Member Info for JG68

Sorry should have elaborated on my comment

We know cashflow will be negative this year by 70-90 million, costs associated with the cost savings.

I wouldn't expect any explosions until next year possibly q1 TU, but you never know with this unpredictable d0g5h1t ftse.

You're probably right Polish, this is a combination of Moodys, Berenberg, shorts.

I'd be significantly worried if shorts were increasing between 5-10%, or if the bonds were reacting somewhat.

So their base case is refinancing the Hybrid.

One things for sure, no more profit warnings or missed guidance, they must know that would really impact the credit rating.

Only concern is the new cfo finds something after HY between July and October.

Let's just hope the next RNS is either cosmens adding or confirming HY results date.

Yeah which is probably why that if a good price is not achieved, refinancing at 11% and plodding on with recovery for the following few years is a possible scenario.

I'm hoping worst case is refinancing the hybrid at 11% which is what Moodys seem to be assuming in their recent assessment

Yep Paddy boy I did, only difference is that RR was solely down to covid, but that was 4 years ago now so any excuses about recovering from covid here are just BS.

What gets me is, Garat was appointed in 2020, had a perfectly excellent operating model from the previous 7 years to obviously tweak because of covid and address the emergency.

How compared to trainline, FG, and pretty much every other company, has he made such a dogs dinner of such a well run company.

Astounding imo.

Sorry meant 500 mill for the hybrid

Cash raise doesn't bear thinking about at this level.

They would need to issue double the shares just to raise 600 mill, and that's without the incentive fir investors to participate. Say for every 2 you get 1 free, that's almost 2 billion shares to be issues at current sp to raise 600 million.

That would be curtains for the some if us with large holdings, no ?

Could they be referring to the net funds flow (last year 6.2) of actual cash leftover after all additions/deductions from the free cashflow figure (last year 163.7), and possibly assuming the Hybrid will be refinanced at 11% resulting in a negative net funds flow??

I'm still confused by that John, Sneedway trued addressing it, Pokerchips also.

From generating 160 plus free cashflow last year to negative for 3 years, don't understand what metrics they're using.

Also some of the provisions will be non recurring.

Gocpi

Got the same problem with Mobico, absolute disaster of an investment over 3 years like this.

Averaged down significantly on both but so much tied up in both, significantly down on both but more on MCG, and just seems like it's going to be a 4-5 year hold for both just to break even.

You're right so much easier said than done especially if you've got other small holdings. How do you look at say WOSG or EZJ and not these two.

I think nofear had a point the other day when he said this is widespread market occurrence when everything is just falling more often than not.

Trying very hard not to average down on anything until possibly after the cpi / boe rate decisions next week.

3.4 million shares bought since 3.15 and the price is still falling.

Small and midcaps heading towards new lows , can't beat this market, going to try and turn off until later this year

Very disappointing I have to say.

Looks like the market will want proof before any significant re-rate.

He's a filtered donkey still holding Evraz and asking if he write it off against CGT!!!!!!

I'm confused about FCF forecasts for this year as Moody and Fitch have them as negative this and next year.

Re the BA sake that's just wrong, they update on that in the FY results that waiting until q3/4 after schools bids contracts finalised would be more appropriate with a view to complete by year end.

So I'm not expecting any sale announcement/ update until later in the year, unless there's an opportunistic bid.

Where do you think the sp would be now without the Berenberg downgrade a few weeks ago and shorts increasing?

Still low but probably either side of 60, been some good US data and poor US data, which seems to affect MCG more than UK macro.

They would know John, you only have to look at the1 year bond price range for PFC, moving diwn steadily along with share price. The risk was / is d4e which is proving to be the case.

In actual fact the MCG bond price I think has risen slightly the last month.

Others correct me if I'm interpreting this incorrectly

So if this something underlying that the market / hedgefunds know, and shareholders going to get wiped out, why are the bonds stable and showing no signs of distress?

Over at pfc where debt payments have now been missed and d4e insinuated, the bond price was falling along with the sp for a sustained period before it became public.

That alone gives me some peace of mind

John I take it you're invested and well underwater like everyone else?

If so why are you overthinking every single possible negative scenario and exacerbating anxiety amongst all and yourself?