LW, Agree but they have been at this rig contract for some considerable time now and they have publicly stated they have the rig, albeit not in an RNS yet. I am absolutely sure there are no threat or worries with obtaining the rig, i'm 100% confident it is in the bag, i just think it is convenient for the company to do this at a leisurely pace. The volatility and uncertainty in the SP is of no concern to them as they are 'in the know'.
Because BPC are dragging their heels with it to allow the wealthy Bahamian family-office investor to get his hands on his 48m shares so he can flip them straight into the last pivotal piece of news on Tuesday (3rd). No good to the investor if we all fill our boots prior to this - I scratch your back, you scratch mine. That's what i think.
Get 'em while you can.
Mystery, if fully subscribed and with all interest applied I think the CLN will see approximately another 590m shares added to our total and not only will this put the breaks on our market cap it is a problem for us holders when trying to compete when offloading our shares. Wouldn’t it be better to take a hit now of between 250m & 300m shares and get this out the way and let them get flipped into a raft of positive news flow. The overhang would be gone in no time and we’d fly past recent highs in my opinion and if they found commercial oil, well.....
The CLN isn’t the end of the world if it’s needed, but it’s a baseline that BPC should try and better. We are going drilling, it’s all about getting the best bang for your buck for us patient shareholders.
You can’t help but feel someone in the farm in process will give in a little bit in the 11th hour, but who will that be?
Arma, I think BPC are doing everything they can to avoid the CLN and that will either mean a placing or farm-in on sensible terms. I think a placing is a relatively easy one for them to execute and they’ll be hanging out for the farm-in till the last possible minute. They may even give the illusion of a placing to give a potential farm-in partner that last nudge.
A placing RNS will not come as a surprise and I’d welcome it.
dubed, any raise would obviously be at a discount to the current price, something around a ~25% discount on a previous days closing price would be good and fair i feel and such a (relatively) small volume would get eaten up in no time. A deal around those proportions would significantly reduce long term dilution from the Convertible Loan Note (CLN) and would free up the sp to reach higher highs as BPC entered drilling.
dubed, As has been discussed on this board previously you are technically correct to say BPC do not have the CLN money as there are conditions to be met, however, these conditions are for things like having a drilling rig, having an EA permit, etc. These items are essential to going drilling so if they don't have these they are not going drilling. I would say the question needs to be rephrased slightly, it's not 'do BPC have the CLN money?' It's 'are BPC going drilling?' If people believe the latter then i think it is not unreasonable to assume the CLN is a given.
We must remember also that it is clear BPC's view is the CLN is a last resort, Eytan said as much last night at the Mayfair presentation. He said they would always try and protect the shareholders from greater dilution if that were possible i.e. he said if they can do anything to prevent or mitigate a 590m share issue in relation to the CLN then they will explore those options. He said if a major were to give them a cheque for these funds they can forget about the CLN. With this in mind it is highly unlikely we will see the CLN taken up until the absolute latest possible date and this may even mean going beyond the 9th March date, in my opinion.
The Company are trying to look after shareholder interests. This may not fit entirely with the short term interests of Day Traders but the LTH's are being looked after, in my opinion.
I think people may need to understand what Malcy is saying, he's not knocking this funding agreement, he's being complementary of the ingenuity. It speaks volumes for what serious money investors think of the project, that being they are happy to pump large sums of their own money in as a form of half-way house 'debt' on very good terms to BPC. People must remember you can really only take on 'debt' (of this size in, this context) if you are considered a genuine business and going concern by serious money lenders, it demonstrates great belief and certainty in the project.
Reading between the lines it also goes to show what must have been told to these lenders in order for them to part with very large sums of money i.e. you're money is 'safe' because we have these farm-in options available to fall back on, which we are still trying to better and your money we can help achieve this.
With respect to farm-in, i don't think i have ever read something so certain that farm-in options are available. Be in no doubt, farm-in options are now available, it is there in black & white regulatory controlled text direct from the Company. It is within BPC's gift if they "choose" to do so now.
The Company is now at a new baseline that can only be bettered in my view.
Good luck everyone, things are very close now.
That’s a very good piece of financing from the Company there, obviously Simon has made very good connections and has the belief and support in country which is worth as much as the money.
Being a bit geeky about these things I liked the bit about MPD drilling, something which I’ve wrote a few posts on recently. It’s the best and right way to drill and although it incurs a higher cost to drilling it’s a faster and safer way to drill so is likely to roughly even itself out over the course of drill but they can’t say that now for reasons I went into previously.
Something which has been ticking over in my mind.
It's not that BPC will not drill, i believe they will, it's more around the perceived delays and i think they are because of Seadrill trying to best manage the use of their fleet. I know the West Saturn is looking the favourite to be the rig and it fits with a lot of the rhetoric from the Company e.g. inspections at anchor. I just wonder given that a couple of their other rigs are only on short term contracts which are due to finish very soon and could potentially fit with BPC, i wonder if they were looking to give one of these a quick turnaround and send it to BPC rather than take a freshly certified one as Seadrill might want to use this to tender for a long contract with someone else e.g. Exxon, Guyana?
I believe Seadrill will honour the initial agreement, it was more everyone has been giving them time and the best chance to do what is best for them. If it hasn't already though, i suspect the axe is about to fall on this wiggle time and they will just have to supply what they have.
I believe Seadrill only have 5 MPD certified rigs at the moment and BPC are looking to undertake a MPD drilling campaign so that limits options in the fleet, unless another is converted, which someone like Haliburton could do for Seadrill as they sell MPD equipment. I know 4 of the 5 Seadrill rigs that are MPD capable; Capricorn, Capella, Tellus & Saturn, i don't know which one is the 5th? If it's not the Sevan Brasil maybe they were considering converting this to MPD as it's at anchor in Aruba, maybe this is what has lengthened time frames? This would be a win-win for Seadrill and BPC.
With respect to drilling duration's and RoP. The 'Road Map to Drilling' specifically talks about 'Managed Pressure Drilling' and there have been other references to how the RoP will be determined by geological conditions. To try and simplify this in the best way possible to those who maybe don't understand about drilling and duration's.
You can't just set the drill bit off at a constant speed and keep ploughing all the way to TD. As the drill bit hits different rock strata a different pressure is required by the fluid that is pumped down that cleans and lubricates the drill bit and controls well pressure.
Sometimes, when the drill bit reaches a strata of rock that is heavily fractured (cracked) the fluid leaks away into the surrounding rock and fluid pressure is lost, this can be dangerous as it may lead to a 'kick' or blow-out. Therefore, the drill bit must 'wait' at this height until enough fluid has leaked away into the rock to flood and fill the cracks and voids until fluid pressure returns. How bad the fractures and voids are before drilling no one can truly tell so how long they have to 'wait' at each rock strata is unknown until drilling is underway. This is why there is a best and worst case duration provided for drilling, it'll likely be somewhere in the middle.
I have probably over simplified there a bit and may not be exact but you get the gist. Feel free to correct.
Good luck everyone.
Farm-In will only come once BPC secure drilling in their own right, a Major has no incentive to conclude earlier as they will always wait for every opportunity for BPC to trip up.
BPC will secure drilling in their own right, albeit with a few more bumps on the road to it.
There is likely to be some type of fund raise/placing to supplement or mitigate the CLN. Even if this is at or slightly below the 2.5p level of the CLN, any fund raise now removes greater long term dilution from interest on the CLN.
Any fund raise of any type is a positive as it secures drilling.
I'm surprised we are above 3p now based on the 'Road Map' RNS, it contained nothing new. I always expected the catalysts for SP movement to come post closing of MF, where we are now.
Drilling has always been planned for H1 2020, with that always having been late Q1/early Q2. The April drill date is absolutely on track as per BPC rhetoric and reading some of the talk of dates slipping is simply not true and makes frustrating reading.
The EA will come within the next 3 weeks and could be on any day, as with any other pivotal news.
Drilling is happening.
It is illogical to assume anything else given everything that has happened and been published to get to this point.
Good luck everyone, no more than 3 weeks (and probably less) to wait to know most of the answers now.
My opinion on imposter Jim has been voiced before and I’ll not vent off again expect to say this chaps depth of knowledge would appear shallow. To say the MF was a ‘flop’ shows an incredible misunderstanding of the macro situation.
I don’t disagree a placement of sorts may happen, I can think of reasons why it makes sense, however, that is not the current Plan A.
Heid, brilliant post and I think that propels you up there as one of my joint favourite posters. There are some brilliant posters on this board and it’s a tough call as to who I enjoy reading most but I think Linton has been the most consistent top quality poster for me over time.
I also liked Matsman1’s post and forgot to acknowledge it earlier when commending yours, which I should have done.