Member Info for jds15

Neil

I am sure you are right. I think what we are examining is Canaccord Quest's analysis of why it has been analysed as a bid target. Are you saying that if the SP stays around this level for the next 18 months on the same PE it would never become a target of either and agreed or contested bid?

All the reasons you list make her useful.

Yours is a good warning however Blackrock does not have that sort of record.

1ontheup

I will try to Quest

https://www.google.com/search?q=Canaccord+Genuity%E2%80%99s+Quest+Marks+and+spencer&oq=ca&gs_lcrp=EgZjaHJvbWUqBggBEEUYOzIGCAAQRRg7MgYIARBFGDsyBggCEEUYOTIGCAMQRRhAMgYIBBBFGDwyBggFEEUYPDIGCAYQRRg8MgYIBxBFGDzSAQgyMjYwajBqN6gCCLACAQ&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

Hi 1ontheup

It's just my feeling. I have only met Archie once years ago when he was FD at Kingfisher. In fact, he was really running the co and Mulcahy let him get on with it. Everyone finds him a cold fish. If the market doesn't appreciate him he will deal. Let me get the link for you. He will not sit around at the end of his career with a SP that does not appreciate the stunning evolution

I am probably wrong but apart from Berenberg the analysts all seem to be sticking to their forecasts. I agree. It would be a huge pity if MKS went. What has been achieved is a testament to management and staff.

If the price were right and an agreed deal with the top class management in place?

We are more or less a Chinese vassal state.

If someone bids 470p it is unlikely institutional investors will reject it. Their trustees will insist that they do what is right for the pensions. In any case, it is much more likely to be agreed bid. That would certainly suit Stuart. What is the point in sweating your sphericals off in the market doesn't value you and your teams efforts. Just a point of view.

Canaccord Genuity’s Quest team has just published its list of companies ripe for takeover: the likes of Marks & Spencer, Tate & Lyle and ITV are listed. I make no comment.

I suppose it will all depend on the results in May. I wonder if it is necessary for the company to announce Christmas trading figures

I am sure you are correct on panicking private shareholders

RWC own around 5% and wrote this back in the day titled 'in for nothing' Marks and Spencer

Our thesis for Marks was that the market was ascribing no value to its clothing and home business, if one put a reasonable value on its food retail operation and its stake in Ocado. Since our original blog, the share price has risen by 145% and whilst the market has belatedly begun to recognise the transformation going on within the company, we would still argue that the market is not ascribing full value to the assets. The current enterprise value of Marks is £5.6bn or £4.1bn once we deduct the value of their stake in Ocado which we estimate at £1.5bn. The Marks & Spencer food business is forecast to make about £280m of operating profit (Bloomberg Consensus Estimates) this year which if valued on a post-tax p/e of 13x would be worth £2.9bn, whilst their International business could be worth £1.1bn. Deducting these we can estimate that the Clothing and Home business is being valued by the stock market at c. £100m despite the fact that Marks is the UK’s number one clothing retailer by market share (number two on line) and is forecast to make operating profits of over £300m this year (Bloomberg Consensus Estimates) . In addition, it is worth considering that Marks owns a significant amount of the real estate from which it operates (net book value of the land and buildings is £2.2bn). Putting all of this together suggests that investors are yet to recognise the true value of the businesses.

Thanks Trendz, I have to say I learn a lot from people commenting here. Let me ask how much attention do you all pay to chart analysis of the stock?

In my Ft i only saw a fairly neutral and general piece on the sector. Was there an actual buy recommendation?

In my Ft i only saw a fairly neutral and general piece on the sector. Was there an actual buy recommendation?

You are always very sound and I am sure you are right about an exit price but I assume the majority of the institutional investors must be sitting on huge profits. Would they not be happy with 450?

Good assessment. My point is that it must be disheartening for Stuart and team to experience such an extreme reaction to excellent progress. He was ill advised to sound so downbeat.

Sorry, what valuation is reasonable?

Sorry, what valuation is reasonable?