Member Info for JerseyCrew

Breaking news:
Just checked my watch.....
It's still Friday.

OOSM - Have my own theory on OCIM but we will never know - a deal like this from OCIM's side will have involved several parties - those that look at the commerciality of the transaction / those at the top that review and recommend further up the chain - then some sort of credit committee and probable CEO for final sign off. They say fine get it done and make sure that we have security. OCIM lawyers will be tasked to sort the contract and will probably need Kenyan lawyers - different jurisdiction and different laws and processes. From my experience with corporate lawyers they absolutely hate making a decision that can stick to them - the amount of times my internal lawyers said we needed external opinion was almost 100% of the time for anything that wasn't vanilla. My experience with lawyers as well is that these are not entrepreneurial types wanting to get the job done - it seems that from early in their careers they are training to run up billable hours (broke into minutes often). Again from experience the more problems they can find the more they seem to wallow in their own self esteem - you might tell by now that I am not a huge fan of lawyers but they are a necessary evil (apologies to all lawyers here).
So imagine a scenario where some OCIM lawyer who has never touched Kenyan law hasn't actually checked with his outsourced council early on about legal assignments over mining licences but has instead just made an assumption based on other jurisdictions - then as the clock is ticking down someone asks the question and suddenly they realise there is an issue and they need to cover that issue with an additional condition. Anyone who has dealt with contracts and lawyers might be able to imagine this scenario. So al can be proceeding exactly as Robbie believed and then a left field additional request comes in. Robbie tries his best to get an extension and parties together to discuss and the head honcho looks and says why isn't this sorted? / How long will it take? / Not acceptable I am not extending timelines indefinitely.
Who knows!?
So many scenarios that you can imagine.
I think if the law was to change over night then they might come back to the table - the wording in the RNS was such that Robbie left on good terms. Changing the law is time consuming though unless the Mining Minister could be persuaded to intervene to make an exception if that were indeed possible under his mandate.
ATB and remember the gold is there!!

Sorry - one more thought on OCIM with drawing. Anyone that has been involved in any sizeable commercial loan with a Bank will know that it is standard for their to be a withdraw by date. Once an offer of a commercial loan is made the Bank has to remove that number from the available funds to lend - it is committed although not drawn. Whilst it is rarely a material issue for a major bank it would prevent a smaller institution from lending that money elsewhere to make a return. So from a commercial perspective it makes sense for OCIM to withdraw their offer if they are not prepared to negotiate on the security question. Waiting for a change in legislation could take years. Security from a Bankers perspective is the backstop but an incredibly important backstop. The business plan and ability to execute can be flawless but without adequate security many a deal a has unstuck at the 11th hour. This is not unusual but it is unusual to be presented with a security requirement so advanced in the negotiations.

Hi ID78 - I haven't been reading this board today - frankly too much doom and gloom - your post was actually posted on the Telegram group though so I though it would be rude not to reply.
I am as disappointed and surprised with the news as Robbie and most people here was. RM has given a thorough explanation of what happened and it is difficult to think what he could have done differently when asked for a unicorn in the run to Christmas. He did his best but OCIM were not prepared to extend their date and I get their decision if they were adamant on taking security over the licence - what is very frustrating is why that part of the jigsaw wasn't requested from GCAT months before - either the Mining Minister might have been able to do something or we parted our ways sooner and alternative finance pursued. We are however where we are and now faced with another 3 to 6 month delay in getting the production rate to 24K oz pa - I am managing my own expectations with the latter taking us to the end of 2023.
The key now is for Robbie to deliver the production numbers for Q3 and Q4 shortly thereafter to demonstrate and remind everyone that this is a producing gold mine and we have the back drop of POG in the ascendence. Lets wait for the numbers but look at them in the context of the disruption whilst attention was diverted to the expansion - context and understanding is everything and too many here take snippets of information and weave their own narrative.
So - disappointing in the extreme but Robbie has already self flagellated in 2 interviews yesterday and shouldered responsibility for those things within his control - no smokes and mirrors but clear apologies with a commitment to learn and change - what more can you ask for other than he now delivers on those promises.
Just remember the gold is there and the commodity is rising in value. The business case for extraction is even stronger now than when OCIM and Philoro went over the numbers with a fine tooth comb. There are a number of suitors wanting to play a part and the task now is to choose the best non dilutive option at the most beneficial commercial terms but also in the most expedite fashion.
Final thoughts - our MC here is still a joke when considering the asset in the ground and the infrastructure in place - this is not a pure explorer - it is an established gold mine with expansion plans to extract known resource and we hope a second commercial venture in the future in years to come.
I understand that people will be smarting and want heads on sticks - that will not achieve anything. We are still undervalued and there is a plan in place to realise that value. Anyone not up for that journey now can leave whenever. I am staying personally.
ATB

It would be worse if it was a DNR !

MMs like volatility and trades - rising or falling they make money. Unfortunately with the economy and financial uncertainty in the world, it is easier for traders to play on the pessimism rather than optimism of the human psyche at the moment. Contrast now to the early 80,s when new entrants / listings to the market were almost guaranteed over subscription and an immediate premium to their placing price. Those were the days for anyone old enough to have played the game then. Understanding human nature with investing is as big a part as understanding balance sheets / p&l’s and let’s face it - a certain amount of luck and right place right time and disposable funds.
ATB

As always it’s a game.
Currently 100% to do with traders and playing with sentiment and absolutely nothing to do with the company, it’s progress, it’s resources or near term (in mining timelines) production output level.
It will get back to and exceed previous levels. Like a cork in rising water, you can keep bashing it down but it will float back to the surface.
Have a great Christmas one and all and enjoy 2023 - it’s going to be an amazing one for Caracal and it’s investors.

I forgot to highlight Robbie's point about conservative nature of the figures produced - they even applied an internal conservative factor to make sure it could stand the test of time.

Good tough questions asked - all those being asked here - why the slippage and where are the production figures. Robbie answered each question full with his typical honesty and forthright fashion. He certainly put into context the success story behind getting the finance in record time for a company of Caracal's size but also the shear volume of work and coordination required from the management team to satisfy the due diligence and legal requirements faced. We know Caracal is running a lean management team and lessons learned in getting pulled in multiple directions but it answers the question of why have there have been delays in getting the production figures out - not enough hours in the day.
2023 is going to be transformational - not doubt in my mind.
ATB

Or
https://twitter.com/stockboxmedia/status/1605883446479523843?s=46&t=x0-mZZomNeqUB9rTGA9jPw

Maintaining an AISC at $1095 is a fantastic achievement in my view given this number or close to it has been touted around for some time and consider global inflation in commodity prices in 2022.

That is a lot of words to say that you would like an explanation Legalwolf. It is a valid request however and one that I anticipate being addressed by Robbie. In the meantime I suggest revisiting the definition of black swan events.
ATB

ID78 - I have learned to wait for an explanation for delays - curve balls come in all shapes and sizes - the term black swan covers an infinite number of pitfalls - without knowing the detail at the moment, I already take comfort from the fact that we are being told now and not in February - to me that means that they are constantly revising based on what is happening on the ground now and have advised the market in good time. I actually see that as a management strength but we all see things differently. Lets wait for the explanation in my view and in the meantime reflect on the positives from today's excellent RNS.
ATB

Further decoding anticipated later today hopefully by Robbie himself. Talk of a StockBox interview taking place - I am sure he will address the elephant in the room (could not resist given the proximity to the Masai Mara!). My focus is on the big picture here and the disconnect with the current MC - a clear buying signal for those decoding correctly in my view.

I will give the company an extra 3 months to deliver on such a positive and conservative plan - I keep coming back to our current MC in the face of the conservative numbers in the forecast - and that is just with this project- don’t forget Vim Rutha a few metres away!!
We are in for a huge 2023!!
Thanks for the early Christmas present Robbie.
ATB

One would imagine that warrant holders would have simply purchased sub 1p with any spare funds. When these were issued no one knew that the SP was going to stagnate at the low levels they did. We should have been a much higher MC at this point frankly. Timing as always is everything in life.
ATB

No not idiots - just learning the game. We’ve all been there. A good learning lesson as this sort of SP movement will happen time and time again on the journey north. Just remember where we are going - buying back in is not a bad decision either.

Yes Paul a mistake - please ignore the £

ShareTalk posted a timely reminder a day ago that the company are targeting £74K oz pa - £24K initially from Kili with Tanzania having the potential to produce £50K - a little way down the line for Tanzania but it's number to play with on your calculators.
I see the bid price is a fraction over 1p presently - nice!
ATB

There are interesting comparisons out there to Caracal but GGP is not in that mix. Anyone thinking this is going to 30 bag is simply wrong I’m afraid. I’m with sw - and Robbie for that matter - we are seriously undervalued at the moment and a realistic Market Cap at the moment is minimum 50M and anything up to 100M - a big difference I know between the 2 but we have a lot of unknowns at the moment. We do have some tantalising drill results which will be added to over the months to come.
So without blatantly ramping here, I would say that Caracal is presently seriously undervalued and I expect this to at least bag once in the next 3 to 4 months and maybe sooner. The distractions of funding are out of the way - the CEO and his team are focusing on delivering and what a magnificent job he and they have done so far. The news flow is going to quicken from here in. Enjoy the ride.