Ben Richardson, CEO at SulNOx, confident they can cost-effectively decarbonise commercial shipping. Watch the video here.
https://www.nature.com/articles/nbt1199supp1_33.pdf?origin=ppub
Based on his background, he seems credible to me
1. Whether or not the FCA wants to encourage this type of business, guarantor loan providers do exist in other forms (with the FCA regulating a large number of them). Amigo performs a useful function.
2. In terms of the competitive environment, yes there are various others in the guarantor market - but based on a few Companies House searches, none of them seem to have anywhere near Amigo's scale (even after it's been out of the market for a while).
3. Whilst I appreciate that the directors might have an incentive to keep on earning their salaries, they have various fiduciary duties which would make it a bad idea to continue running a business if that prejudices creditors. Given that they must have lawyers all over the place at the moment, I can't imagine that they would not be fully aware of the personal consequences of continuing the business only to line their own pockets. The business continues, so presumably it can be inferred that they see a reasonable chance of success with the SOA and future business prospects for the company.
4. If, based on the close communications they must have had with the FCA as they went through the most recent process, the directors didn't feel that the FCA would sign off the SOA, then surely they would have just let the business fail already? The fact that they have formally submitted the plans to the ICC and FCA must surely imply there is an agreement in principle?
Thanks. I have researched and Iām not blind to the risks. I feel itās not in the FCAās interest to let the business go down, so Iām willing to take a punt. Just hoping that they make a decision soon as the suspense is killing me. Iām feeling positiveā¦ if there was no chance of reaching agreement with the FCA then wouldnāt Amigo have gone into administration some time ago eg when the lenders had the chance to call a default?
Thanks. So the next bit of meaningful news will come from the FCA, which presumably will take days/weeks rather than months. Seems like any changes in share price between now and then are purely down to speculation. Fingers crossed for a positive outcome - if amount of compensation to be paid is not too high and the company can restart its lending, thereās got to be a lot of money to be made. If itās a bad outcome then I may lose my entire investment, but the potential upside seems to be far greater.
Is there likely to be messaging from the FCA before the court hearing? I had understood that the court would have waved it through last time around if the FCA was on board
How long did it take between submission of SOA and any news coming out of FCA/courts/etc last time around?
Kevin Cox stated in the broker appointment RNS: "We are very much looking forward to working closely with the Cenkos growth companies team to help deliver and further develop the strategy we have been building over the last year. After a period of consolidation and stability, this is a natural evolution in our growth plans."
Does the chat team have visibility over how Cenkos is likely to deliver value here? Their warrants are exercisable at 22p so they are already heavily in the money, but I canāt see that this is attributable to Cenkos (yet) - more down to people reading in between the lines from the Investor Q&As. I assume their job will be to ramp up interest when a deal is announced?
Thanks Josh - fingers crossed itās a good job tomorrow then!
For my learning - is technical support level based on how trading algorithms would view the market moves?
Yeah I really am hopeful, I have topped up a few times as I wish some good news must come at some pointā¦ I havenāt been invested long but itās now one of my biggest holdings. If Suzy doesnāt pull something concrete out of her hat tomorrow though, what are your thoughts? I want to stay invested but worry that this will drift along with cash burn before they ask for more Ā£Ā£Ā£ from investors.
Am I right in thinking that the outcomes here are fairly binary - i.e. (i) no SOA agreed, we lose all of our money; or (ii) SOA agreed and lending can continue, we make a lot of money? Or is there a (iii) SOA agreed but FCA does not allow lending to continue, so it's a wind-down, and there may be money made/lost?
Based on the IPO valuation, and comparing that to the amount of compensation claims... assuming any post-SOA trading under option (ii) is not massively curtailed by new borrower checks, then don't we still have a valuation of >Ā£1bn? What am I missing here?
Any idea what we can reasonably expect from the Q&A session, other than (as mentioned previously) a bit of marketing and injection of hype? I'm fairly new to the investing game but have been trying to understand a bit about RNS etc, and from what I had understood the RNS info has to be released as soon as a major business impact is foreseen. So, presumably if there was any big news then we would already know about it?
Very keen on this share, and I think it has some way to go. CNN business is showing that 15 analysts are offering 12 month forecasts at (I think in USD) a median estimate of 4.85 and a high of 6.77. I can't see how anything as high as 6.77 could be supported, based on historical prices... but clearly someone with (hopefully) much more knowledge than me has managed to get there. Any idea how?
Short term lurker here (started my investment journey with lockdown savings), Cineworld is my (joint) largest holding (other significant investments are Rolls Royce, Amigo Holdings and Valirx) and I have high hopes for Cineworld (seems like a pretty good risk-reward ratio compared to some of my other Covid-hit investments - RR likely lower risk and reward; Amigo/Val higher risk and not sure about reward).
Lots of chat on here around forecast share price etc, but what do people actually think the Enterprise Value is here? i.e. if we strip out the debt, the potential bad news around the Cineplex case, etc, then what is the business actually worth? I don't know what EBITDA multiples this sort of business should actually trade at, so i'm just wondering what really is best case here? AMC has an obscene valuation which I can't believe is rooted in reality and will presumably come crashing down at some point... but I assume Cineworld is still inherently undervalued at the moment. Recent highs of 120p+ are surely achievable, but where really can the underlying business support in terms of valuation.
Thoughts?