Member Info for jimtheknow

Petro, always watching but would rather stay out of a lot of the chaos. I have to admit i don't check as much as i used to as i'm fully weighed in, with no intention to sell and i'm here for the results.

The big question for everyone is now they know how the CoS is calculated does that change their investment strategy? 35% doesn't shout out to people this is a nailed on investment case and those who are risk averse may have given it a wide berth, and this most certainly isn't a 'dead cert'. But BPC's technical analysis is saying they are extremely confident the conditions for oil have almost certainly occurred, this doesn't seem like it's in question.

It's all about how mother earth has caressed our little ball of oil over the past few million years.

Probably why BPC were raising contingency funds to perform tests and complete analysis.

BPC's published geological CoS calculated for this drill is a function of the likelihood of a number attributes having occurred or being present, 4 attributes have been used in BPC's published calculation. This results in a simple probability calculation. BPC attributes in in this calculation with their assumed probability are as follows:

Oil reservoir present = 90% chance
Quality of source rock = 70%
Migration pathways to charge trap = 75%
Chance the trap is intact = 75%

CoS = 0.9 x 0.7 x 0.75 x 0.75 = 0.354 = 35%

As you can see each of these individual assumptions, from BPC's technical analysis, is quite high but as any mathematician will tell you it's the compound nature of the calculation that diminishes the calculation.

So, for those who are wondering whether there is oil there then BPC are saying this has an extremely high probability of being so, 90% chance is there assumption, a 'dead cert' as they would say.

It's all about the probability of these 4 attributes occurring together which determines whether commercial oil is present.

As i have said for years on this board, believe in the geology.

Yes

Announced in a Thursday morning RNS?

Some will no doubt say I’m clucking mad but I still think a farm out is possible within the next 2 weeks.

The options and finance agreements BPC have available to them require decisions and directions to be taken a number of days post spud, it will not be a surprise to see these not exercised or drawn upon.

So many people of late getting their knickers in a knot and crying like babies because they can’t comprehend not everyone thinks the same and like them and that is worrying then.

Face it, there are a huge amount of passionate people out there who don’t agree with exploitation of hydrocarbon resources, this can include people from all walks of life, whether they be fishermen or members of the US Congress. This is exactly why we have Government imposed Regulations, Rule of Law and independent Judiciary. As long as all Regulations & Rules are followed then objectors need to protest against a change of Regulations & Law and not the compliant activity. If mob rule win out the world would be chaos.

Everyone take a deep breath, calm down and allow due process to take place and have faith BPC have complied as the Bahamian Attorney General has stated.

And go have a beer.

JtK

Unfortunately the internet isn't capable of filtering on it's own some of the users and traffic that pass along it and it's a free-for-all for every narcissistic soul regardless of their aptitude.

I’ve said this before over the years and nothing has ever changed. This share has never been one for the faint-hearted, it was inevitable there would be curve ball after curve ball, if you thought any different you’re as naive as the day is long.

The only reason most of us have stuck around as long as we have has not been because of the proactiveness or charm of the board, if it were that we’d have ran a long time ago, it’s because we believe in the geology and it’s very rare potential.

All those crying into their pillow need to man up and grow a pair.

Todays RNS has cemented BPC's ability to fund the drilling of this well with not only a bold message on the certainty of funding but a desire from the backers to increase their interest further, this can only strengthen BPC's hands in final negotiations with Stena or a farm-in partner and allows them to stare any opponent down and not blink.

Next week will be an enormous week in the history of BPC.

Watch This Space

I don't think the Bahamas has too great an international standing anyway. Here's another thought though....

How about it was our Bahamas Family Office investor that has had his nose put out by being told they no longer wish to use him for the 'Facility' and they are behind the QC's action?

Laughable

Where's Zak when you need him? The BPC chart is beginning to show some pretty interesting shapes if you draw straight lines from the unicorns nose, past the tip of it's horn and finish at the end of the inverted rainbow, it indicates we'll be about 12p in 6 weeks.

Tiburn,

The other option not mentioned is that it is ready and it's a steady away report but that they intended on doing a placing around the same time as it and obviously that is not really an option in the current news climate.

One side of me thinks that the QC's threat of legal action has been timed for such this purpose, it may carry little weight and credibility as a legal challenge but its is potentially very disruptive to BPC's overall plans.

Ah, it would appear we have a village of idiots.

Evidence of one of the biggest idiots to walk the face of the planet.

However, having now read it, it would appear there isn't anything in this Act which forms a solid basis for the OIOF action. If changing the ship is all they have to go on then they are clutching at straws and very thin straws at that. Certainly nothing that indicates or mandates a public consultation.

B0ll0cks....

Ignore my posts, i think i have just found it in one of the last directories ive checked.....

http://laws.bahamas.gov.bs/cms/images/LEGISLATION/PRINCIPAL/2019/2019-0040/EnvironmentalPlanningandProtectionAct2019_1.pdf

As stated in Section I (pg 4) of the EPPA bill, the Act only comes into force once it has passed parliament and notification has been made the Bahamian 'Gazette'. I have therefore searched all records of the (normal) Bahamian Gazette from 2019 and 2020 and can find no notice of such an act, see the following links and please check yourself:

2019:
http://laws.bahamas.gov.bs/cms/images/LEGISLATION/SUBORDINATE/2019/
2020:
http://laws.bahamas.gov.bs/cms/images/LEGISLATION/SUBORDINATE/2020/

I therefore don't believe the Act OIOF basing their legal action on is valid at this moment in time.

It sounds a good story though.

Would love someone else to check all this and do more research.

JtK

I am by no means a lawyer and even if i were it would be unlikely i would be one who is familiar with the ins & outs of Bahamian law, so i state the following as a layman and most certainly not in the capacity for which financial investments should be made.

In the first instance we should hope BPC and the government of the Bahamas have followed all that is required of them, it is their duty to do so and we should expect nothing less and we have no reason to expect nothing less has happened.

From the information put in the public domain it would appear the 'Our Islands, Our Future' legal proceedings are based around BPC's and/or the Bahamas government falling foul of the 'Bahamas Environmental Planning and Protection Act (EPPA)' which at face value and without further knowledge would appear the OIOF action has some type of basis for something.

After doing a little bit of research, via the open and freely available Bahamian government website, it would appear this Bahamas Environmental Planning and Protection Act (EPPA) is still in its DRAFT form and no more than a Bill of parliament, see the following links:

Bills, Laws, Acts summary page;
https://bahamas.gov.bs/wps/portal/public/ATTG%20Bills%2C%20Laws%20and%20Acts/DMA%20Bills%2C%20Laws%20and%20Acts/!ut/p/b1/vVbZbqtIFPyWfIBDd7M_Yjaz7-sLMsbGZnXANjZff-3M1SjJaJKR5ib0E1IVdar6lASWYjGWduvLoVyfDn23bh7vKZXhsmU4PMEYDEWwQIG-qQiijcs4fQckdwD4l4cDf_GBbHDcnS-TgAJKYOucTa-QpSEswuIiQVehVyZJDLNjMOIt3DijiwZ3v1b5aRzJWsoHReJzzcpyxj4XRqbKHvn4-mK4iKq-jWG26wl9JtarW4Ovi2yrSkpIFvHN89OL64emG5DndtQs3OZyfnU04ZITyLRYZ17rdE2yqfx8WcXUPEVNX5EVhG3CakScjpRyUV3Tk7jpekLhoubCG5-bxIvLJBxj8r_9f2LwM_-Q_IJPgP_HvwP-0_39zbeQ_wDwkNICEmgE8RU_wtJPR3w4eAV8tiJfLckHwMchqa8ABGau-naLJXcY_UbID8EdBjjXgw5gTIj5WAyIzKtuR2WuZ7eiXcMXVMsfJAPMATJ8PzKDGnmFBUdxr8Eq1H2RmI15A8x5czVOul2EbnBfrik7jPuPgu_n8gDx3YIyaTH3KGnf5kgEZAv-tCD-o5HKtgW-3eG7pSGcP3-HKpYe8vZ52rTP4JlhKUjSDMEyFCAIhsbCKkGsMCqTqJi7_TaUt9V2ljw3OTRl4u23wamW1UZl_W3lN7TTNEnk31J4vo2bKBe3YiFKgnXONXYg8r5088tU-qKWkFx_VRqdTTlnuh1KxOPTQU-4I7hcs8u-ney0P3S902wrk9oQ0mIXk8cd7oe4zOQZPthntQropmsNj0z6xRZtVmHdkbx_ipIhQTavoQ5JYAOtjCtOnjOAp8_LoUH6H8HOrm2KV82bTQNU0ewJ8SPY28h6cNSdCQTQMMX-HqwGTbEGo-n_DnbJvVzp5Is26j8sqK2onxbEv11QQ_hdUMd1k-Eh0sBPC6I_LviujQTAKYJhaApBhBgCvNaRol__XpT0UceRqto5YmNF6aS9s0z9Xknayzpgow7SMnlVO5vOmVWWEBFshW4se3We_ZJFJt7rrJ7L6ppzMscBXpozvHPsWYUKk8UUMygfS3UYFjHNsAFPrVfeiyWJAtyRYd2ACOQpLApBPooQ1n4TghqFst4y3fLlOp6XWSnVpraZXqRRLxVw8lmhTmwnSY8BniyZbg6H8-qKqJCjRyhU3uWQlXzAFsAsn56wYxtcNE3TKVd0GXP35pDDm1P-AjFOyTs!/dl4/d5/L2dBISEvZ0FBIS9nQSEh/
The actual Bill can be found using the following link:
https://bahamas.gov.bs/wps/wcm/connect/85f0b67d-c793-44d6-8f8b-4f9c2816adc7/Environmental+Planning+and+Protection+Bill%2C2019.pdf?MOD=AJPERES