Member Info for January24

POO - I believe the wild card here is actually Putin !
Putin has a huge ego ! We know Europe will restrict the purchase of Russian oil with sanctions becoming live on 5th December. The price cap (figure) should be released for russian oil in the coming days.
I believe Putin's ego will force him to act first ! He will want to "save face", therefore I expect him to announce in the coming weeks that Russia will STOP the sale of Russian oil to Europe . This should cause a push up for POO as I can't see Russia selling all it's oil to Asia. Logistics won't allow it ! Maybe 1m-2m barells Off the market ! Putin will bank on higher price negating his loss in volume.

Hi Voice,
I agree with you. However my guess is Biden will act if POO goes back over 100. He could do a reverse OPEC - reduce release to half million a day until year end = total another 45m for the 3 months. More for effect as much as solving any problem. The market will then react as he wants by seeing a falling POO back below 100. Just my thoughts.

Hi E121,
I posted last week about the possibility of more releases from the US SPR after October. You kindly replied giving your thoughts that the spr release would stop in October, as planned.
I read that the Biden team are at this stage, just looking at the possibility to an extension to the spr release, as they have concerns about the rising price of oil in qtr4. - we shall see what happens.

Agreed romaron, a sad day indeed.

Hi Spin,
Interesting thoughts, however the priory at Bury St. Edmunds is a wonderful place. Superb gardens.
I understand many are buried there..In those days people eat their greens. Nowdays we have to listen to them as well.
Back to Energy. I feel sure that AB is pleased with Liz Truss as she is supportive of O&G. Indeed I would go as far as saying that politics has turned in our favour (at last). Now we just need POO to move back up over $100 and do the same.

Hi Spin,
Glad you got back in one piece !
They have not levelled-up there yet, still behind !
For one, they do not have a decent football team up there.

Nice find KO. Hope all is good and well with you.
We just need POO to change direction and we will see 30p+ in no time !

I was at the Spurs game last night seeing them win 2-0 in the Champions League. I was at the Paxton Road end and I thought I saw romaron in the VIP seats. Well someone looked just like him. Oh and our 'green friend" chilting was there too, out on the pitch -checking that the grass was Green ! I didn't have the heart to tell him that it was fake grass and 476 barrels of oil was needed to produce it !

Agree MrC,
The issue is not "topping-up" the SPR, as that can be done far in the future or indeed not at all.
The real issue is a reduced supply to the market of 1m bpd.
Will Russia sell ALL its oil to Asia or will they also reduce supply to the market by default ? Could see another 1m off supply there too !
US production - last news I read, it had fallen by 100k bpd and could slip further .Oil Supply is therefore likely to fall in the coming weeks.
As for demand, that seems to be going the other way. Yes, likely increases over the coming weeks. China has to unlock fully at some point. China celebrations in November, I think. Could be the catalyst.
US has much cheaper petrol encouraging more use. Outside China, Asia demand seems strong, along with demand in Africa.
I"m with Goldman Sachs, much higher prices for oil in qtr4. That would boost our share price clearly. We will see !

Emerald,production H2 is 9m barrels.
Hedged 3.7m , so 5.3m is at "live" prices.
That's pretty good !

And horrified.
What are they feeding these "Algos" about Enquest ?
It's surely not the truth !
Valuation here and now should be 1 billion +
I guess with so much cash coming in, it's only a question of a short wait before we get some of it through dividends !

Enquest average oil price realised was $89.9. In H1.
That was with more hedges. Hedges down to 3.7m for H2.

Net Debt currently down to 800m.
Debt ratio was 0.9 as of end June. Now 0.8 as of end August.
Enquest should hit their target of 0.5 at year end or in January at the latest , based on my calculation of the numbers. Great News.
We just need a "Fair and True" valuation of the company by the market.

Is a huge problem for me !
On their salaries, why would they not find a tiny £7k to buy just 100k shares ?
They should be filling their boots, if the future was bright, surely ?
Maybe they are Not interested in making money and do it all for Love !
Then you should not be a director of a company if you have no interest in making money ! ! !
A very concerned investor ?

Hi romaron,
One hump or two ?
I have been catching up here.
My only worry, short term, is that Biden extends the SPR release . He could keep the SPR release going until year end or roll over for another 6 months . Then the US mid-terms are truly covered This is my only real concern . I expect OPEC to react and cut production if needed. My belief is SA have a minimum price target of $90 oil. Putin will also need around this as a minimum due to discounting heavily his oil. This being said, an extention to SPR would still shock the market !

Aley kum Salem, Ron
Looking forward to the coming months with Enquest newsflow. Expecting some words on divis before the end of the year.
Hi KO, Yes I did wonder if I would jinx the SP when I posted. I thought about it for a second, then thought - No worries, they can all afford it !

Nice to see the valuation (share price) has moved up to the 30p level.
It was around 25p when I left good old "Blighty" mid July. Not caught up on all the posts yet as only been through the door a few hours. Great Holiday , though always nice to get home.
From what I saw in Morocco and hear about Africa. More Cars on the road than ever before ! Demand up in that Continent. Half year results next week, although I see some of the cat , was let out of the bag in August. Great Numbers. Hope to see new figures up to end of August, maybe a revised debt figure ?
Catch up soon. All the best - JAN

Everyone seems to be expecting the new mine at Kouroussa to save the day. That may or may not be the case.
My question is - What will be the AISC at Kouroussa ?
It better be below POG !
However with this lot I'm not so sure !

qtr1 AISC number was horrible ! Due to it being over $2000.
Because of this, Now I can't see the yearly target AISC being hit. Example-
If they achieve the magical/dream figure of just $1000 AISC for qtr2,3,4 thenthe AISC for the year will be $1250.
OR more likely they achieve AISC for qtr2,3,4 of $1,500 for each quarter. Then the yearly AISC will still come in at a high $1,6250. That's my target for HUM's AISC = $1,625.
The next question is POG and production ?

that the Directors are Not buying at these levels.
One would have thought that they would be buying like mad to;
1) make more money for themselves if they believed that the SP will be much higher in the future.
2) show the market that they have confidence in the business moving forward.
In my humble experience you see directors buy when their company is "cheap". No buy, No confidence = Maybe ???
IMHO

Not sure, but just seen Sky News confirm suspension and administration.