Member Info for jimtheknow

Zag, unless an NoC comes in with an outrageous offer close to, or North of, £2bn then a buy our isn't going happen and there isn't strong enough compelling evidence pre-drill for this to happen so the drill is required and then if the drill comes in i think given the size of the reserve and who would be interested then a buy-out becomes too difficult/expensive. Hence why an Exxon will play the percentages game now and have a piece of the pie, or a deal for exclusive access to it, before results are known.

For all those who worry about the current world turmoil, oil demand and price then i feel the need to reiterate that these conditions are largely irrelevant to BPC. Some people on here state on a find they could be producing within a few years, this is absolute rubbish and i don't mean to be disparaging when saying that. Exxon, with their Liza field have so far set the gold standard for time from find to production, this being 5yrs. Also, as Simon points out in the recent interview, appraisal drilling can't commence until late 2021,Q1 2022 at the earliest, so these inherent issues hamper field development.

I would also urge anyone invested here to read Roberta Quants (BPC's Environmental Advisor) most recent written article you can access via BPC's website, where she states that even on a discovery producing wells will not be operational for many many years after any find. That's an employee of the company going into writing about this!

This is all about the find and the farm-out with production in c. 5 +yrs. The price of oil now and the covid pandemic is not of huge concern. It's how you see the world in 5+ years.

Zag, fair discussion point and if this were an option what do you think the cost to the major would be? Remember, there's 4 billion shares in issue, how much do you think the large retail investor base would hold out for? 5p/share (£200m) 7.5p/share (£300m), 10p/share (£400m)? Starting to be very expensive for a look to see what's down a hole when they can take a look for c. £50m.

Star, he says his phone will be ringing off the hook “from one of those majors”. A subtle difference but very important.

Why does Simon say Stena have been working with Exxon all through COVID? He could have named half a dozen companies Stena have continued to work with through COVID. That was a slip of the tongue for me, deliberate or unintentional only Simon knows. Was that around the time in the interview Eytan felt the need to chip in and put the attention in himself and away from Simon, where Eytan was pulling his Adam’s apple out? I’d need to watch it again.

Malcy has known for a long time who the ‘exclusive’ major was, he said over a year ago that it was ‘...a very big fish indeed...’ I can’t help but feel Malcy was playing a little ‘dumb’ around this.

Then all the history with the West Saturn puzzle and Exxon’s unwavering commitment to the future of oil, interest in deep sea oil and new frontiers.

If there’s to be a farm-in, which I suspect there is, it’s Exxon for me. A dead cert I’d attest.

I hope Sean Connery wasn’t our Nassau based Family Office investor.

Isn’t 4D chess, just chess?

Exxon certainly qualifies a "Watch This Space!" statement.

Exxon would attract people like Dr Gogna away from very secure high profile national government work. Why would you leave a rock solid, secure national government job at a time in your career you are likely to receive the most focus and attention? To go to a junior explorer who's future is in the balance?

Exxon would be attracted by the prospect of "the most exciting wildcat well that's being drilled in the oil sector for a very long time..." [Malcy]

Unlike other competitors Exxon are firmly continuing in the deep sea oil plays.

Simon says his phone will "be ringing off the hook with one of those various majors on the phone to us". This to me says the relationship and connection is already made with one and not the opposite, that being lots of people will be trying to get in on it.

Simon says.... his phone has been "ringing off the hook... we're thinking about how to appraise a structure that's 80km long..." The relationship between BPC and farmee is there for me, they're already working collaboratively. Working on this plan and getting a head start on this work is a very important thing with the Bahamas play as time to appraise is restricted to finite drilling windows, they can't rock up as and do work as when they feel like it.

The relationship with the farm-in partner is well cemented i think.

Exxon for me.

Simon says... Stena have been working with Exxon during Covid.

Exxon looked like they were ones who were going to give BPC the use of the Seadrill West Saturn back in Q1 2020.

Stena have worked with lots of companies during Covid.

The tiniest of tiny little wry smiles started to appear on Simons face, which he suppressed, when talking about farm-ins. Probably needed a fart, again.

"....dead cert"

Dry

anyone in? circle of death here.

Zag, I guess if we knew the answer to that it would spoil Eytans game.

It's still a space.

Oh boy, we’re watching alright.

Irene, my approx £200m valuation comes from tangible things such as money spent to date, granted some of that money has not been ‘value for money’ and the other things that don’t always make sense e.g people will gamble on share if they don’t think it has too far to fall and they will take a punt for potential upside, sometimes without properly understanding the limits placed on that upside. I think this share would trade happily in the late 4’s to 5 region if people weren’t worried they could get another billion shares thrown in the mixer from left field.

I’m also a believer that the world is still hooked on oil and it’s derivatives for the next 30+ years and given these structures are so large and a single drill is likely to prove or disprove vast quantities that will take decades to deplete, rather than sniffing around a license for years trying to milk pockets, I think this one drill could unlock the potential for a 30 year cash cow for a major, possibly securing even some of the bigger companies futures. This will interest a lot.

As for farm-in. It’s the only logical thing for me. I don’t give any credence to the thinking that if a major was interested it’d have been done by now. I think the board have continually refused what they think were low offers, I 100% believe that. I think their tactic to hold out has merit, however, I don’t think they have executed that tactic very well and things could have been done sooner, only they know why it hasn’t. I think the accusations of liking a slurp of gravy aren’t completely baseless.

P.S. keep up the good work of keeping the idiots in check and holding to account. It’s some of the few joys of reading this board.

It really feels, given the progress that’s been made to date on P#1 and the time left for all this to play out, that there will be no nice middle ground for the share price e.g. a 6 or 7p.

We are currently languishing where we are because there is still a perceived threat of greater dilution and the retail market just don’t trust the board enough anymore. The board have strung this out so long people want to see tangible results before putting in (more of) their hard earned and given there isn’t that much more for them to deliver other than the well itself or a farm-in.

It’s crazy isn’t it thinking back to the little run we went on when the Stena contract was announced and we now find ourselves almost 100% below these levels.

With all the things we have boxed off and the size of the prize we’re going after we should be sat around a £200m mcap.

The ONLY logical reason for the path we are on is for the company to be raising free cash now against a prospective 100% owned supergiant oil field and then we’ll get the news late doors of a farm-out. BPC will then have plenty of money to pursue other ventures e.g sell this same story for the Uruguay license, make self sustaining pocket money from CERP assets and take a back seat to the farm in partner on Bahamas licenses.

We are always given the caveats on any raise that should a farm-in be concluded then they will have more money than that required for P#1. To me, with no other logical explanation existing to see how the BoD are creating ‘shareholder value’ the late farm in path is the only thing that makes sense.

If they drill this with just enough funds for P#1 and that comes back a duster then every other single element of this business collapses as their ability to raise funds evaporates.

Farm In coming in December I think.

Ag right, this is a bit of old news from the other day then, I thought someone had found something new.

Some of the remuneration could have been taken as cash under the deferred scheme so that would be him putting his hand in his pocket if that were the case.

They had the option for cash or shares under the salary deferment agreements when it was time for BPC to settle up.

I haven’t followed up on these Director buys yet, can anyone inform if they were an ‘ordinary’ purchase in the placing or were they the exercising of Options?

My memory has gone a bit foggy now and maybe I’m getting confused with another company but is it right everyone loses their entitlements to Options on a buy out?

It’s never crossed my mind at all ever we may be subject to a buy out, certainly not before drilling a well, but with BPC being the strange and unpredictable thing it is you never know.

In4, in brief....

If people go back to some of my very first posts about the merger they will see that i thought they will raise all the money they need now i.e. before drill P#1 for CERP and then (probably) sign the farm-in for exactly the reasons you say - if P#1 is a duster the ability to raise money is long gone!!!

I think some people read and interpret things in how they think and ignore what is actually said. I wrote (with spelling corrected):

"We are still none the wiser as to what this CERP ******s is all about."

And we aren't, we have not yet seen the fruits of this master stroke. That's not be putting the CERP assets down, i'm watching this space keenly to be educated in it's merits. That's not an unfair observation for someone who has many millions of shares in BPC. The jury is still out, it may now be part of BPC life but the logic behind it is yet to be demonstrated.