Member Info for January24

Sadly our best hope as investors (and a selfish hope) is that POO goes back to $130 and stays there for the medium term !
This is actually a possibility.

Welcome back,
Hobione and Makesomemoney. Seems the "boys are coming home".
Always a good sign !
You know when things are looking up , when you start to see new investors coming on board !

Well, I do hope it's the "big toe" as the others are hardly worth it !

Pelle,
Thanks for the support. AB is the same age as me. I got his age at 60 years (as I am) . I think he may have a little more cash than I have. You are right about further development needing another 5-10 year runway. That would take him to 70 years.
No doubt he has a life plan for himself. My guess would be his plan is to work part time for his charitable foundation over-seeing spending and projects. This is a really kind and generous thing to do in your latter years. Giving back ! My wife is a Muslim (as is AB) and she tells me that this is what she would do if she was in his position. To help other human beings is a really great thing to do whatever religion . My gut tells me that is his plan . As for Enquest, the timing seems right now to look for the door ! IMHO

Just to add -
if I'm correct about Enquest being sold, then we won't see dividends or share buybacks.
If you were planning a sale or even discussing it with interested parties , you would not then start a dividend or share buyback program wouldnt you ? No you would leave all that to the new owners .
Therefore if AB announces dividends or buybacks next week, then I am wrong, however if he says nothing or gives the standard statement that we will look at it in the future, then I will think that I'm right about a sale !

I seriously believe that the world is blindly walking into a serious oil shortage. When will this be ?
I think it's only a few years away , maybe less, we're getting close !
Watch the panic when the penny drops as the people and governments realise it.
The Oil Price will see new highs and this time the price will not fall back. It will stay high!
However I believe Enquest will be sold this year, so it won't matter to us . Circa 40p.

I think AB will get totally involved in his charity work. That seemed to always be the plan, hence the large fund/share holding of his charitable trust. He will oversee the trusts projects etc.

You forget Sullom Voe.
A nice terminal that could be used for many green things (carbon capture)
Would get Harbour a slice of the new world !
They have to do something or they will pay 75% tax soon.
They would get Malaysia too, non UK
Anyway my no1 choice Harbour.
No.2 is BP , who reverse direction and decide to do something big with Solom Voe and don't want a small operator
In the way. Plus they get the tax credits too.

ENQ will sell for 800m or 40p my forecast ! !

Our tax credits based on previous losses are around 2 billion. They will shield us from the 40% tax for a few years..
They are worth $800m to someone working the UK North Sea and wanting to save on tax.
What UK operator is large enough to buy us and will need shielding from the 40% tax soon. = Harbour. (HBR)
From memory Harbour have only 1 year of tax credits left. The Lion share of their production is NS. They can't change that anytime soon. So their only other option is too shield themselves from UK tax.
I believe that they will BUY Enquest that way gaining 2B tax credits and Malaysia production.
AB must have had enough after 13 years here surely ?
Yep, my bet we are sold this year !

The conversation behind closed doors will be the government speaking "off the record", and telling the oil and gas industry that they hear what it is saying and they will make changes, however Timing is the key (their cop-out for doing nothing now).
Sorry guys, some of you are wrong , Nothing will happen anytime soon on EPL. Don't be fooled by the political bull talk.
Their plans are to use and milk the O&G industry over the next decade. They will expand and invest in renewables, wind, solar etc. Whose percentage share of UK energy will continue to rise.
I think the West (US, UK and Europe) is going to cause a massive oil shortage in 3-5 years time. The worst the world has ever seen. As history tells us, countries will fight/go to war over oil.

I have always thought NO change to EPL until the Autumn, at the earliest. Even then with a UK election in 2024 they may wait until after that. Sad but they are more worried about how they are seen by the public than doing the right thing for the UK economy.
The EPL wax introduced with little attention to the detail ( no floor etc ) and no thought on how it would affect UK oil production going forward ( raising capitol , investment etc).
Now it's over to AB - let's see what he can do !
I would now switch investment out of the UK.

Hi Dumbly,
Yes I think we will have a higher net profit figure than a company 5x our size (HBR).

That the "Ducks are lining up nicely ".
- Brent seems to have bottomed and is now stepping up to the next level.
- Driving season and China will increase oil demand in the coming months.
- Oil supply is pretty much 'capped" at todays levels. No room for increase.
- Enquest 2022 results will be very very profitable.
- EPL may get a floor price.
- Enquest 2023 numbers could be a whole lot better than we have been thinking

Hi Stumpy,
I can't see us falling any further with no positive news Stumpy.
Surely our SP today and last week is based on the current EPL and profit valuation based on it ! , so if EPL continues as is, with no change then surely no change to valuation (sp)

Hope you are wrong Oxygen, however I truly share your concerns.
They certainly won't remove it, as it's like saying you were wrong in the first place. The best I can see or hope for is a floor.
Even this just feels too early for them to instigate now. I live in hope though!

With regard to positive changes to EPL;
I guess the market has taken the view that " it will believe it, when it sees it"

Lol. Even the market does not trust the government to do the sensible thing.

Evening KO.
I'm sure the algo's will pick up the news and thus we will see a rally. Expecting 20p+ to be hit before Thursdays announcments. If the news is as expected or even better then I see a continuation of the rally following Thursday. The rate of rally dependent on the detail and floor level.
With our results out early April, we could see 30p during April.
All assuming no great fall in Brent POO.

Well, if a EPL floor is to be set, I guess we will see a que for shares on the market open Monday !
KO timed it well, buying a top up yesterday. Well done KO.
Not many chances to see a climb in the SP before the event so looks like I'll be digging down the sofa for change, to do a small top up Monday !
See if I can get my order in before BTFATH1, i'm sure he will be queing looking for profit !
Maybe a family day out to the Zoo to meet our dear leaders !
Kim Yung Sunak - prime minister
Ding Dang Hunt - Chancer

Lol. Let's not get too excited guys !
I have lost faith in our government. I will believe it when I see it !
Even if it happens I will be looking at the detail. Like when will it start ?
Jan 2024 ? What floor price for EPL, same as Russian cap $60 maybe ?
I don't trust them to do the right thing.

Hi romaron,
I agree with you, the debate was sensible, realistic and the best "grown-up" debate parliament has had on this subject.
My problem is not the content or quality of the debate.
My problem is simply that I do not believe Hunt is prepared to listen or make changes at this time ! Hunt has to be convinced. I do not think he is. No benefit in preaching to the converted.
ATB
jan