have financing for the project, no we don't as the RNS today made clear " Project financing for ShoreCan due to be completed by the end of Q2".

PC. Also it seems that Research Analyst1 - an LSE member since 26.01.19, makes 3 posts bang on opening that are very bullish, but doesn't respond to praise & queries from LTH on the Board (will he reappear?). A bunch of short term traders then appears some with the 15-40p price targets beloved of rampers, and the share price rockets 30% when we are no nearer to any news than we were on Friday. I just hope this isn't another ramp, that draws in new investors, who then exit disappointed a few days/weeks later.

IP. However if Arthur is now currently in London, I would revise my thoughts on placing timing.

NoEasy. Trafigura is not a service provider and neither is Bank of Mauritius - I never stated they were or implied that they were. Don't see things that aren't there.

As I stated in my last message on the issue I am questioning why an SPA would not cover all aspects of the financing. Looking at other offtake agreements in Nigeria this was the case & there was no need to include an international commodity trader because Nigerian crude is a highly marketable commodity that can be sold when produced. Having experienced Arthur's deceitful information releases in the past, particularly in the weeks before a placing, I am sceptical of everything he says - it would be frankly irrational not to be.