Member Info for jimbogains

Ignoring the share price (as it's pretty meaningless given expected rights issue etc) and focussing on market cap... what is everyone's thoughts on the market cap of the business if we get through the various hurdles through to pre-RI?

Business was valued at north of £1bn a few years back, albeit based on irresponsible lending practices which obviously gave rise to the current predicament. In any event, after (say) £300m of redress payments and factoring in risk currently, we end up today with a market cap of £25m.

I can't fully understand the gap... and what, if we clear the risk hurdles (creditor vote, court hearing, any FCA fines etc) the market cap would trend towards. Clearly a different business model, presumably with lower margins (although if more thoroughly vetted borrowers, perhaps our loan write-offs will be lower and consequently, margins not massively lower than before). Loan book also needs to be built back up in time and additional funding required to do this.

But given FCA has indicated a willingness to let the business run again... why did we not trend up massively once that was confirmed? I just can't understand how, given where we are now, the market cap is sticking at £25m.

Thanks Novice - was in Vegas for stag and wedding, then Bournemouth for another stag the weekend just gone... slightly broken, wonder if Suzy has any hangover/broken mind cures up her sleeve. A drug solution would be good, although if we can get up to OB's £2.36 share price I think that would perk me up.

Hi all

Been on holiday for a few weeks and not entirely up to date - topped up a little bit today anyway as what I do hear sounds positive. Can anyone confirm how the business intends to pay for the lab they're looking to develop? Obviously this will be transformational for the business... just wanted to check if it's been confirmed whether this will be by way of rights issue or something else?

Excited for the 201 deal finally dropping so we can all start wildly speculating about one of the other drugs!

I’m obviously disappointed that this is delayed again. Share price fall not too painful, though. With all the new announcements around new drugs Valirx will be looking and lab etc, it’s clear that Suzy believes this will happen. Just really hope she is right

Monday isn’t usually my favourite day but hopefully Suzy will brighten it up tomorrow.

Any talk of this deal failing is pure speculation so I don’t know why people are letting the derampers get them worked up. We have until the end of the month, hold tight until you hear any actual news.

Neither side is entirely blameless in all this.

Interesting to read the Russian news to try to get a sense of balance. You don’t need to be a Russian speaker to do this - go to Google Translate and tell it to translate one of the popular Russian news sources (tass.ru or ria.ru) if you want to read directly what the Russian population are seeing.

Feels like the Russian authorities are struggling to justify their actions and the various associated negative consequences to their people. I just can’t see how Putin is going to survive this with a frankly unwinnable war (long term) and the massive squeeze on living standards on the Russian people.

Hopefully common sense will prevail, the war will end and sanctions will lift. I feel that an investment in Polymetal is a gamble in favour of peace so for various reason I hope the share price skyrockets!

Thanks Porky. Fingers crossed on 201 - obviously I want it to be a stellar drug for various reasons. I have lost money on various different investments in the last month and wondering whether I should reallocate away from Val, looks like some great value opportunities out there but I’ll kick myself if I reduce my stake in Val just before big (positive) news!

Even if VAL201 deal gets over the line, I believe that there’s no certainty of any funds coming in beyond the initial £2m (or whatever the number was) plus service fees, is this correct?

Obviously getting this deal across the line will bring confidence in the company’s deal making ability, whatever the economics. I’m really starting to lose confidence that 201 is a good drug, though… if the prospects were great then someone would have snapped it up by now surely

If Suzy were starting to question the ability for TRx to get the deal done, I don’t think she would be able to say so until it becomes worthy of an RNS as it would influence the markets. In any event, saying “I don’t think our potential partner can deliver” would destroy that relationship so she’s not going to do so until she absolutely has to. As such, whilst I believe she is an honest broker, I don’t think we can rely on that as evidence something is not wrong with the TRx opportunity.

It really shouldn’t be that hard for TRx to get the funding, it’s just not that significant a commitment they would need. Which makes me question how the DD is going… given Val’s continuing involvement I can only assume the product isn’t an easy sell, for whatever reason.

I’m getting quite nervous as I’m heavily invested here. Nothing to do but wait and hope though, in my view… selling out at this juncture would not seem sensible given the decent strategy that is being put forward.

Key dates for last SoA were as follows:

Convening meeting - 30 March 2021
FCA letter - 10 May 2021
Creditor meeting - 12 May 2021
Sanctioning hearing result - 25 May 2021

For SoA2, the dates are about a year later (convening meeting 8 March 2022, sanctioning hearing 23/24 May 2022).

Based on my reading, I understand the convening meeting mainly to be process-driven and unlikely to present any real issues. So, the next useful piece of SoA-related news will presumably (assuming this process works through the same as last time) be if the FCA raises any objections around the time of the creditor meeting, i.e. presumably early-mid May 2022.

As such, we're a good three months away from any particularly exciting SoA updates (unless there's any other key news leaked in the meantime).

Andy - my concern relates the TheoremRx, not (directly) VAL. Wonder if this could be why fundraising taking so long

The rights will be sold at market rate but the subscription will have to be at the rights issue subscription price. Stop misleading everyone Rosie, ffs

I suspect Rosienas doesn't know how this works or otherwise is just trying to intentionally put people off with misleading statements.

All that people really need to worry about here is whether they think there is a future, profitable business in there (on the basis that SOA and Rights Issue pass and FCA allows the business to lend). If there is sufficient demand for shares in this business in the rights issue, then it should not matter whether you can afford to subscribe or not - you can just sell your rights. The risk you are buying in to now is the risk of this getting across the line, the current market cap should factor in all of the uncertainties.

An investment in Amigo is very risky and any investors should go in with their eyes wide open that they may lose all their money - but conversely, there may be a decent amount of gains to be made if everything passes.

Slightly concerning:

https://amp.ft.com/content/c90d17c6-6196-4c8a-88c2-e2cef9a692f2

Dozens of biotech companies are running low on cash and face an uphill struggle to raise fresh funds after “tourist” investors who snapped up their shares during the pandemic abandoned the sector.

Noted, rhubarb. Thanks for responding

@rhubarb

You have a somewhat God-like influence over sentiment here.

Do you think getting VAL201 over the line will be a "big bang" moment for share price? Or is this just a nice step-up, with market cap increasing as the strategy is proven out?

Do you have a target market cap in mind (i) post-VAL 201 signing; and (ii) in the mid-term (say 5 years out)?

That's definitely what I should do Woodsy (or at least their UK equivalents, given the US market is so overvalued)! But that's what my nice boring pension is for, chugging away nicely in the background and hopefully building into a substantial nest-egg for when I retire in 30 years!

But I do enjoy the risky side of investing in small-cap shares... it's turning into a bit of a hobby... just a shame I am not doing so well at it!! Fingers crossed Val will make up for all the frogs.

Starting to become a little jaded about my share investments, having lost an awful amount of money on Cineworld and Amigo in recent months... Valirx continues to be my most significant investment, so I really do hope that this one works out well! Otherwise I might just go and buy some premium bonds and have a nice, boring investment future.

Keeping the faith. Just about.

We shareholders took a highly speculative bet on the company and it may not pay off. If you can’t accept that taking big risks sometimes means that you lose, you really shouldn’t be investing in AIM at all. If (big if) all proceeds nicely through to the business restarting, there could still be plenty of money to be made here. But the people who are feeling so sorry for themselves on here and talking all kinds of nonsense really are no better informed, more intelligent or more worthy than the redress creditors they seem to think they are so much better than. Get a grip.

Yes I must admit to being very confused by events recently. An RNS was released with little by way of new information and then the CFO quits. Why? Clearly something has happened behind the scenes, I wonder if this is the product of some behind the scenes tussle with the FCA or other powerful vested interest.

While recent events have been viewed by markets as overwhelmingly negative, if the upshot is that getting rid of the old CFO paces the way for FCA agreement to the continuation of the business then I’ll take that as good news.