Current Risk v Potential reward8 May 2020 17:22
I've bought a few more shares (well, put the order in at least). The risk v potential reward makes the current share price very tempting imo.
We've been at around 10-15p since June for the most part. The sales process and suing Samsung took the price up to around 30p. We've only lost one of those drivers, yet have moved to a 7-10p range. Looks oversold to me.
Risks that I can see:
1. Samsung win the court case - Unlikely, but high severity. No big pay day and were left licking our wounds/ scrabbling round for small contracts here and there.
2. We run out of cash - moderate chance (although several options to raise cash), high severity. Would lead to large dilution probably.
3. Technology becomes obsolete - unlikely in short to medium term (as shown by the amount of interest starting to be shown in QDs by some big players), high severity.
Potential rewards:
1. We win court case - large damages (multiple times current market cap). Would open door to further damages in other counties. Medium likelihood.
2. Out of court settlement with Samsung. Large payment for past use and obtain lucrative future use contract. Regular cash flow for the foreseeable future. High likelihood.
3. Obtain other smaller contracts with other companies. Sounds like apple (sorry. "The American partner") dropping out has opened the door to other companies who are interested in the tech. Likely, but probably won't be a big pay day.
4. More stringent rules on cadmium based dots. Medium likelihood. We've been holding our breath on Europe for a while though. Would likely lead to more orders/interest though.
The risks seem relatively unlikely to happen (although most would be severe if they came to fruition), whereas the potential rewards are huge and relatively likely in my opinion.