Member Info for jimtheknow

There is an absolutely solid case for a farm-in before. It's true we don't need one but don't confuse that with one not happening. If P#1 strikes good oil the T&C's for a major shift significantly making it prohibitively expensive for some and very expensive for others.

The company have worked this position for a long time, it's pretty much exactly where they want to be. In Simon Potters own words, the things they have done to date have enabled them "...to hold onto more of the asset into the appraisal phase than we would have been able to." BPC are looking for a split that is something close to being equal shares with a major, as opposed to retaining a minority stake. This is what this long game has all been about.

In the companies words they have fought hard to stay afloat and not go bust and lose the licenses, they have held out against the majors. The drill is happening now so the major has to make a move and my bet is they already have. After the postponement of the early 2020 drill Simon stated any farm-out discussion would now conclude at the end of the year inline with all parties new timelines.

Having followed this for a very very long time now in a huge amount of detail i'm more confident than I've ever been we will here news on a farm-out within 6 weeks.

CPR will have absolutely nothing to do with any farm-in. The CPR for Cerpes is all about keeping the lights on, no major or independent has even the slightest bit of interest in what the CPR will state next week - they're only interested in P#1.

I'm not sure why people are talking about the CPR so much, it's hardly going to be a needle mover. The only way it will move the SP is if they are able to get some type of funding/investment on the back of it and it puts the CLN to bed.

Rumours could be circulating of a farm-in.

Irene,

Ah, so by stating that then you are a believer that the share price will go up and therefore you think there's money to be made here, and if you think there's money to be made here then the next question is - So how much are you in for here?

Irene,

Still waiting!

Linton, Exactly my point this is O&G, we expect good standards of the well remunerated employees of this is a fledging company. We want people to communicate and articulate our vision and story well, until we become a 'proper' O&G company and start generating our own funds to become self sufficient we have to rely on people buying into the story to continue as a going concern. Where are the buyers going to come from so we see accretion in the share price if our company doesn't exude confidence and competence? We shouldn't accept less.

We can't have people sounding like... Dad had a hat. Biff had a hat. Chip had a hat. Floppy ate the hat. I put my finger in poo. My finger smells of poo. My sweeties taste of poo.

It was good to start hearing from a new voice within the company but dear god, they should have made sure he was comfortably past reading the Roger Red Hat and Billy Blue Hat books if he wasn’t up to ad lib’ing about the company yet.

That's right PI.

I think unfortunately when people see BPC doing the promotion rounds they initially, rightly or wrongly, smell a placing rat. That's the unfortunate perception this BoD have created.

Gender reassignment surgery?

Irene,

The adjudicator for market cap bet shall be Google Finance BPC Mkt Cap.

On your bbls/d bet... i did want to take this on but that would mean having to spend more time than i ever want to understanding some of the issues around the CERP hound, which quite frankly I haven't got a great passion for. My views on Cerpes the dog have changed little since they day the merger was announced and i am still none the wiser to why it benefits us PI's, i understand how it benefits the BoD. At best and with hope, Cerpes may in time get to a point that stops the jingle of the charity basket once per year for funds to keep the lights on and worst it will be the death stone around our necks. We'd be sat in the 5p's area now if it weren't for Cerpes, looking for a further boost when the IceMAX sails. We are aligned on Cerpes.

As for Farm-In... I'm quite confident this will happen in some form but i hesitate to complicate the original, simple bet. For clarification, does any form of farm-in count e.g. Stena taking some/all of their 10%?

Irene,

No, i'm not saying that. The key to understanding this challenge is in the title of the thread i.e. £225m market cap.

Basing this challenge around a specific share price is not an entirely fair challenge when taking on the bet this far out as we may be subject to a further few shares by then, who knows? Therefore, to keep things simple we need to base it on market cap.

Are we on or have your pre-op (redundant) balls shrivelled up into your stomach?

Irene,

You appear to have conveniently missed my challenge to you for a little flutter.

I think BPC will be above £225m market cap at the close of business on the day of spud, you can have below. Loser makes a £225 donation to charity.

Are we on?

I had a lot of green so quickly flipped the filter off.

Ross, even you must understand that even if the price of WTI went negative, as it did not so long back, this well will still be drilled.

All these external factors that people are getting in a right flap around in the markets simply do not apply to BPC and the P#1 drill. The drill is happening.

I think you’re getting confused with whether WTI will weigh on the BPC share price, which I agree it will in some ways, but it’s not stopping the drill.

Garry, i appreciate you put your opinion as 'Strong Buy' but like many others you clearly don't understand what you're investing in. The price of oil now has nothing to do with BPC's journey now, they are fully funded for the drill, the have all contractors lined up, they have permission from the Bahamas government.

Barring an outbreak of Covid to personnel directly involved in drilling operations, which can be completely mitigated against prior to drilling and will be, the sh111t storm that is going on in the UK and parts of the world right now can be totally decoupled from BPC's objective to drill a well close to mainland Cuba. And given we don't have to raise funds for this drill by going to capital markets, etc. the money and commodity markets (FTSE, oil, etc) can do what the hell they like and it makes not one iota of difference.

BPC are drilling this well, it is happening and it is one of the biggest prospects to be drilled in the oil industry in many years, a potential supergiant oil field only really seen in the Middle East and this is on the door step of the USA. If it comes in this field will generate billions of dollars for governments and all companies who partake for decades. This is not a poxy well on the UKCS.

Lockdowns, travel restrictions, factories, retail, pubs, hospitality, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024.... all of these things have nothing to do with the drill - BPC are now decoupled from all of this. If there is a better place to put money to work in these troubled times, with such a short duration to see results, i am yet to see it.

I've bought more this morning. Only added a small percentage in respect of my greater holding but i'm confident with where BPC are at and the timeline they are on. Within 3 weeks the IceMAX will have set sail, in approximately 6 weeks she will be on station - this is no time to be dithering. The comment earlier about trying to get in 0.3 or 0.4p better is truly baffling.

Joe Public may not be able to travel internationally but i'm aware of a number big projects based out of the UK which have exemptions for their workers. Like i say, the retail investor often has an insular mindset, your comment exemplifies my statement. The wheels are falling off the retail, hospitality, entertainment, travel and aviation sectors but engineering and particularly the energy sectors are seeing little change.

I've got a feeling the general UK market sentiment and often insular mindset of the retail investor will mean quite a few get caught napping on BPC. UK Covid and the spot price of WTI have virtually no relevance to BPC, it is fully funded and all players for the drill are fully engaged, aligned and a plan with a schedule is being enacted.

For those concerned that Covid will stop this drill then you only need to look at what restrictions were enforced on key workers of major project during the first wave, this was virtually none. Even when Joe Public had severe restrictions imposed on them during the first wave, many workers were exempt of restrictions on international travel and business continued. This will be no different now on this second 'soft' lockdown.

Irene,

How about we have a little flutter? I reckon BPC will be above £225m market cap at the close of trading on the day of spudding, you can have below.

Loser makes a £225 donation to a charitable cause.

Are we on?

Irene, I’m one who enjoys your posts so I’m not looking to get into tit for tat here but as you will, or should know is that although BPC is valued at c. £100m at the moment as per market cap, if an all cash offer came in tomorrow it would not go for £100m, there would be a premium to pay on top of that.

How much of a premium is up for debate but it wouldn’t go for today’s listed value.