Member Info for JG68

Thinking out loud.

I don't see cosmens backing an RI next year for probably an amount only to address the equity element of the Hybrid, which even at this sp would be a significant dilution, and the company still burdened by 1 bill plus in debt.

Imo possibly it suits cosmens to have garat in post because he can control him to a degree.

Anyone else coming in might think let's sell Alsa now, probably get min 1.5 billion, and focus on turning round the remaining businesses.

That wouldn't probably suit cosmen because it's fair to assume he wants Alsa.

So either the stand off comes to a head and Cosmens is forced to either buy the company, or bid top dollar for Alsa, or a significant dilution to pay off a small part of debt.

Best case they get a good price for NA, but plan b could be to sell Alsa , be debt free and turnaround the NA business, UK and Germany.

Buy volume was decent enough today, plus 2 large after hour buys.

Means nothing in this market. At obe point today the price was dropping with a string of buys.

Bent market

Well it looks like all we can hope for now is no profit warning before HY in July, and then no profit warning from July until October, and shorts don't manage to aggressively short this too low.

A lot to ask for given recent events, and probably several more months of languishing.

What a diabolical investment choice.

Not sure what to make of it really.

The sp is like a ski slope through most of his tenure, everybody is well underwater, yet 416 million votes for keeping him in.

Is it reassuring that most of the IIs are happy to run with him?

Are they all in collaboration to wipe out PIs or is that too far fetched?

This conspiracy we were discussing some months ago, only logical explanation why cosmens want Garat in post is to continue destroying the sp.

Or he knows something we don't and is comfortable

What a 5h1t show of a day this is quickly becoming

This is so tedious, this is acting like a share does after a profit warning.

What happened to sp trajectory following results/ fundementals

Wealthtransfer

Possibly explains why the share price is what it is, the uncertainty around a sale coupled with slower recovery/ Hybrid first call date November 25, possibly extended adding 4% to cost of debt annually if extended.

Needs sorting ASAP , it's all mañana mañana with them, now end if year for potential sale, then if not sudden urgency.

So really even refinancing the hybrid as a single bond would lead to unacceptable covenant levels ?

Wealthtransfer

That's somewhat a tad reassuring.

So presumably they could refinance without the equity element, but that would mean an increase in debt of 250 million should that happen?

Meant don't need to take the loss

I'm losing sleep already on this one , but need to and cannot afford to take the loss currently.

If they are privy and holding which a majority are, surely that's mire reassuring than nerve shredding isn't it?

My big fears are one as wealthtransfer pointed out there could be more accounting irregularities surface when the new cfo is in post, hence Stamps removal, and two they don't manage to sell NA which will result in the hybrid having to be refinanced on unfavourable terms before next November, or a significant dilution to raise enough to pay it off.

Right now I'm getting out at the earliest opportunity, if there's a change of leadership that may change.

Last year it looks like 66% of shareholders voted, the % who vote for Garat will be interesting.

I will be looking at what % voted for the ceo to be re-elected.

Last year was over 400 mill shares, I think 99% of whom voted if I read it right.

Well according to both Moodys and Fitch in their ratings, cashflow will be negative this year and probably next.

There's nothing to stop this just plummeting now, no support level, nothing.

You're right, it's diabolical when you look at the 3 year chart, he's destroying this company according to the market, and seemingly not accountable to anyone.

JPMorgan are second largest II with about 6%, there are several around 3-4%, I'm amazed too that they are not even collaborating if it is Cosmens votes that keep him in post.

Have you ever asked these questions to IR, not that it would do much good?

People need to bombard IR with emails, that's all we can do.

He will no doubt be re voted in tomorrow, and we're all stuck and helpless, with him essentially managing our investments, it's a horrible situation.

My fear is he is so incapable that we're faced with an emergency fund raise next year to pay off the hybrid or even half of it.