Member Info for jimtheknow

I remember it very clearly as well. But remember, we never had an unconditional rig contract signed then. We will never know what happened with the Seadrill rig, we can only speculate.

Harry, as a lot have pointed out I think you probably need to calm down a bit. Funding has got nothing to do with not naming a rig and MST would agree that. BPC have more than enough cash in the bank to pay the £2m fir when Stena are ready and able to name the rig, BPC also have enough cash in the bank to operate the rig for 30 days should they wish, that isn’t long enough to complete the required scope but it’s enough to get us to know what rig will be coming.

Unfortunately you’re clutching at thin straws in the BPC bashing game, there are other things you could pick on but relating the requirement for full known funding against knowing the drill ship is not one. The drill ship info will come out when Stena are fully ready with everything on their side of the fence, they have until 1st November for that, we’re barely into the Stena news window.

The Shell Vito project would be a prime candidate for the Stena IceMax after it leaves BPC.

Shell have a big presence in the Bahamas and have often been rumored as a good fit for BPC.

Arm, I'd lay off the Greta videos then for about another 4 months, certainly util the drill results are out. If you do and they were right about how much oil was down there you too could join the ranks of the raging hypocrites and pontificate about how we need to save the world whilst benefiting (directly or indirectly) from all that which oil has to offer in this modern world.

PS I do agree with the great unwashed in that we do need to be more responsible with the resources we have, however, i do wonder what exactly it is we are trying to preserve as all life on this planet is ultimately futile, which generation will it be that is allowed to say 'f**k it, we're gone anyway, lets fire all them old car things up and have one last hurrah!"? Surely it must be the extraordinarily long term goal to get off this lump of rock, mustn't it?

Harry, i understand how writing on this BB can be cathartic and can also help with the near seemingly endless waiting we all have to do, but i feel if you halved your posts and took the dogs for two laps of the pond rather than one, BPC may not get to you so much.

Few people can fault some of your points, the BoD still have a lot to prove but we all know all will be forgiven if they do come up with the goods. We are very close now to knowing whether we have all been sucked into a 10yr Ponzi scheme or whether this is a real oil exploration company, we'll know the answer to this in less than 2 months. Relax a bit.

Harry, who’s the Aussie CEO we’ve taken on? Have I missed something?

Having some last minute thoughts and hesitations after 10yrs Arm?

That all sounds fantastic and plausible PoC but the reality is often the Sevan Sisters rarely end up in an aggressive war with each other and plenty of back scratching occurs. They are as thick as thieves.

Starchildish, that would make you dead then, like your craic.

A 'squad' is not looking to attack anyone. People want a BB where proper reasoned things are discussed and where people appear to be very misinformed those that have direct oil & gas experience try to correct them in the error of their ways. If you don't have that then and are unwilling to listen and learn then you are always going to appear less credible and therefore what's the point in writing anything? Just writing a lot doesn't make something any more true, well researched or credible, it'll just appear to those who do know as rambling nonsense and people are fed up of it. It's been a long time.

Take the statement "...on what we potentially have." We potentially have nothing, it's why we need to put the drill bit in the ground. Even if we find something we are not going to be a 10 billion company, something twice the size of Apache Corporation who have extensive resources and infrastructure all over the world? If people think this and have bought on that basis then it's only fair they are educated in this mistake and can exit before they realise their dreams were never going to come true.

This is a high risk, high reward share. A good oil strike with a good farm-in partner(s) could see this get into the 20 something pence area. If you're looking for much more than this then this share is not for you. See my previous posts on oil company market caps to understand the potential of BPC.

Personally, I feel a farm-in is very likely as it is the only rational explanation for the BPC BoD's rhetoric and actions, if they don't pull that off then this, over the time it has taken, has been a bit of a shambles of a performance from them.

I’ll find said dog and spank it till it coughs up said plan.

In answer to someone’s question why won’t / can’t BPC do a Rock Hopper and get to £5+ per share. What the disingenuous deceitful rampers will never tell you, or they choose themselves to be ignorant about is a companies share price is all about a basic sum for market cap and this is a function of number of shares in issue. BPC are approaching 3.5 billion shares with more suspected, £1/share makes BPC about as big as some of the big independent oil companies overnight. These independents have billions of barrels of proven reserves and pump hundreds of thousands of barrels per day with infrastructure that already exists. BPC will not become a multi billion company even if it finds its best estimate of oil.

Rockhopper had a fraction of BPC’s shares in issue when it rocketed.

I hold a significant sum here and I have no interest or wish in BPC failing or doing bad, but the vomit inducing disingenuousness from some needs to stop and be kept in check.

How about.... The dog ate their drill plan?

I must admit I don’t think I’ve heard that one from them yet.

....would probably be sat at around 5+p now if it hadn’t been for the CERP merger, how does that feel for people?

This board still have a lot to prove to their loyal long term shareholders that this was the right and good deal. We continue to wait patiently, again.

OK Ray, understood.

Starchildish, If you keep writing nonsensical rubbish people are going to challenge you and call you out. With the exception of your boiler room chums, most on here recognise you for the fraud you are and detest your posting. Could you also PLEASE GO AWAY.

Yes, Stena have a share equity option. I can’t remember the exact wording used but it says something like, on the same terms as what would be a normal financial placing. What that translates to in reality I’m not sure. Would it be at 2.5p, similar to the Bizzell CLN or at a discounted rate to the prevailing sp at the time??? I think the only thing that’s sure is it won’t be at less than 2.5p.

Stena taking a 10% share in the asset would be very exciting and some sort of deal to make them the preferred drilling partner on further wells to tempt them holds credence, it would be a bit of a coup for a drilling company to secure such work in these difficult times for their industry. If such a deal were concocted I feel the question for Stena is less about any financial exposure on P#1 drill and more a question of whether they think commercial oil is there, if they take the plunge and get it right it provides them with great security.

If BPC and Stena we’re partnered further by an oily then a formidable force is created with only a fairly modest financial exposure for each, it’s difficult to see why this won’t happen given the potential prize up for grabs; 50% oily, 40% BPC, 10% Stena on a two well campaign.

As of 1st September BPC entered a window where news could drop on a number of significant things at anytime, with a hard stop on some of the most significant news being 1st November. However, the first line in the sand that has to be crossed is 15th October as this date relates to some optionality and direction with the Bizzel CLN, you would therefore think the company may release news on items that relate to conditions precedent for the CLN before then if they intend on using it.

The company state in the 26th May Rig Contract RNS they had approximately US$12m in cash with a funding ‘gap’ of between US$12 - $16m to close for drilling. With Stena offered a chance to negate $10m of this, and the interaction with others pieces of the puzzle, it feels unlikely the Stena decision will wait the full allowed duration to 1st Nov. When Stena notify BPC need to stump up US$2m.

Given the number 3rd party players in the puzzle this could easily become a bit of a leaky ship so BPC won’t be able to sit on market sensitive information for long. Hopefully this means we’re not far away at all from a dense news flow period.

It’s going to be a very interesting 6 or 7 weeks.

I probably should add. You could have added another 30% onto those predictions if it hadn’t been for the CERP dog.

CERP assets will only ever start to reflect in the share price if oil starts to get above $70/bbl.

A duster on P#1 = 1.1p i say.

It is not really possible to ascribe a value to a supergiant oil find as there are so many factors in play, one of the most simplest concepts to comprehend is the extraction rate v’s resource size. For a supergiant field it is likely to take many decades to deplete, during which time oil could become worthless, or, one of the scarcest and most valuable finite resources on the planet. It is therefore likely a value will be attributed for only what can be realistically extracted within (roughly) a 10yr to 15yr forward looking window, crystal balls are very unreliable past this in today’s world. Adding up all the extra billions of barrels and factoring by a $/barrel is futile exercise at this point in time.

To further roughly develop this model you would need to consider what it costs to develop a field in terms of bopd capabilities. Do you stick with BPC’s frugal 25k/bopd from a hired in FPSO at minimal cost or do you look at Exxon’s Liza model? Subtract this outlay from any field value. This is about a basic a model as you can comprehend and will still not be right because of the myriad of factors in play.

What would I be happy with for BPC.

25p per share is something only imaginable in my wildest of dreams and would see me so happy I’ll be doing naked cartwheels down the street, fortunately for my neighbours this will not happen.

15p - 20p is potentially possible if every single star in the galaxy aligns.

10p - 15p with a commercial find and a JV partner in board the top end of this may come true.

7.5p - 10p it May monetarily fleet towards the top end of this region on drill hysteria.

5p - 7.5p. You’ve got to be happy taking some profits in this region at time of spud.

2p - 5p. Is where we will drift up to in run up to December.

We can look back on this day in January and see how my predictions pan out.

The above assumes a relatively steady and predictable oil price from where levels are now, a significant change will void the above for me.