Member Info for Jerryspaniel

Scottie, thats exactly why I wouldnt invest a penny in Prim.

Spy was it you? Shall we do it all again?!

Sometimes these moderators see things that arent there.....

Patrick, is that a quote that you have pulled from somewhere because it’s quite misleading, albeit in a technical way rather than in a way that would interest most people!

I think a lot of us moaned when there were no webinars and no information so I think we should cut them some slack for at least having webinars. It’s just that if you haven’t got new information to share then don’t insult our intelligence with same old, same old....
An RNS with drill results with a webinar on those would be perfectly acceptable, as would one on why they accepted the BHP bid at £3.125......Or was it 31.25pence?

Newtoit, thats either a sight for sore eyes, or a sight that will make my eyes sore.....!

Morning newtoit. Maybe you should send that list to the house brokers as they dont seem to be able to sell the story to the instos.

Bully, not many really. Scally is much much bigger!!

If it’s loads of copper, maybe GH does JV with Rios? Trucked to winu?

TMT, thanks for your post. I think we should assume that the uk quote is part of the US quote. Makes it easier and not hugely significant either way.
Because we don’t really know all the maths behind the rather complicated modified cap weighted index calculation I don’t think I could online as to whether it’s weighting would be 0.40 or 0.50%, though obviously this is quite a difference. If the index decided to remove some of the bigger companies this would have a bigger impact on changing the weighting. Also the amount of investors money flowing into or out of the gdxj would also have a large impact.
At this stage I think the chances of us being in the gdx before this time next year are remote. Maybe this news has stopped some of the range sellers appearing today. If I was thinking of selling, I know that it would put me off....

Well the instos are really piling into Solgold today. They just cant get enough of these shares. So far just over £26,000 have traded. What a joke!

It does look like the two indices that the GDX and GDXJ track need some rebalancing. Trouble is that these two indices are run by different organisations. So you have $10b mkt cap companies at the top of the GDXJ and $1b companies at the bottom of the GDX. GDX is a much bigger tracker with $17b so a small company in the GDX would have a disproportionately large amount of buying. There is also some overlap, so there are a few companies bizarrely in both!
Given the volatility of gold stocks in last few months some more radical changes could be afoot.

Morning all. Not sure I can add much to the excellent posts by AM90 and TmT. I concur with all that has been said. Only one thing of note is that the index caps the larger companies at a max 8%, and there is a strict and complicated formula to apply to arrive at the various weightings. So this reduces the weighting of the largest companies (many of whom are $5-10b mkt cap), and therefore increases the relative weighting of the smaller companies. If we look for a constituent that has a similar mkt cap to GGP ($650m undiluted) we get to Great Bear Resources which has a mkt cap of about $600m and a weighting of 0.40% on the total mkt cap of GDXJ which is about $6.4b. So if GGP were included (and there appears to be a degree of latitude given to the makeup of the index) GGP should have a weighting of around 0.43% or $27.5m or 160m shares. The amount of shares will fluctuate depending on the investors money coming into or exiting GDXJ and would probably be rebalanced often as GDXJ is a fund where money comes and goes in fairly big chunks. Hope this adds to the excellent work done so far.
One question I dont know is whether the small UK quote is part of the US quote or whether it should be added to the US quote. Not a big deal at $350m or 5% but would be nice to know.

I would say at this stage it’s a possibility not a probability unless you know something TMT. There have been a few false starts in the index rebalances viz wallbridge. Not sure that instos would make this gamble ahead of sept 11th. Hedge funds might and PIs might. But the last two would do so after the 11th. But anyone who thought this might be true would be crazy to sell ahead. So just taking out the sellers would be significant.
In theory the numbers could be bigger if we could find other funds or trackers that follow the MVIS.

And me Quady!!

The best news for solgolds sp would be if two parties wanted to buy it. The worst news would be if no one wanted to buy it.
One bid might light the fire. Money talks....

DBW and quady. There is no liquidity at 24/27, but if an insto wanted to buy a stake then I think they would get all they wanted at 30-32 and if they were buying for the end game, then a couple of pence shouldn’t make much difference if it’s sold for £2.50. Maybe they don’t see value, which I think we would all find odd. Would love to hear an insto’s view on the stock. Preferably one who has looked at it and not invested.

So if there is going to be a bidding war or even just one bid, why is the sp still under 27p. It’s been flagged by many journos and commentators for a while and yet no price movement. We have even had strong product prices to give it a push, but still diddly squat. Baffling.

£2.50? Is that after a 5 for 1 share consolidation?

DBW. I hope it will be interesting to hear what he has to say, because that will be a first! I expect I will have fallen asleep though...zzzz

I guess I should reply to various posters who have posed some thoughts/questions.
Addicknt, yes 50p would give me an acceptable return over two years for a risky stock like exploring in Ecuador. £1 would be an exceptional return.
Quady, I really dont know what NM wants, but whatever it is I dont think he is doing a very good job of it! Unfortunately one of the CEOs job is to promote the company and the sp. He is dreadful at that, Should let JW do all the presentations. He is so much more charismatic. Whatever NM does want he will find it a lot easier if the sp was 50p now rather than half that. For that he is responsible.
Novice, I wont sell now cos on a r/r basis this is good value and I think I will make money. That applies to everything I own, or I wouldnt own it. I dont know anything about the companies you mention and I am not going to find out but thanks for the ideas. If by Xmas we havent had a bid or some other price changing event then I would doubt we are going to get one any time soon, so on a r/r basis, there probably wont be much reward. You are entitled to your view about my portfolio but I do wonder what that view is based upon.
Miagi, yes obviously GGP skews the results a lot. But I also have a lot of silver and gold and the miners of the same and no broad equity exposure. Other contributors have been DSV, GDXJ, SSLN, Merian G&S, SVE and ELY. Their performance has given me the return I mentioned, not GGP which I hadnt factored in. SOLG is the only 'mining' stock that I own that hasnt followed PMs.
Not sure any of this helps the discussion, but it might provide some clarity or explain the frustration.
And just to re-iterate, my preference is to sell Cascabel/ENSA and go exploring which is the company's strength, core competence etc. If that was the case I would be a happy s/holder and I think the sp would be 60-80p, before any distribution.