Member Info for Jiving

Well Kola has put his bet on Atiku in a big way. Arthur may say he has also backed Buhari but not for anything like that amount presumably? Noeasy reading the Nigerian press on this I would say our chances of getting approval pre-election are now very very low. Buhari is Petroleum Minister as well as President, his daughter is a Director of the NNPC. If Buhari wins bad news, if Atiku wins then months of delays whilst new Govt & NNPC get on their feet.

Is this the latest Essar type disaster to hit us?

Mozambique is clearly the hotspot for gas exploration in Africa. Took this from the ENI site, 25% of a Moz gas field = $2.8b:

"In December 2017, Eni and ExxonMobil closed the sale of a 25% indirect interest in the Area 4 block, offshore Mozambique, through a sale of 35.7% stake in Eni East Africa (EEA). The agreed terms, based on the agreements of March 2017, include a cash price of approximately $2.8 billion.."

Like others I hope Mozambique comes after OPL226 and helps upward momentum with the vast potential it represents.

Baserite is that aimed at me? If so I am not bashing anything but Arthur's consistent failure to keep to his stated timetables. Something he has been doing now for the last 20 months I have been invested here and looking at his dismal record essentially since he joined the company. The COPL share price goes down because of the consistent failure of Arthur to deliver, it is down some 400-fold since 2009 - that is not due to me or anyone else posting but due to Arthur's serial failure to deliver any oil, ever. This is a 'discussion' board not a rampers forum, I am discussing a share I am invested in pro's & con's - ie what the board is set up for, go set up a rampers forum if you don't like it.

I dont think it there is a 0% likelihood Arthur will get a deal by 16 February, but clearly neither is it 100%. So its somewhere between the two, given Arthur's dismal record I reckon the chances of a deal are between 20-30%, others may see a different %. Great would love to hear their rationale.

So nothing again. I wonder how many of the 'negotiators' are on holiday, where is Arthur skiing or on the beach?

If the parties concerned couldn't be fagged to get it sorted before year end I can't see why they would get it done in the first couple of weeks of January. My last flagging hope is for mid January, but we are now over 5 months away from Arthur's 'SPA in a month' remarks, so why should it happen now. We don't even know anything is actually happening maybe we met another obstacle (like Essar or maybe even Essar again) that is blocking any progress. Kola obtaining the licence extensions from the NNPC was the last actual piece of progress we have been notified of. Given we are now on the 3 January what are the odds we get it done by 16 February election - 20%, 30% ?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-28/oil-bulls-cap-wackiest-year-end-in-decade-with-bet-on-2019-rally

Brady you are sadly right, if this was any CEO other than Arthur, OPL226 is an open goal, given Arthurs dismal record its just as likely to be an own goal. Will Arthur bother to update the shareholders he has spun along for so long - no chance.

MM. Frankly I have given up hope that there will be any announcement in 2018. Looks increasingly likely to me that yet again, yet again, we have been deliberately led down the garden path by King Arthur on timing. Sub-Mariners timetable & rationale look as likely as any others I have seen, thanks for posting SM.

Of course I hope an RNS appears in the next 11 days or the first couple of weeks of January but its hasn't appeared in all of October, all of November and two-thirds of December. As ever nobody involved seems to have the slightest sense of urgency, when the whole world can see potential catastrophe looming in the form of the Nigerian elections in February.

I know where you are coming from Bob but I am honestly not sure its for the best if the big RNS landed the week after Xmas - the markets are dead as a doornail then, and when everyone comes back after the NY our news would be old news. After this lengthy, expensive, frustrating wait we need active markets to get the kind of mega reaction the news merits. So next couple of days or early Jan IMO.

Would be really nice for us shareholders to be updated formally or informally (email) on Agamore, whether it was another no-show, why the judge doesn't call an end to the shambles etc etc

No stock allocated at full offer price of 0.32.

Minister of State for Petroleum Resources, Dr Ibe Kachikwu, yesterday said that Nigeria’s crude oil production is expected to increase from current average of 2 million barrels per day to 2.5 million barrels per day by the end of 2019.
https://leadership.ng/2018/12/14/nigeria-crude-oil-production-to-hit-2-5mbd-in-2019-kachikwu/

If you want to increase production by 25% in 12 months you really really need to start approving projects in December 2018 ASAP.

R-Dunc do you have any comment on the resistance level of 0.34, any TA input very welcome?

Does the anyone know the name/exchange/method whereby you can trade in NFX outside the five LSE auctions? AIM & small caps used to trade on Plus Markets but that finished a couple of years ago. I know Hargreave and others you can trade right through the day and wondered how they did it?

It is good to see it edging up. 0.335p is of course an important price level as it was the August placing price so disgruntled investors can now get out flat should they chose - we may see some churn here. Be interesting to see where we close, but its the red dot on RNS we need for it to really move.

Am I right in thinking COPL trades via another exchange or method? My main broker is stuck in the hateful LSE auction system that limits you to five specific times a day, i am trying to point them in a better direction. Tks.

Sadly i think we do have to start trying to work out what the Nigerian election could mean for OPL226, both in the period leading up to the 16th February election & the aftermath.

Lead-up: there is a danger that all govt decision making gets politicised with accusations of corruption etc possibly getting bandied around, particularly for oil deals. As the major criticism of Buhari by his opponents seems to focus on his lack of economic development, there may still be some small political impetus to get this deal finalised & publicised.

After the election is over it clearly depends on the result. Buhari wins, it is likely business as usual with little changes to the NNPC or ministers concerned. If his opponent wins, then does that mean for example all ministers resign? Would he immediately replace the head of the NNPC? I could see real chaos if this happened, months of delays & uncertainty. Whatever it takes it looks like we urgently need a deal before 16 February, if January passes with no deal I will be very very concerned.

3 million shares at a rock bottom 2.25p, lucky investor!
Amazed it has not pushed the price up not down!

On uk.investing.com its showing nearly 3.5m traded by 11.30.

Berta

For me the key news that indicated we were actually very close to finally getting everything together was the announcement of the NNPC licence extension in October. This gave us independent confirmation that detailed negotiations were going on between Shorecan & the NNPC on OPL226 & that these talks were likely proceeding because the SP & accompanying finance were in hand. Thus I conclude that Arthur/Kola are in the final rounds of complicated 3-4 way talks between Shorecan (operator); NNPC (regulator); Service Provider (+ finance); & most likely Bank Mauritius syndicate (back-end finance).

As the NNPC takes a very detailed interest in the minutiae of agreements, costs of rig hire etc I could imagine an awful lot of to'ing & fro'ing taking place between all parties. From afar I get the impression there is momentum behind this now with all parties & my hunch is all want it out of the way before the February elections.

PC. Yes 'IPF' not 'IDF'.

I know Dan has outlined medical advantages of NXP002 versus some of its competitors, but a more detailed explanation of where it fits in vs the drugs he has pointed to in deals would be helpful.

Indi. Not worried about others beating us on co-crystal just hoping the market for our creation (s) is there by the time we come to market.

Jay. Pharmaxis is a v interesting company that looks to be where NFX aspires to be in a couple of years time ie they have a royalty income flow & a big deal that they are working through different phases & getting their payments.