Member Info for Jiving

Thanks for all the replies. I often post a 'Devils Advocate' scenario because I actively want to hear contrary opinions, arguments & above all get new 'facts' if they exist. Indeed a few months ago after an exchange with R_Dunc where he produced a crucial new fact as well as accompanying arguments, I turned from a seller to a buyer. I see the case for a positive outcome to OPL226 - really I do - particularly in light of the last independently confirmed fact we have, namely the NNPC PSC extension in Oct 2018. But there are still a number of factors that could wreck progress - the elections, problems with finance, unknown unknowns...

Brady's point about Arthur dual motivations his 'legacy' and shareholders is a great one. I see him placing his legacy/ego way way ahead of shareholders interests. Arthur has continually topped up on the way down - using a fraction of the money paid him as salary to do so, he can also issue options to himself & others when he chooses. So Arthur has actually immunised himself from the financial effects of the share price collapse that his calamitous decisions & behaviour have created.

On the positive side I can accept Arthur is technically a good oilman (confirmed by getting Exxon, Kola in as partners). On the negative he has been a catastrophic COPL CEO (thus far over 9+ years); & the CEO with the worst shareholder relations I have ever come across. Finally I view him as a fundamentally rotten human being, who lacks elementary human courtesy in explaining why his promises & timetables have not come to fruition. Elementary courtesy is something you should learn in childhood right after toilet training, ie if you arrange to meet someone in a pub at 8.00 & don't turn up - yes you owe them an explanation, of course you do.

R_Dunc. The problem is once again we are running out of time, the August Prospectus actually gave us April as a placing date. Yet again, yet again we are going down to the wire & long term holders are understandably furious to be yet again in the same frustrating situation. Arthur releases nothing officially and dribbles info out to a selected few favourites & via IR but never anything official & substantive. Of course he always has a bunch of excuses to belatedly explain (usually just before a placing) why nothing has happened - its like listening to 'why the train is running late' - leaves on the track, signal problems at Crewe, rogue elephants at Watford Junction.

We are exactly where no sane person would want us to be, going into a tight, competitive election with one candidate actually putting the NNPC in his line of fire. Arthur knew that, all parties knew that, and still they assed around over a transaction that clearly needed to have been signed by the end of 2018 as Arthur indicated in an autumn email. Incidentally I know we hope/believe that financing is 'in' but as ever that has never been confirmed even unofficially that I am aware.

I very much appreciate your research & the great stuff you have dug up, but nothing makes up for Arthurs continued failure to keep us informed, some of his excuses may be true others false, but I note Arthur always seems able to find a form of words to get around 'restrictions' when it suits him. It just never suits him to keep us informed.

Indi. You were right a week ago in your March prediction (at best). I apologise for disagreeing with you, optimism & confirmation bias overcame me & I ignored the grim reality of Arthur, Nigeria and an election. A week later I realise that.

Sorry to see you got zapped although I believe that was due to events on another forum not this one.

Good points IH. Dan's model for NFX was that it should largely be self financing (a great positive for shareholders as it minimises dilution of course), and although we have had a couple of time delays he has delivered on that & on the results. By the standards of UK smaller company CEO's that puts him in the Top 1%.

Amnesic. Those Wick posts were some of the most useful & informative posts I have ever seen posted on LSE.

The primary short term hope must now be with Tunisia. Like mikemike I fear that Sarawak cannot progress until the division of federal/state powers between Malaysia/Sarawak is mutually resolved & agreed. Once it is then UPL is superbly positioned & Steve has done a superb job positioning the company.

RK. Indeed why wouldn't Buhari want a very rare piece of positive economic news announced before an election where the campaign against him is based on his poor economic showing. Election date in 31 days time.

Dont see why there should be a placing. The 27 November RNS confirmed receipt of the £500k payment from NSB. Given the company's low outgoings that should see us through till the next payment. Thats been the plan all along I thought.

It is extraordinary that this listing manoeuvre can seemingly completely disenfranchise FLYBE investors. A company's assets can be sold off without direct shareholder approval & just leave behind a worthless rump. London 'regulation' is sub sub Third World (no insult to the Third World intended).

Indi. Your list is a summary of everything that has gone wrong with OPL226 in the last 18 months. However based on the information painfully extracted from Arthur this week, I believe we on the cusp of approval. I have been a long term sceptic & critic of the shambles we have had inflicted upon us, but I now genuinely believe we are 95% done & only the final minor amendment are awaiting final final approval. A full announcement should come in days, at most a couple of weeks, certainly not months.

We must assume the SPA (s) with finance will have been agreed prior to the submission of the final FDP & operating plan to the NNPC. The NNPC has apparently approved it in principle & we await the last approval of minor amendments. Agamore & Essar Mauritius have done their damage & appear not to be currently factors in the process. The Nigerian elections could potentially have scuppered everything, even at this stage, had the Kola donation been true but it was false (why no simple denial was not issued God knows). It looks to me like we are finally at the place we have hoped/dreamed of ever since we invested in COPL - approval with finance on a major Nigerian oil field,in which COPL owns 40% - is about to happen.

Absolutely stinks - but it will never get investigated.

HarryMann is back! It is an Omen. Now I know, news next week for sure.

Keith Everitt is the obvious guy to lead the opposition to Branson's ripoff 1p offer. With his stake he could be the cornerstone of a blocking vote.

Agreed its great news, the offtake arrangements with the SPA & BOM syndicate will get paid off faster with a higher oil price. Then Shorecan can start to get revenue.

NE. We definitely need a revised FDP but again as that is a key aspect of the NNPC process of course we must await approval first. I actually hope there is a gap from first announcement to an FDP announcement so that we can potentially have a second burst of activity & upward share price movement.

Given the way the NNPC pushed for a more aggressive initial drill hopefully they will have adopted a generally more aggressive & expansionary stance for the rest of OPL226's development. More oil = more Nigerian jobs = more Nigerian tax revenue. Can't help thinking that would be a useful message to get out in an election campaign where the President's opponent's main criticism is the lack of economic growth.

There was some discussion yesterday about Arthur's initial drilling scheme. If you go to the Proactive interview from 1 August 2018 from minute 22.00 Arthur describes an initial horizontal well followed by two high angle wells next door to it.

Great stuff R_Dunc thanks for sharing. So fake news isn't just in the West it seems. If we strip the political out of the situation its looking good. As ever the problem is that Arthur fails to communicate with shareholders in the right way, & seems feels no obligation to explain why timetables he has given need to be extended, but 'thats Arthur'.

R_Dunc. Good luck with your digging. Kachikwu used to be also head of the NNPC but was replaced by Baru in 2016. As you point out Buhari cant be involved in day to day DPR affairs as well as 'run' the country. But given his position as President/Minister he can probably intervene if/when he chooses. Will a purely administrative decision be made giving OPL226 the final go ahead - we must hope so, but we can't know so. Like you & others I strongly suspect everything is most likely in place & awaiting the final clearance from the NNPC.

Hi R-Dunc. I believe that Kachikwu is Minister of State for Petroleum, whilst Buhari is Minister of Petroleum (ie his direct boss). Two sources for that:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cabinet_of_Nigeria
https://www.nigeriagalleria.com/Nigeria/Federal-Ministries-and-Ministers.html

It looks to me like Buhari is stage centre as far as ministerial assent re oil business goes. I agree with NoEasy's take on the political implications of Kola's huge donation & its timing.

R-Dunc. Regarding DPR approval for the Essar Nigeria transfer of ownership to Shorecan the August 2018 Prospectus includes the following on Page 22 under Risk Factors. 1.9 Permits, Licences, Approvals and Authorisations. This seems to indicate that Ministerial approval has not actually formally been given, the DPR presumably reports to the Petroleum Minister - who is Buhari?

"By way of example, the Department of Petroleum Resources in Nigeria takes the view that ShoreCan’ s acquisition of 80% of the issued share capital of Essar Nigeria, described in greater detail below, requires ministerial consent in order to effectively transfer the interest in OPL 226 owned by Essar Nigeria. Application for consent has been filed and ShoreCan is awaiting the outcome but the Directors believe consent will be forthcoming."

"Failure to obtain Nigerian ministerial consent for the OPL 226 Transaction could result in ShoreCan being required to dispose of its shares in Essar Nigeria although the Directors believe they might also have a range of other options to satisfy any ministerial concerns about OPL 226 such as bringing in another farm-in partner."

Well Kola may have given to both. But Arthur has not specified the size of Buhari's 'donation' whilst the vast US$30 million donation to Atiku was splashed across the press 27-28 December, making him appear a key supporter 'exploding' Atiku's campaign:
https://darelasisionline.com/ibadan-billionaire-kola-karim-explodes-atiku-presidential-campaign-with-30m-donation/
http://cyberreporters.com/2018/12/29/oil-magnate-kola-karim-backs-atikus-campaign-with-30-5-million/

Kola is potentially buying access to a vast post election selloff of national assets including oil-field rights & nationalised industries IF Atiku wins. OPL226 is small beer compared to that potential. Immediate prospects for OPL226 might have been sacrificed for Kolas medium term wealth.

Many of us feared our deal running into the Nigerian election campaign & the unforeseen consequences that could flow from it. Arthur needed to get this deal done by Xmas & potentially we could have avoided these problems. Whatever, we are once again at the mercy of larger events, over which Arthur has no control.