Member Info for JG68

He doesn't care , he already shrugged hus shoulders when questioned about that at a previous presentation, think he said " I can control the markets and share price " shrugging his shoulders.

Savage

Havnt you read what all the obe offs were that caused the loss last year, nearly all non recurring, if you're shorting from here it's far more risky than going long

Gocpi

I wasn't suggesting you're ramping or anything, just curious given the username.

I tend to agree, I've amassed a large holding over the last 3 years, and this is one stock that I'm going to try and resist selling any when I'm finally break even, which will be the hardest part tbh.

I bought into the JL turnaround king story, so to give this another couple years under the new team is a no brainer.

I'm surprised the market has this so low still, and really believe and hope that soon we'll all be saying we can't believe how cheap it was back then.

My guess is that it would be far more expensive to bring these services in house, which is why the likes of serco was used by local authorities under Osbornes austerity measures, and still are some 15 years later.

Can't see it myself, they're going to need to cut spending if anything.

Gocpi

Are you a cpi insider out of curiosity?

Wealthtransfer

How do you see the hybrid playing out?

According to Moodys in May , they assumed that would be refinanced or resolved well ahead of the first call option being November 25, so realistically they should be on it quite soon.

And dies the Fitch assumption of a refinance at 11% seem too pessimistic considering rates should be heading the other way certainly by next year ?

I agree imo

Mavswf

As you know I'm down around the same as you and echo all of your posts, and up to now I have been annoyed regularly but fairly confident that given time I will recoup these losses and be able to sleep better at night.

But now for the first time holding this I'm getting that same feeling I had with cineworld , scared I'm going to get wiped out, and I did sell at a 40k loss and recouped approx 60k, and lucky I did at the time.

I'm not suggesting this will go under, but I'm seriously worried that this current board are not capable of sorting out the Hybrid time bomb effectively for shareholders, either resulting in a significant dilution ( in other words being even more than 70k down for a another significant period of time and being prisoner to this rubbish for years) to oay off the hybrid by Feb 26 or refinancing on even more unfavourable terms, 11% being suggested.

Personally I'm going to give it until probably the October trading update to ensure guidance is met at HY, and reiterated at q3, before deciding what to do here.

I have a similar situation with cpi ( only 20k down) and have held through a torrid turnaround since 20 again with an absolutely clueless inept CEO / CFO combination who have finally been removed, with new blood at the top of management both buying over 600k shares each, so I'm prepared to ride it through because finally I have confidence in the management team.

Biggest mistake here was chasing losses and amassing a ridiculous number of shares over time, and as things stand not 1 single purchase I have made here is in profit. Says it all.

The way I see it they have 18 months to resolve the hybrid cluster, more likely 12 months to ensure plenty of time.

That is such poor management , what a mess this guy has overseen since his appointment in 20.

Anyone know why the dog5h1t uk markets are all falling today, other than being listed here, and choosing to follow what the US does at 1.30 which is 3000 miles away.

It's so f-----g tedious investing in this country, every step forward there are always 2 back.

Not really referring to cpi specifically

Make that treble the dividend amount now.

Something very off about this 14% in a few days

This is now down double the dividend on next to no volume.

What they fail to mention is forecast for earnings this year. A bit backward looking imo

Zebs

I think the reason they gave for delaying the NA sale until end of quarter 3 is to wait until the 24/25 school bids contracts are finalised which will be on better margins than currently ( the ones up for renewal that is), and from memory I think they stated with a view to complete the sale by year end.

But this is MCG of course who managed to reinstate dividends last year only to withdraw shortly after, and who managed to completely miscalculate costs in NA specifically, and downgrade their earnings guidance weeks after stating them at HY. This before even the German contract provision fiasco.

So I do not believe a word that comes from Garat.

He's an incompetent clown that's unbelievably managed to hold his position, as most on here would agree with.

Me too I voted them both out but somehow I have a feeling it's cosmens votes that keep him in.

Where do you get 450 from?

From the fy update:

In North America School Bus, there was a c.15 % driver shortage at the beginning of School Year 22/23 (i.e. September 2022). By December of 2023, we had reduced this to c.2%. This was achieved by overhauling recruitment processes, with a record net number of 990 drivers hired in the year (compared to 884 in FY 22 and a loss of 569 in FY 21). Although we did incur higher than expected recruitment costs in the second half of 2023 this represented necessary investment. As the pressure has eased, those costs are now significantly lower.

Trisor

The way these companies offset their tax liabilities is way beyond my comprehension.

But looking at things very simplistically, the number one priority has to be turning free cash outflows to positive fcf, which in turn will free up disposable income for dividends. This I would think is after any capital expenditure. He stated in the agm TU that cost savings are on track so that with a reduction in one offs like large pension deficit contributions, cost of the hack, costs with redundancies etc etc should all translate to FCF next year, even without inflation linked increases to existing contracts. You never know he might surprise us with an improved timescale fir improvement ie before fy25, but then again, this is crapita, you never know what's coming.

A bit disappointed that this isn't trying to break 16 by now, maybe tomorrow/ Friday if ecb cut rates tomorrow.

We know they're going to give details of the coat saving efficiencies on track for FY24 and the "Good progress with technology hyperscale partners as we co-develop delivery solutions which are more efficient and provide better customer service Future strategic priorities to be outlined at Capital Markets Event on 13 June 2024"

Why Tom afternoon it's Thursday?

See what you mean but surely value will eventually out, just seems odd with such strong earnings forecast for this year that the market is happy to drop it on small algo volume.

This is forecast to generate over 700 mill net profit in FY25.