Member Info for January24

Looking back ;

2022 production at half year was 49,726 boepd giving a revenue of $943m with EBITDA of $536m and thus fcf of $332m .

Now 2023;

production up until the end of April was 47,725 boepd , first four months. The last 2 months will include some of the Kraken reduced production due to the Transformer issue and maintenance shut down.

It seems obvious to me that production levels will be Down on 2022 and Qtr1 2023 . Maybe around 45,000 boepd at end of June (H1). Enquest have said it is still within 2023 guidance. (42k to 46k)

How will the market view this ?

Enquest had a realised POO of $89 in H1 2022. This too will be down this year. I guess around $80 (10% less).

Therefore Revenue will also be down on 2022. I get 45k bpd x days x $80 poo = $651m

EBITDA around $350m -

fcf maybe $100m - $150m - All Well Down On 2022

Has the market priced all this in ? Maybe it has priced it in too negatively !

If so we could see a rise in valuation and share price when H1 results come out in early September.

If the market has NOT priced this in, then maybe we will see the valuation fall !

My advice to BTFATH1 is - " A golf club in the hand is worth two in the bush".

Do you feel lucky ?

BTFATH1,

Thank you for your confession my son.

You are forgiven my son.

Money is the root of all evil.

Stop this greedy trading and don't do it again my child.

Then all will be forgiven

Hi KO,

Yes you're right, No sense at all .

Record EIA crude draw and oil falls ! crazy.

The only thing I could see is it could just be a healthy "pull-back". I looked and saw that Brent POO has climbed up from$74 only a month ago to almost $86 in the last 24 hours. As we know on the technical side, pull backs are normal !

I am NOT concerned yet ! A move back below $80 would worry me though.

All the best

JAN

Further thoughts.

In the early days AB purchased millions and millions of shares priced over £1 per share . Now in 2023 I would guess his average price per share has come down to somewhere around the 40p mark.

This has got to be the minimum selling price per share for AB. In a different environment Linda (HBR) mite pay this and more. I would love her to make an offer of 40p, however I can't see it !

AB has got to want 40p or more, how will he get it ? What's his exit plan ?

What would you do if you were him holding so many shares ?

A very high one off special dividend then regular dividends ongoing, maybe. Who else could buy us ?

Sekforde your numbers make sense however there is politics at play here.

Dumbly is correct. Linda Cooke at HBR has "painted herself in a corner politically ". After all she has stated publicly she can't keep credibility if she went ahead with investments in the UK North Sea in the current EPL form. She would need a "way out". Only really positive changes (removal) to the EPL /taxes can do that !

Just my views ,only.

As we believe POO is likely to rise in the coming months (maybe $90 or more), this makes it even more unlikely that we will see the EPL removed before the next UK general election, late 2024.

My bet is we will see dividends and share buy backs before the removal of the EPL.

True, but would open the door in Malaysia for HBR (International) and make the North Sea more profitable for HBR

My guess is it will be launched in 2024 and will be around 2p to 5p level.

Welcome JAdams5000,

I think we will get a further large rise in our share price when we get time line confirmation of share dividend payments.

All the best,

JAN

I think Therapist just gave it !

Lol,

slugs.

Question and request for you - BleepyBoo.

Please please can you mention Slugs in your 14th post on LSE too !

Wow, what intellect !

I guess the clue is in the name - "BleepyBoo"

Not surprising you get comments like that then. Must have taken her a good hour to come up with that one !

Five knuckle Shuffle along then Terry, my boy !

No point wasting your valuable time here then Terry. As you say we are a lost cause - bye bye !

Looking at history, the next update could be a trading update very early in August. We had one last year, but not the year before, so it's not a certainty that we get one this year.

After that we have H1 results early September. When this arrives we will have a excellent idea on how 2023 is shaping up !

I have 3 main worries.

1) our production levels against guidance. We have heard that Kraken is producing 60% of normal levels due to recent transformer issues. I do hope that we can return to 100% quickly. We hopefully can maintain production levels at the upper end of guidance. No maintenance shut down needed during QTR3 now.

2) our fcf levels that we need to achieve to meet our debt payment commitments in H2.

3) the price of oil. We are assuming our real break even is around $60. We can't afford to see the price of oil go under $70 and stay there for the remainder of 2023.

Like many I have no choice but to sit this out, or take a 6 figure loss. Not a great place to be !

Fingers crossed for some AB magic !

Frac,

Excellent posts, totally agree with you. I remember thinking years ago that the tobacco company's were going to be "toast" in a few years . Why would anyone invest in them ?

However they are now the "vape" kings and still sell tobacco too !

Agree with you on oil companies being the green companies in the future !

With inflation so high and the fact that employers are having to give substantial annual salary increases, the "all-in" cost per barrel must have substantially increased for 2023.

Yet the price of oil has fallen substantially!

Economics tells me that this cannot continue. Oil producers have little or no profit to invest in new production. Therefore world oil production must decline and keep declining for sometime, surely !

Let's hope we can see reality Dawn and eventually get our investment into a healthy profit

Maluku,

Thanks for your post. Very kind of you to pass this news on to everyone here.

Dumbly,

My money would be "on" a deal/MA is being discussed behind the scenes now.

That would explain why there is not any Directors buying.

Hopefully we will hear something soon on this front !

Thanks himmats,

Very sensitive discussion, therefore we all need to careful how and what we post.

Thank you again for your honesty.

JAN

Himmatsj,

You and MitoeCPS are posting some very interesting information.

I would kindly ask you to clarify 2 things for me;

1) You just posted this - "My source just confirmed that all the other 3 HSPs are "beyond repair". I'm asking him if they are beyond replacement as well." -

Now surely if something is beyond repair then the only other option is too replace it ? Yes ! If as you say it is beyond repair and beyond replacement then what are you saying ???? We use something else ? We abandon the Kraken and leave it to the seagulls ?

2) Your Source - Is he or she working actually on Kraken ? if not is it "hearsay" or industry chatter ! What percentage of trust/accuracy would you give 60% , 80% Please confirm ?

I have heard this one about "sources" around 10 times over my many years of investing. Only 2 times was the source information actually correct and accurate !

Thank you for your reply.

JAN

Just to add, my understanding is that world production is sitting just UNDER the 100m bpd level