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Kerching
Many of us in your position including myself. I must say, in his last interview (link below) with Deborah Malone, he looks deflated and very pessimistic.
As you say, let's hope be pulls a rabbit out of hat, to be honest, I don't care whether it is a rabbit or a donkey as long as it is something that reverses this 95% extremely long downtrend.
I wish the directors would put their hands in their pockets to show a little bit of confidence though
Petevid
My opinion. Overall I'm bearish near term, however, the decline has been so brutal that if S4 is able to come up with good numbers and a positive story/ outlook for the future horizon, it could result in a projectile ascend.
My worry is, despite all the hype, S4 does not have a moat and bigger agencies with big pockets are investing more into AI, not to mention the big platforms now selling the generative AI software to SME's hence taking a layer of potential customers from agencies.
Having said all that, extreme negativety and really bearish case scenarios are, I think, priced in.
As far as the hallmarks of a good & stable company, S4 has none!
Rinse and repeat, 15-20% swings on no news, all time lows despite recent market rally, the stocks price and behaviour tells you all you need to know!
This stock just keeps getting played around/traded. It seems no many people have the conviction to hold long term, if they did, we would have a steady upwards incline, instead, we are still sitting close to all time lows.
Caveman
The feeling is mutual! I suggest, respectfully, that you voice your opinions without attacking or trying to ridicule other people. We are here to discuss ideas, telling someone to get a hobby for voicing their opinions is simply childish. Let's leave it at that
Cheers Kularatnam
I'm hoping from next year we will have better visibility, I'm not selling my shares by the way despite my bearish outlook so I genuinely wish any long term holders luck.
They do say the time to buy is when maximum pessimism prevails, well the brutal decline here indicates we must be there or close to it so fingers crossed we have some respite soon.
🤞
Caveman
"Oh, and Vikings isn’t on Netflix, maybe a little more research is required"
Hahaha please elaborate!! Perhaps you can re-read the thread after you have watched the video in the link that Kularatnam provided. You are embarrassing yourself.
I haven't attacked anyone here personally but 3 times now Caveman you have been unpleasant to me, the last time telling me I should get a hobby, now telling posters to ignore me and that I don't hold any shares which is a blatant lie.
Learn some respect mate.
Kularatnam
My view is that ad agencies face an existential threat, some of the small ones will probably not make it, some will get swallowed up by the bigger ones, consolidation.
The big 6 are getting bigger, bringing a lot of the work in house, in addition, they are creating software which enable small and medium size businesses to go it alone so it does look grim.
The US government wants to reign in some of the power the big platforms like Meta, Google etc have and stop their predatory tactics of forcing publishers and advertisers to use their propietary ad technology so this is a positive.
The year ahead will remain tough in my view.
Caveman, Kularatnam asked for my opinion not yours. You display the key attributes of an ignorant, not willing to contemplate other opinions but your own.
Kularatnam
Hahaha yes very reassuring, "I think Vikings is on Netflix"
Netflix being one of their biggest clients and he doesn't have a clue!
There is just no hope with this dog of a company, no wonder they keep getting their forecasts wrong with the people they employ!
Pleasure Nige
I found this interview by Deborah Malone (the same lady who recently interviewed Sir Martin) really interesting.
It seems the ad- agencies clients have been behaving badly. This is discussed in the later part of the interview.
They touch in how the in house agency staff are often treated unfavourably, I also took from this interview how the clients are starving the agencies of the income necessary for the agencies themselves to train their staff and invest in the necessary software and development.
It seems the model needs to change so agencies get paid for outcomes/ results in order to remain profitable.
Link below
https://youtu.be/m8pLmUamjd4?si=NiFDaeBFYbMdZLER
Juan still holds 28221762 shares with nearly £11mill, any selling wouldn't be showing under directors selling as he is a strategic advisor. Whilst he has sold shares, which in my view I rate as negative, specially as he is an advisor, it's slightly reassuring that he has only sold 0.5% of his holdings.
Nige
If you look at the employee stock ownership plan, there has been a reduction of 6.81%. This could well be for to the massive reduction in numbers of employees in the last 5-6 months.
Verney
Most people here got burned, myself more than most probably at -45k in the hole (68% down). So perhaps, with this in mind, I find comments made by the few rather than those of most people likely to be more valuable, even when put forward in a blunt manner.
Verney
Pokership makes some good points though. I much prefer his comments to that of LifeIArisk "noted how certain negative comments have started too....LOL..." if this new poster thinks a share which has dropped 95% is not deserving of negative comments, this new character is very native indeed.
Pokerchips
Yes we all know it's difficult to forecast in a rapid declining environment, however, as 404x says, 3 warnings in one year?? Furthermore, reiterating guidance 3 weeks prior to trading statement to then find the reiteration to be so far off the mark, in my opinion, inexcusable for a man of this caliber & experience. There are other issues relating to poor comms.
Anyway, moving forward and leaving past aside, the issues I see going forth;
Generative AI working against small ad agencies
A lot of the S4 people working in house for Meta, Netflix etc jumping ship and working directly for the them, if they are really that good at what they do I'm sure Meta and the likes would employ them directly, hence resulting in loss of talent.
S4 being out of his depth in this new paradigm shift, i.e working from home etc
Listen to SMS time after time saying that he wishes his employees were like bots so that each one knew what all the others are doing and viceversa. This tells me he has little control and it is out of his depth.
We might be in awe at his knowledge of the macro and geopolitical but what we need Martin to do is to run the business well.
Do you ever hear Mark Zuckerberg talk much about geopolitics?? The answer is no, however, he runs his business efficiently and profitably.