Member Info for JDwag

All of the 442m Warrants due for expiry on 3 May will almost certainly be duly exercised IMO, SGB (including the BoD shares included in that package).

The actions on Kibo’s SP today and other days lately where it’s never truly achieved a speed to break out of “orbit” is a direct consequence of the last 3 years of confetti and warrants being sprayed about, it can’t come as a surprise that this is the short / medium term consequences of that when genuine demand and volumes pick up on what is genuinely positive developments. But, as I say, we are where we are and taking 0.40p in Warrants for £1.7m+ is far better than going fishing around for an equivalent amount in a placing (we know what that does to the SP here)!

That aside, it’s a great buying opportunity, we are now valued at some 40% below the stake in MAST alone, which is pretty psychotic when you think about it. I picked up some more here at .43p, why not, with current assets it’s a complete “free hit” investment now.

I notice the CEO at MAST has taken a 10% stake in the company from the IPO…

Have a great day everyone.

JD

Taken up £2.3m / 10% of the company in shares from the IPO?

JD

That SP seems reasonable and consideribg what they are planning is nothing special, actually. If they sell it well through RNS(S) tomorrow / rest of the week on funding and pipeline, who really knows, the market may take an extreme liking to them…

JD

18p. Close in a couple of weeks time? 32p per share. It's a £60m MCAP Company if it funds and delivers it's first 71Mw IMHO, then who knows what it has up it's sleeve:

“The current pipeline stock of sites that MED currently have access to is:

9 MW Project
5 MW Bordersley
40 MW (2 by 20 MW) in negotiation Under Cover of Heads of Terms
6 MW Option/Lease Agreement secured
11 MW Under negotiation and to be confirmed on successful listing

Phase 1 Pipeline Total 71 MW

Pipeline; - Further Phases

As mentioned before, MED interfaces with developers at all levels of site development and the following sites are currently under review as part of MED Business Development plans:

3 by 6 MW RP Shovel ready sites;
1 by 50 MW RP site; and
6 by 50 MW RP sites in varying stages of development.”

https://med.energy/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/MAST-prospectus-IPO.pdf

JD

It’s not as easy as that to compare Mw v Mw comparison IMO. Many factors come in to play when getting investors to pony up that kind of cash to value MAST on the starting blocks at £23.5m, not least what we here don’t know yet such as future Mw guidance in the next 6, 12, 24, 36 Months, etc. the strength and ease of the pipeline of projects, the strength of partners and funding arrangements, etc.

There is big plans here at MAST when you look at the Prospectus, someone is putting up serious cash here to facilitate that via the debt portion of things. Follow the money as they say.

P.S don’t know the first thing about CORCEL, I’m not making a comparison as can’t.

JD

...of trading till MAST lists I wish all genuine holders out there the very best of investing fortune. There are good people on here, whom, like myself have taken a very large personal financial position and risk in investing in an AIM Start-Up over many years, and it would be pretty great to see it starting to be worth it.

JD

You have to expect MAST will have kept the best news to themselves for RNS release tomorrow / rest of this week.

When you go back through old RNSs here, I'm expecting a big MAST Funding RNS, possibly along the lines of a multimillion debt facility being announced to roll out the projects up to 100 Mw and beyind. Just a hunch.

JD

A pretty smashing day tomorrow, highest LSE Volumes on a single trading day in the last 5 years was 180m or so, we should easily take that out when #MAST hits the trading floors IMO and peeps see the tangible value with their own eyes.

What a time to be alive.

JD

Easily, GLR1990. If you look at the annual accounts and deducted the liabilities, they are listed at £30m assets. That’s before you add the Warrants as Cash and whatever MAST IPO does on Wednesday (although some of MAST in the form of Bordersley is already listed as an Asset on the books). I actually see a scenario here where our MAST holding in isolation is far in excess of our MCAP at some time on Wednesday’s trading day, it’s just the situation we find ourselves in.

The issue here is there are lots of shares to change hands before you get a solid rise and the Warrants get churned through the system, not to mention the folks who are happy with their 5/10% trade or the ones who buy in on hype and panic and sell at a loss not understanding the play here.

The road to Damascus wasn’t a straight one for St Paul, either…

You all have a wonderful Spring Evening, and I’ll see you for the Bedlam tomorrow at 8am :-)

JD

Lovely, wasn't expecting that gift.

JD

SGB, I find the “risk-off” correlation between the KIBO’s attempts at a PPA and NCCL’s attempts at a PPA interesting.

On the basis they get the 200Mw and 60Mw commitments from Baobab and Vale, respectively (whoever end up owning the current Vale Coal asset) that the Moz Government “only” need to commit to pay for the remaining 90Mw or so from the combined plant, it’s a long way off the cost and future commitment and risk for the 300Mw NCCL are negotiating for.

There is also the “multiplier” effect that KIBO’s Plant would directly fund the massive Baobab and Vale Mines respectively, not just the power plant that would create employment but the cascade of the power producing much more industrialisation via a massive steel and vandium project and much more coal being produced and consummed out of the Vale Coal Mine.

On paper you can argue that the Moz Government get much more out of KIBO’s Power Plant with less than a third of the commitment spend and pass the risk on to Private Companies who will probably be subsidising a big chunk the costs of the 90Mw that will be going to the Moz Government.

All IMHO.

JD

A coin to pay Charon for passage...

JD

I always think “success begets success” in business. With one Toe over the line it’s more likely the rest of the body will follow.

JD

Looking at a circa 350-400Mw Power Plant. I assume that Baobab will sign a PPA when EDM do and it will be the whole thing over the line in one process? Gives it a stronger business case if Baobab need it also before their own project can advance.

Benga can be viewed as having no asset value attributed to it based on Kibo’s current MCAP! Hopefully all that will slowly start to change!

JD

The 442m (is now much less than this obviously) Warrants that need to exercised before 3 May, no biggie, in fact, with Warrant’s being exercised and no fundraising imminent it’s far better for a sustained rise once we get past the bottleneck. This, sadly, is the SP’s short term dealing with historical failings on the share register and the amount of shares that have been sprayed around here since 2019, but we are where we are.

Our 55% of MAST will probably be worth double our current MCAP at some point this week IMHO, the crazy world of AIM.

JD

I’m expecting 32p per share in the first few weeks, call it a mindless ramp if that’s your persuasion, however, I can work it out without too much effort based on future earning potential of 50Mw within the first 6 / 12 months guidance.

JD

As a touch of fun, what price can we see MAST climb to after listing on Wednesday?

JD

Page 31 of prospectus and Page 14 of the presentation contains information on Battery Tech from Kibo's partner ESS.

JD

amin0406, get ready for a big week me thinks. At a very maximum, 25% to be tradable (44,320,000) and how many of that is actually locked up? They'll be very little out there to trade and I can see how you get MAST to a lot more than £23.5m MCAP through future possible earnings. A big MAST listing and lot's of cash coming to Kibo in the way of warrants and BoD Warrants executed in early May. Should be good 2/3 weeks.

JD

Wolves2211, there will be some 300m+ Warrants (minus the Warrants already taken) between now and 3rd May when they expire (see below RNS from 18 September). This will have a short term effect on the SP in as much as many will be presold then taken up and paid back. However, in the long term Warrants taken up is good as there will be no bucket-shop raising coming for funds which will detrimentally hold back the SP (which is why the SP is so low in the first place here as we are still dealing with our historical failings on share issues). The BoD will also be taking up £200k in Warrants before 3rd May, which will be bullish.

It will hold things up, but if MAST does what I expect on Wednesday expect it to “wash” these Warrants out quickly and we will be on our way IMHO.

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/KIBO/clarification-to-company-rns-of-17-september-2020-63qjo69mildvzmi.html

JD