RE: Krakenoil30 Jun 2022 17:34
"you get a much clearer picture with 6 monthly updates.
AB also said We are on track, we have consistently produced over 50k so far so we are on the upper end of our guidance"
Just to carry-on from Krakenoil's post. -
So we know production is 50k for H1 and we know what the price of Oil is ! Therefore we know the revenue for H1 circa $850m - just minus half the Capex, Opex, Decom, Interest etc and I get just over 400m Profit !
Add that to the balance sheet and smoke it, Mr Market !
E121 posted today highlighting 2 reasons why we are where we are !
I agree with both, however the thought of recession and slowing world economy is the "big driver" of doubt and concern within the stock markets. This is negative sentiment is flowing down into Oil stocks as the market believes oil demand could slow in 2023 and thus POO could seriously fall too much lower levels, effecting P&L's and thus Balance Sheets of Oil companies in 2023 and beyond. This is likely to be proved as Rubbish in the coming weeks as consumers continue to spend. There are so many flight fully booked that they can't cope at the airports. In the last Day, Nike have reported growing profits along with HM the big US clothing retailer. Sales and profits are doing well, indeed bollstered by inflation encouraging higher revenues and thus profits ! We are NOT seeing meaningful demand destruction yet ! That will come later ! ! ! POO needs to hold up at around $150 or more for months. The market has got ahead of itself believing we are there now !
As Eric Nuttall said on one of his recent interviews - When it dawns on the market that OPEC is maxed out and they don't have this magical 2m spare capacity, World Oil supply in total is maxed out, however demand is still growing - Th eOil price will go Parabolic ! - I take that to mean well well over $150 for a number of panic days and then settle a little lower around $125-$150 or weeks/months.
The Real Game Has Not Started Yet Gentlemen !
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