Member Info for January24

KO,

We need to see demand growth in the coming weeks. That is the key !

World production seems pretty stable and looks like it will be for the remainder of 2023. I can't see much change in production levels for 2024 either !. It maybe slightly lower than 2023.

I think it will be 2025 before we see any significant fall in world production.

world oil Demand levels are the key !

To get POO back over $80 we need confirmation that 102 - 103 + million bpd is the actual demand level being used.

For 2024 105m + should ensure we have a decent supply deficit.

If we see world recession of any significance then I could see the EPL floor "kick-in" during 2024.

Fingers crossed for bullish oil demand !

Came pretty close to it around 3.30pm today. @ $71.70

Guys,

I disagree with the expectation that a RNS will be issued on a restart. I do not think that an RNS will be issued at all.

Enquest did not issue any RNS regarding the shut-in , so why would they issue one on a restart ?

Just done some number crunching.

Now it was reported at the AGM that AB stated that our break even is $58.

Therefore at 70 oil we make 12 profit.

At 80 with 35% tax we basically make the same.

22 minus EPL at 35% - 8 = 14

So it doesn't really matter 70 to 80 oil price, more or less same profit.

Sky News reported half an hour ago it was 71.40

Now, this is a strategy to adopt.

Next time , When oil spikes to around 100 . Some are saying that this will happen later in the year.

We hedge the lot at these prices 90+. Then if oil went down to sub 70 we would have NO windfall tax because the oil price was under 71.40, however the price we would get due to hedges would be 90+ AND NO windfall tax would be payable. Lol

Problem KO,

They have done what my children used to do. They have spent the windfall tax money before they have got it !

Now they need to collect the tax.

I think that they believe oil will not average below 71.40 for 2 quarters, so they can keep collecting the tax.

I guess it's better than nothing!

Martinet,

The 20 year average was mentioned in the Reuters article last night. From a government source.

I believe that the 71.40 is the average price of oil over the last 20 years. That's how they got to that figure.

KO I think that it's the average price of oil for the month, ignoring spikes that last a few days or week.

Reuters also reporting windfall tax ammendments tomorrow. Consultations happening in the morning. My guess announcement will come around lunchtime or just after.

I think the floor will be somewhere in the 70's. I assume its based on Brent oil prices ?

I also assume the tax is only paid on profits above the floor ? Could get very complicated !

The biggest benefit is that the banks can now lend again to the UK oil producers, like us.

Should be the last chance for these thieves to get our shares so cheap.

Lol Stupmy,

You spoke to soon, we are back in the red !

From the last operational update covering 2023. Total production was 47k bpd.

Kraken accounted for just under 16k of that total.

Which means we have been achieving around 31k bpd from our other assets since kraken was shut in on 30th May.

Stuart Pearce is a bit to old for that now, romaron.

Harry Kane would be the best choice to take the penalty !

Himmatsj,

Waldorf apparently have insurance to offset production loss due to shutdown. So Enquest could too, however my guess is that they have some form of cover in their contract with Bumi.

I would assume Bumi will have to foot the costs as it is their FSPO. We just lease it.

Correction- "I think we have 2 things"........

Apologise, at my age its hard to read these tiny words on my phone

Himmatsj,

I think we 2 things that lead us to believe that we have NO cause for concern !

1) So we were told yesterday, AB was asked the question at the AGM. His answer apparently was that Enquest's production guidance would not be affected by this issue.

2) There has been NO rns released confirming a material change in production. Enquest would have to do this legally if this was the case.

Maybe it's time to move on to other topics ?

I think we have flogged this one to death.

I have just sorted the Kraken transformer problem.

Just Been up in the Loft. Disconnected my old Scalextric Transformer and posted it off to Enquest.

Should do the trick !

MitoeCPS,

Apologies if I came across as a little aggressive. Frustration got the better of me. Sorry for that.

I'll re post KO's quote from the AGM,

"Ian wood said they will be restarting the Armada towards the end of the week, AB also said it wouldn’t impact our production forecasts for this year, they also stated it would financially impact Bumi as we don’t pay them when the FSPO is off line."

This concern all came about due to comments/quotes from Bumi. They are playing politics and trying to manage their loss of earnings as they have a certain revenue loss. The question is - How Big ?

What is in the contract with Enquest ? Do they have to compensate us for loss of production/earnings ? We had a dispute with Bumi a few years back regarding the FSPO (which from memory cost them millions due to late delivery) and they know what is in the small print of the contract. We don't !

I take comfort in both statements from Waldorf and Enquest on this outage. Bumi are the ones "running scared ". I am sure if we could read the contract then we would understand why !

MrC ,

Yes I am really making it seem too easy, I know.

However some guys on here are saying 6-12 months when we know from the AGM it is beeing fired-up at the end of this week !

I am doing what they are doing . Only at the other end of the spectrum !

It shut down on the 30th May . It is being restarted at end of this week, say Sunday 11th June -

That's No production for 12 days. - Not bloody 6 months ! ! !

Know I understand it will not likely be running production at 100% from day 1 .

Why say stuff like that ?