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I also don’t believe the placing has been forward sold. I’ve seen that happen in the past and what happens is despite huge buying volume the share price doesn’t move up, it stays pretty stable and then once the volume drops the share price drops too.

There hasn’t been much volume in recent months, and certainly share price has never felt like buys are not having any affect - quite the opposite in fact, it usually shoots up pretty easily on buying pressure.

I also think the share price dropping immediately to the placing price (bid) suggests the shares haven’t been forward sold. In other words PEEL wasn’t going to let private investors offload their shares at 40p to them before they’ve made their own money. So they immediately drop bid to 25p. It will rise soon IMO.

I very much doubt that Budd will have known that the market makers would immediately move the share price down to the placing price when the placing news was released.

I’ve not seen that happen much in the 10 years I’ve been doing this. Usually the market drives right wherever it’s going over time. Often it’ll be quite stable way above the placing price and then gradually drift down over the days/weeks after.

So with that in mind I actually think the BOD probably this was a good thing for shareholders. And of course the funds from the OO will speed up development and FDA etc. They said the shares they are planning to buy will come from the placing or open offer… which does make me wonder if they will end up buying even more (if the OO is not fully taken up by private investors.)

Positive news and anticipation should easily take this back above 50p in the next 2-6 weeks. News on the biosafety and perhaps a PHE deal, distribution partners, CE markings x2, initial AIHL sales and details about European launch should all be coming in October.

*the new 40p will be 34p in terms of value.

This is what I'm thinking at the moment in terms of share price, considering that not much has changed on the news front except the placing itself and sentiment...

Before the placing there were 63m shares in issue and a fairly solid 40p share price giving a £25m mcap.

After the placing there will be 87m shares in issue, so with the share price at 25p this gives a £21.75m mcap + extra £5.5 cash. So based on that the shareprice should reasonably be 31p (giving mcap of 21.75m + 5.5m = £27.25m)

After both placing and open offer there will be 105m shares in issue, which at the current 25p shareprice gives a mcap of £26m + an extra £10m cash. So you can reasonably say our mcap then should be 36m which equates to a 34p shareprice.

So assuming the fundraise goes through successfully then my very crude calculations mean the new 40p will be 36p in terms of value. Then from there, with 105m shares in issue a shareprice of 60p will give genedrive a mcap of £63m (which it previously would have had at £1 when 63m shares were in issue). Of course this doesn't take into consideration psychology, but gives an idea where the shareprice might go on positive AIHL or POC news. 50p is a nice round number and a good target for starters... which would give an mcap of about £50m (which we would have reached at 80p before the dilution and did so fairly recently).

Considering the launch of both products should be in the next 2-6 weeks I'm feeling pretty confident we'll get back up to 50p at least, particularly if there are orders.

Even if the share price was 50p there wouldn’t be any point in taking up the open offer, except to help fund the company. I’ve only worked this out roughly in my head but if we’re able to buy 2 for every 7 we own, and if the total new shares issued will be 18m then the dilution to our existing 7 shares will cancel out any gains from the 2 @ 25p …it would only be worthwhile I think if the share price gets up much higher - like way over 50p.

My thinking is they are cheeky buggers. Plus they ought to be able to make some good revenue over the next 12months so don’t actually need it. Without the open offer funds they might be encouraged to try a bit harder to sell their tests. So I’ve decided I’m not taking the offer up… unless in the days before the deadline the share price is over 50.

What are you seeing? I might be able to help.

I believe Beckman must have sold some, but if they have closed even just one on-going order with a customer they'll need to order more from Genedrive which they haven't yet. DB said not having FDA is a hurdle they've not managed to overcome in the USA and in other territorries it's just been dificult to get companies to move from their existing supplier. Perhaps if there becomes a shortage of tests through the Autums/Winter then they'll have more success.

I wasn't going to unless the shareprice rises way above this price before the deadline, like back up to 40p+ however I've just realised that because the value of my holding has been obliterated the amount I'm entitled to is not a huge amount anyway so I probably will take it up, though I will buy a lot more on the open market. I haven't decided yet.

I'm not very keen on them spending loads of money on an improved version of the POC test before they've even launched and proved the first version. If mk1 is successful they won't need to raise more money for mk2. I'd rather they used the money to promote mk1 whilst the demand for it is there.

That’s not how it works at all. Such a large dilution wouldn’t be necessary if the placing price was higher, ie they could raise the same amount of money at a higher price without needing to issue so many shares.

Open offer won’t be taken up IMO unless the share price is much higher than it is now by the deadline. Absolutely shocked at the discount given for the placing - I had feeling there would probably be a placing to support the launch but not at that price. I have tons of questions, but right now I’m trying to figure out the likelihood of something triggering a rise before open offer deadline. I’m also wondering if the board new the market makers would open at the placing price last Thursday, I doubt it …as otherwise why would they think anyone would take up the open offer if they can buy on the open market without diluting their existing holdings. I’ve been away the past week, had even worse news last Thursday than the placing… but it’s been on my mind… and cost me a fortune in leveraged positions! I remember an open offer with (I think) Sound Energy 4 or 5 years ago that wasn’t taken up because share price fell below the offered price. Like most I’m now well down on my main holdings.

Lots of other thoughts, but will write when home. Like how could BC not sell anything? They were marketing in Europe too where FDA wasn’t needed, yet have they failed there too? We still don’t actually have any figures about how many they’ve sold. Only what genedrive have sold up to end of June.

HCV looks like it’s going to lose WHO… can’t they alter the test to avoid that happening? What they said about the POC test doesn’t sound that good either anymore, they’ve made the target market sound tiny. Just getting some initial thoughts off my chest, there’s obviously upside to be had over time (IMO) but we’ll annoyed. I started suspecting something wasn’t right with that Rt-PCR test when their office mate was using an alternative. Can’t understand why they haven’t reduced the cost, some profit is better than none - seems greed has been one of the problems.

At first it mentions the high throughput test and then the COV19-ID kit - which is the POC test.

Considering Genedrive used to be Epistem and they work from the same office address, it seems a bit weird that they are not using the Genedrive test on their Roche 480 platforms, instead they're using the PrimerDesign genesig RT-PCR assay. Something doesn't seem right there imo.

A bit of background, my understanding is Epistem changed their name to Genedrive to focus on the Genedrive device and assays, they then created Epistem 2 which bought several assets from Genedrive (old Epistem) to form a separate company focusing on services. Genedrive were then able to focus on developing tests, and the new Epistem focused on providing testing services. They have the same office address, so presumably work in the same building? Why on earth would they not use the Genedrive covid test I wonder?

It was HCV getting WHO RNS about 5pm that took it to £3 the next morning. Before I think the placing was announced later that day.

Also worth bearing in mind we haven’t seen the effect yet that WHO will have on HCV sales as it was dead through Covid. Sales only recently picked up, it was always expected that WHO would boost the sales. Hopefully a nice surprise coming soon re sales.

It's reasonable for the market to be told whether we are currently funded for both AIHL and POC launches, or if aditional funds are required. Anyway if they do raise then hopefully it's before any good news. CE marking news should coincide exactly with product launch (going from previous products) so I doubt a placing to support launch would come after that.

In the meantime I don't think there will be much else that will move the shareprice much, so asuming it hovers around 40-50, I'm thinking if they raise then it will likely be at that price with no discount.

Total speculation though! For all we know they might have a Beckman order before then, or even FDA coming in at last.

Actually there have been other companies I've held that have said in an RNS that they are planning to raise funds for a certain thing coming up, it was probably after market speculation. It's not always at a discount to the shareprice though and going by the 2018 assay placing it was the price from the previous days close, which was virtuall the same as the day of the placing.

I had the response about 'not being able answer questions like that' from Anna, though I believe for that question she was just passing on the answer Genedrive had provided her.

A few months ago somebody said they had asked Wallbrook whether there was a placing coming and they apparentally said that the company was not currently planning a plcaing or words to those effect. I asked them last week and they said that a listed company is not allowed to answer questions like that as it is price sensitive. Surely if the company was planning one then the fact that it is price sensitive information means the market should be told about it.

Both the covid POC test and AIHL should do really well in the UK and everywhere, there isn't any real competition for either but plenty of demand! I just wish they would share abit more detail about what the heck is going on, surely they have distributors ready now for end of Sept/beginning October POC launch. The biosafety review results will be coming in too, is CE marking dependent on that? Will CE marking take a few weeks to come after that? Pretty sure the 'yes' tick on the European Commission was just refering to the device itself and not the assay (this is what Wallbrook said to me).

I'm not totally sure if there will be a placing or not. I'm confident they're not about to run out of money however they did do a placing at the end of 2018 to support the launch of one of their assays so it's certainly very possible. The good news there though is that it wasn't at a discount to the shreprice, it was the same price as the shareprice. The placing last year I believe was largely to do with covering their back regarding possible Covid related supply issues. There's been some grants and the tax credits too, so they're deffinitely not one of those companies that's constantly doing placings to keep things going.

Also though I can't see anything that categorically shows that those 2000+ kits were all sent to Beckman, the FDA page shows the 3 types of kit but nothing to say that it was the whole lot as far as I can see. If somebody can show otherwise please do.

https://fda.report/Company/Genedrive-Diagnostics-L-T-D
https://www.genedrive.com/assays/96-sars-cov2-documentation.php

I hope so Dave! If so, I'm surprised those details would not have been shared by the company. It sounded more like BC paid $0.4m for the whole lot, I don't remember it seeming like an initial payment. It's strange because the $0.4m figure was not even mentioned until the results I think, the initial RNS had people speculating that the first kit shipment was free lol.

My conservative guess is that the kits had limited shelf life, and the worry was they weren't selling, so they did a deal with BC to take the lot to try to sell to their existing customers and to use for demoing and evaluation whilst they conduct their sales cycles to private labs. And that a low price was paid because limited shelf life and no FDA. The goal being that the sales cycles will close some large deals and on going revenue (and more shipments from genedrive), and the hope being that FDA approval would come at some point too.

I'd be hugely surprised if they haven't or are not in the process of closing some good deals. At this point thouggh I'm more interested in AIHL and Covid POC hopefully both launching in the next 3-6 weeks!