Member Info for January24

NO, the oil in the ground is worth same. Its worth the POO.
Only the Profit after tax is reduced.

Jefff,
You miss my point !
If you have £10 in your pocket, then you are worth at least £10.

Even with 2023 production guidance, which was a little lower than I expected. We should still make a good FCF and a fair profit in 2023 with POO around $80. Reducing our debt further and thus we will add more to the NAV during 2023. I understand the rise in NAV is not linear as our assets reduce as we use our oil (reserves). However Enquest has had many "Impairments" over the last few years when POO hit rock bottom. I do not see any bad surprises here.
The worm could turn !

Just to add guys.
We only have around 4 weeks to wait to see if I am correct !
Today confirmed a large debt reduction and record fcf. However nothing was said or confirmed on the value of the business (balance sheet). If you want a serious re-valuation then you need the balance sheet.

No one has mentioned the balance sheet and the Net Asset Value (NAV) of the company (Enquest).

The market looks seriously at NAV, after all it is the total sum of your assets minus all your debt = The value of the business !
Now as of 31st December 2021 the Net Asset Value of Enquest was $520m as published. This equates to around £400m which could explain why the share price traded around 20 -30p during 2022. Pegging the SP near to NAV.

Now for 2023, we have yet to see what the NAV is. as of 31st December 2022. With a large chunk of debt paid off and over 500m in fcf for 2022, I am expecting the NAV to rise significantly ! I could see $900m+ equates to £750m+ .
Indeed as with 2022, it would seem reasonable to expect the SP to track around the NAV valuation. At £750 thats a share price of 35-40p
The market (and us) need to wait and see the balance sheet for 2022 - full year results end of March. The market must increase our valuation (share price) in-line with the increase in Net Asset Value of the business (NAV).
Hope this helps guys, its logical.

I don't think AB can buy until after results are released in March. This must be a closed period for directors.

3 disappointments for me. -
1. I expected net debt to be 60m lower.
2. Production forecast for 2023 lower than I expected by 4k bpd.
3. NO share buy backs or dividend timetable

Oh market reaction a huge disappointment!

Just to add, its last years news, but leads me to believe that production in Malaysia could have gained traction torwards the end of last year. Indeed I would not be surprised to see an increase in forecasted production for 2023.
We need a 3rd leg to our business outside the UK and Malaysia.

Not sure if this has been posted before ?
Was published on 28th January.
https://www.oedigital.com/news/493873-enquest-taps-uzma-for-offshore-well-work-in-malaysia

All the best
JAN

Your post made me laugh KO,
--- "BTF - Just love your boasting and deservedly so, you've earned a small fortune ! You should change your name to "The Wolf of Wall Street".
Sadly BTF is more like "The Sloth of Saville Row"

Lol pelle,
Yes the leak was in 2 parts.
The first pushed us up and then the second back down again.

From these low depths, a 20% rise would only just give us an SP of 25p.
A 50% rise to clear 30p - what a joke !
Trouble is I'm not laughing.

Steve,
I repeat - The US produces 12.4m bpd of Oil.
That's it !
12.4m out of the ground ! No more No less, and certainly NOT 19m bpd.
Production = Oil produced only ( not things mixed with oil , derivatives)
Consumption= Number of bpd of oil used ( again not derivatives of oil)

Steve,
If you google it - US Oil Production Latest
It will say 12.3m However I read they hit 12.4m
Really not sure where your 19m comes from.

Check your figures Steve,
US produced 12.4m bpd oil. Last data release.
Are you including Natural Gas ? Or finished product gasoline ? Or Moon Shine maybe ?

Spot on , KO
The US are net importers of oil.
As are China, India and Europe.

Just to add -
Looks like he does not plan to refill the US spr anytime soon.
Biden does not seem bothered about the low level of US spr. However the market may !

Hi KO,
Yes, just found the article.
Looks like Biden is doing this during the lead up to US driving season. I guess he thinks this will ensure petrol prices are keeper under control and are reasonable during the US driving season.
However to me this move confirms that supply will be very tight as demand moves higher. It also shows me that Biden was expecting POO to climb. The market may see this as desperation, let's see.
As small fall in POO on the announcement but now coming back over $86 again.

21.95p
lets see what next week brings !
RNS should be out next week. Poss Thursday,
What will the close be next Friday ???

I posted the one off 10p dividend a bit " tongue in cheek". However many many companies have done this. Maybe if share buybacks and regular dividends will not come until 2024 , then a sweetener extoadanary one off dividend could be paid in 2023. It would have to be 5p + ( cost 100m) 10p (200m)

Extraordinary dividend of 10p would go down well !