Member Info for JG68

Paddyboy

The hybrid first call is next November which needs sorting well in advance.

The rest yeah plenty of time , plod on with recovery etc etc

Paddyboy

They're going to attack this just like they did THG, until they show several quarters of improvement, I can see us in the 30s very soon.

Despite all the buys going through they're dropping it at will.

Bottom drawer job for a good while

HV

Can they just buy back the equity element and then issue another bond for the other half?

So worst case scenario without a sale, either refinance at 11% or cash raise for the equity element 250mil ?

What's the reset options that wealthtransfer referred to?

Yeah agreed, worst case is my understanding.

They're trolls trying to unsettle people.

Schmoky

I think if they extend the hybrid it adds 4% making 8.75%, and if they converted the equity part to debt it would be unacceptable covenant level of debt, I think.

Jcb

In my lay opinion, we were comfortably around the 60s level either side give or take, until the Berenberg downgrade, couple with poor US data a week ago or so, leading to where we are on sentiment/ short increases only, and as pokerchips says US rate expectations.

Https://www.streetinsider.com/Intl+Ratings/HSBC+Reiterates+Buy+Rating+on+Mobico+Group+PLC+%28MCG%3ALN%29/22979386.html?classic=1

Hsbc valuation in March.

Trisor

I'm more concerned about capital losses the way this and my other largest holding MCG have performed the last 3 years!!!

Jcj

Do you really think you will lose 100% and this will go bust?

Do you not think that if push came to shove and NA schools sale isn't agreed by year end as they stated, that they have a growing business in Alsa which could be offloaded ( probably a queue of buyers) at at least 1.5 billion making MCG debt free?

So many traders on here, trolls entering to disrupt , ask yourself the question, knowing that Alsa is growing, profitable and the Jewel in their crown, do you think they're going bust?

If yes and you feel that mcg is comparable to Cineworld etc then sell, if not just hold and try to forget as I'm doing.

When you think about it only 6 months until FY so 25 not far away.

And I think he's making an effort to emphasise and re-emphasise FY24 expectations to the market so it doesn't whack the sp each time a similar thing us announced. He's trying to steady the volatility.

Wealthtransfer and others.

Was just chatting this through with a family member and they said " do you think they will go bust?"

And for the reasons I stated below ie value if Alsa more than covering debt, and probably easily mire saleable right now than say NA, the answer was no I don't, despite the market and shorts.

I think I've got to keep it as simple as that.

That's a ridiculous statement, why would anyone entertain a low ball bid in the 40s when if push came to shove they could sell Alsa probably quite easily for 2.50 p/ s and be left with the remaining businesses and debt free ?

Illogical.

This is sentiment driven since the Berenberg downgrade

Mavswf

Same boat mate, the daily stress is becoming unbearable now, and I'm in urgent need of finding a way to ride it out and block it out.

To be honest the only thing that keeps me invested is that this is sentiment driven, and that they could theoretically sell off Alsa for a song and be debt free.

So although an intangible asset, it's worth multiples of what the current mcap is worth.

So although cosmen will never allow that to happen, it will hopefully force an end game to this awful saga, it's just a case of holding your nerve indefinitely.

This is exactly what the market and shorts did to THG after a series of profit warnings, with 3 divisions of the company worth a lot more individually, but with a mouthy ceo .

I can see them driving this down to the 30s without a peep out of the board.

Smokey

I can't sell for such a loss.

Let's not forget that this was comfortably around 60s until the berenberg downgrade which has caused this. It's sentiment driven nothing fundamental but management are not helping.

For me personally it will like a hammer blow psychologically to go 40s, 30s, I don't get how no one sees value with NA and Alsa to even add except Cosmens.

Theoretically they could sell Alsa and be debt free.

Looking at the trades it seems mms determined to take this into 40s