Member Info for jimtheknow

SF, in may ways you are right, except for the bad taste CERP leaves. We could have done exactly the same without them, at a higher sp and therefore less dilution. A placing is no surprise and one of sorts had to happen in some way, but until we shown different it would appear there were better ways to do it without CERP in tow. We all know in the current oil climate we are still going to be dead in the water if P#1 is a duster, with or without CERP.

We continue to patiently await the magic we're expecting as a result of the CERP deal.

The world was different pre extreme Covid. And surely we must have had a farm-in ready just prior to that drill date, it simply does not compute we were as ready to drill as what they say; without a signed rig contract, without insurance, etc, etc, etc..... someone else had to be carrying us on some of this. Had too.

Just to be clear and i should have wrote, the Stena farm-in will negate the full Bizzell CLN. I think it was possible to make out what i meant but i wasn't explicit.

JBT, My theory/hope on the way things will pan out are:

* A smaller unconditional amount of the Bizzell CLN will be subscribed to on or before 15th Oct. I don't think obligates anyone to go for the full amount if this option is taken, someone correct me if wrong.
* Stena will take up one of their funding options and I think the 10% of the asset is the more favourable as they can fulfil their element of this at cost price i.e. < $10m. This puts them in the commanding seat for a good chunk of work on P#1 success.

Should the above play out then i think we will come in close to 4bn shares in issue. We voted for an additional 1.8bn and that would have taken us to around ~3.7bn anyway. This might mean we acquired our CERP puppy for around 300m - 400m which in hindsight maybe softens the blow on that deal. I am still to be convinced on its merits, the jury is out.

Todays placing could roughly see an issuance of somewhere between 240m - 400m, i'm going to guess it'll be in the late 300's. Although its never nice to have this size of pool in the background i will give the board credit in knowing what they are doing, that this is part of a coordinated approach and they will release news on a farm-in which will see this pool absorbed by PI's rapidly.

If they continue on with the Bizzell CLN in full without any mitigation, deliver only a single well campaign and fail to deliver on any type of farm-in then they will have failed spectacularly and heads will need to roll and i will be the first to call for blood.

Here's to hoping they're not a pack of idiots and they are men of oil.

MMM, the decline in SP that will commence after the placing has nothing to with any candlesticks or bearish sentiment and everything to do with the placing and its price. And as a few of us have stated for a while (look at my previous posts) it will not be a surprise to see a placing.

Any placing that occurs that will replace all or most of the Bizzell CLN is a bonus given the coupon rate of the CLN and compound interest from it.

I have always stated if we come in around the 4bn shares in issue at the time of spud this will be what was expected and we are on track for that.

Only good or bad news will move this share price. Anyone who relies upon charts for BPC is quite frankly an absolute certified idiot and will lose money hand over fist for as long as he has a hole in his asre.

I can remember a number of presentations and roadshows from BPC where they have mentioned the good economics of the project down to 'x' dollars per barrel but in all honesty I don't think anyone ever latches onto that as if it's something of great significance. Yes, we generally want know if the times we find ourselves in make the project prohibitive but that's about all we ever want to hear and the Company never expand on this further and everyone is content. So why put this out now?

For me as a PI this piece of information is largely irrelevant as I've previously been told we're ok to low oil prices and I have great confidence in the funding packages available, therefore, for me we are going drilling and that's all that really matters. I'm not really bothered because the dollars per barrel quoted will not be the same by the time they get this out of the ground, which will be a number of years away at best.

The Company for some reason have therefore decided to draw a line in the sand now and give a valuation of how we stand today and communicate this officially via RNS - Why? It can't be for the benefit of the PI as the most pressing thing for us is trying to understand ultimate dilution. For me it's therefore aimed at the institutional investor(s) or a farm-in partner so i'm expecting imminent news on that front.

I never understand why people write 'Tilburn' instead of 'Tiburn'. It happens a lot, by many.

dubed, it's a bit different to that though isn't it. The Eco page has an embedded Presentation about a specific activity/activities, this is how you would expect it to be. I can't see the same picture used in something explaining who they are. They will need to ask permission to use pictures and agree the context in which they will be used, these things are very important image controls to companies.

The Eco activities in their presentation will come and go and the relevance to their partners and the drillship used will come and go. It is subtly different to embed other companies major equipment into your base website - it is different.

For an investment on their behalf of $10m a success case on drilling would secure them a 16 well programme worth in the region of $500m. Also it will not cost Stena the $10m they would charge BPC, making the risk/reward sum much more favourable to Stena.

A 16 well programme would roughly equate to a 480 day on station duration and the impact of the regional hurricane season would likely double the end to end duration of a 16 well campaign. Something like this would tie-up a drillship for a comfortable 2 years.

Good business for Stena on a success case in this environment with very little monetary exposure to them, derisked further given they have secured some good contracts in recent times.

Surely it's a shoo in for them, isn't it?

Does anyone else find it slightly unusual that on BPC's home page next to 'Who We Are' there's a picture of a Stena drillship (Stena Carron)?

Companies often have affiliations with many service companies and subcontractors and that type of temporary contractual relationship is displayed and conveyed in a specific way. However, it feels there's a closer relationship between companies when one allows the other to use pictures of the others major equipment when stating Who We Are?

Interesting.

Although relationships between companies exist it's not common for it to be displayed so prominently, front and centre e.g. if one of them were to receive very bad publicity it rubs off on the other, unless that is the companies bonds are incredibly close and inseparable in some ways.

I agree with a lot of comments today about the direction of this only going north in the foreseeable. Also, It’s not been my game but this share has been good to those traders who have managed to hit it right over the years but as Bryn often points out we rarely, if ever, have a day of very significant volume. Should we get some great news in the run up to spudding then Im sure this share will be more fluid than the flock of sparrows released the morning after an Indian phall and volume will be many multiples of that recently seen - BPC has been around that long it’s on everyone’s watch list.

Still quite a bit of headroom to go on this share I feel.

Example.

RNS Thursday 11th June @ 11:47am - RECOMMENDED ALL-SHARE MERGER

Bombshells like this can drop any time now and very well might. No one saw that coming in a million years.

Rickie, Given that there is no restriction on news flow and it could happen at any time and like you acknowledge you expect something within the next 2 - 3 weeks, do you feel comfortable being out of this when hugely significant news could drop any time?

As i've put in other posts, if someone believes with the right news this share can be significantly North of these levels you got to have some stones to be out of this at this period. Historically, BPC have like a 7am Thursday RNS but given a farm-in contract is likely to be signed within working hours and it would be so significant the market should be informed asap, news could land at any time on any day, now.

Risky game being out of this now if you believe it has significant head room in my opinion.

I realise the Bizzell CLN did not fall into this reporting period, however, the Company have often taken opportunities to make positive forward looking statements with respect to P#1 readiness and given the timing of this report alongside the huge amount of focus now on BPC, it wouldn't have hurt to spell this out again for everyone to critique the plan. With Stena's deep portfolio of businesses, their appetite for value creating non core business opportunities (double money in 5yrs) and continuity of work for their core business by becoming the preferred supplier, a farm-in from them feels very possible.

And in the time we wait for news on a farm-in the SP continues to creep up, reducing any impact of the very favorable Bahamas Family loan Facility which will likely convert at no worse than a - 25% premium to the prevailing price. Good business for both parties I feel; significant guaranteed funds at a fair price.

Watch This Space.

It's difficult to not notice the complete omission of the Bizzell CLN in todays interim report. The terms of the Bizzell CLN were quite unfavorable ('expensive' in their words) to BPC with the low strike price and the the coupon rate being what is was, all in it would have seen c. 580m new shares issued. You always felt they would try and not use this and it was a last resort. With it not even getting a mention in todays report it feels like that has now been kicked into touch and they definitely won't be using it. This makes the 15th October, the first decision day on the Bizzell CLN, even more interesting.

A2R, yes this is pretty well known about. I think it's known as China's 'Belt & Road' policy - look it up.

It's a reason why I thought we may have been courted by a Chinese player during the Exclusivity agreement in 2018.

The theme of recent times on this BB has been about credibility and the light was turned on both BB posters and the Company in this respect. Although todays RNS isn't new news to some, it goes further to cementing the credibility of the Company in delivering on what they have said and gives further credence to those that have commented in support of the Company.

Todays RNS is one more nail in the coffin of the doubters who will surely soon run out of oxygen in their protestations. Sooner or later these people will either need to start to believe the Company or they will be forever locked out of this very exciting, potentially country changing, project.

Todays RNS is not only a confidence boost to the Company in demonstrating their ability to deliver but confirmation in the quality of the drill ship selected, a ship amongst the very best of it's type in the world, states this is a very serious project and not something enacted to get it over the line.

Speculation now should fall on not whether the Company can fund this, the chances of this are diminishing by the day, but what possibilities now exist with regards to another well given the early spud date and who might be interested in farming in to this project given the best in class capabilities of the project, against a potential world scale supergiant oil field find. This will surely now attract the very biggest players and not they know this is happening, it will force them to get off the pot.

Good luck everyone, this has been one long hard journey.

Morning all. I have lots of green on my post feed. Can one of the better and more reliable posters tell me if one of them green boxes is ross apologising to me for saying funding had to come first rig nomination. Does he have the humbleness, humility and more importantly THE STONES to admit he was wrong? If so I’ll take his filter off.

ross, you'll end up on filter with Mad Harry if you keep twisting my words. I don't say it "would likely be a placing" as you state, I say an equity placement is possible and wouldn't surprise. My personal opinion is that a farm-out is most likely at the moment, not a big raise via equity.

At this stage my most likely scenario is a small unconditional subscription to the CLN on 15th October, a farm-out with Stena involvement, and the Facility not used unless a success case on drilling.