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Well as was said in the opening - " really nothing new to report, since the last updates" -
Maybe they should have added, that they had been relaxing and enjoying some well earned R&R. Plus been busy with some long lunches and evening meals. Or Family Time of year so not done much work !
These I just my thoughts on reading the rns.
ATB
Not much gold here bonker, just lots of old rocks - yet to be processed !
I know why they are not profitable !
Look we know the level of gold has gone down to about 1g per ton of old rocks. Then just maybe the reason that costs have gone up is that the person looking for this small 1g is just not looking properly ! ! ! they are just missing this tiny 1g of gold as it flashes by on the conveyor belt . lol . That's why we are left with high costs because most of the gold has been chucked out with the rubbish ! - the cleaners are rich ! I should by shares in a cleaning business.
Hi Dumbly,
I think Rishi Sunak was directing his comments to the likes of BP. What we do is not going to effect his decision. Basically the actions of the big players will decide what happens with regard to windfall taxes.
On a humerous point - Now I could upset L7 with this, but hey ho, here goes. Please check out my post on the ENOG board. I have trolled romaron, Please feel free to "recommend post" over there. TX
As Colonel George Armstrong Custer would say -
" romaron, you are on your own there chap ."
"Yet another big drop" -
The market has just been told that HUM have been losing money !
Their cost per oz is higher than what they get for selling it. That is why the SP is falling, and I see nothing to stop this !
Why ? - because based on the last RNS, every day the company is worth a little less due to lost cash !
When the company release news that show the company has stopped losing money on every oz that they sell , then the SP should stop falling.
QTR2 results need to be good ! Just over a year away from production begining at the new mine. The bod need to show that they can successfully manage problems at one mine before they take on a second ! The jury is out for me. I am less positive hear than I was and therefore sold out my small holding. Will watch from the sidelines, as the next few months will be key for HUM .
Swampy,
HUM are top place in the "fallers List" for today. Bigest faller on ftse. Lots of exposure for HUM for would be traders.
When that happens you get P.I's buying trying to scalp a bit of profit on a bounce, in a day or so. These guys Don 't have the knowledge that you LTH's have. Sometimes they win , sometimes they don't. This accounts for some of the buys today.
Other buyers are likely to be investors looking to the future who feel today's share price is good value to either buy-in or top up.
The sellers have either had enough and are out ! Or are selling with a view to buy back later as they are expecting further falls over the coming weeks . This enables them to lower their average or gain more shares. They get the opposite if they get it wrong though !
Bonker, did you hold or are you out for a lower re-entry later ?
Yep, expecting production sub 20 but not as low as 15.
2021 results RNS due out end of May. Can't see this being good reading either, so I guess that the SP will drift lower over the coming weeks and maybe bottom around end May/June time. Could go down to previous low circa 10p for a double bottom, and then rise from there. All IMHO of course.
Thank you for your figures.
My original point was that 75% of production had to be hedged which you confirmed - My initial point also was that there is restricted revenue possibilities by these hedges. Sold calls being $76 while POO is well over $100.
Now Your point was that there is considerable (45% exposure to the upside). That may be the case, however your revenue is still limited by the collars which you have in place. Which added to the high interest payable on the bond (10.5%) was the two reasons I gave in my original post as to why the SP seems stuck at the 60p level. If this is crap then tell me why that you think the SP is bogged down when piers like HBR, ENQ have risen considerably more this year ?
Show me the 45% that you stated -
show me the maths clown - stop trying to deflect from your silly number - 45% show me the maths - you can't can you ? it's bull !
Just to prove I was right !
I said 75%.
If you take the bottom of guidance given by TLW which is 55k you get
42.5 divide into 55k = 77% hedged (without the 5k )
FFS deeko,
Maybe you should read the RNS'S and learn to count - However let me do it for you - and the maths !
RNS 26th JAN 2022
TLW Production Guidance for 2022 = 55 - 61 k (plus another 5k when deal done)
Hedged for 2022 = 42.5k ( figures in rns)
So taking top guidance figure of 66k which includes the new 5k gives you a figure of 64.4% hedged for 2022
or taking the bottom figure of 60k which also includes the new 5k gives you a figure of 70.8% hedged - ouch !
NOW wooden head show me the maths on your silly 45% NOT hedged comment, come on show us on here your maths ! ! !
45% Not hedged . lol
I know, Maybe the share price here is anchored because the Algo's don't like you ! or perhaps it's because Tullow starts with the letter T.
Posters who critisize others Maths and research and then obviously lie about their numbers deserve to lose money in my book ! Finally I will not waste any more of my time responding further to you !
Interesting views here.
I also believe TLW will have it's day. But not yet !
My thoughts are sometime in 2023. Here's why.
For 2022 Tullow have 75% production hedged at terrible prices, which mean only 25% is exposed to these $100+ prices. Therefore 2022 revenue is pretty much caped along with FCF for this year, therefore restricting debt repayments. Thus for 2022 some debt repayment but NO "big chunks" taken off the huge debt pile. This can't happen until next year.
In addition TLW are paying a whopping 10.5% interest on their refinanced bond. Not surprising the market can't seem to value this above 60p. I don't see this changing until 2023. I can't even $150 oil moving this to £1.00. Why would it ? TLW would get a limited benifit! Maybe 70-80p.
For 2023, even then 50% of TLW productionmust be hedged according to loan terms. However assuming oil prices stay high it should be at a much better rate. As CFO at Enquest JS did a great job on steering ENQ through the bad years. Indeed ENQ remained intact while Others suffered much more. I believe JS will be good for TLW and will help get the value back for shareholders. For 2022, I see limited downside risk here, but also limited upside too ! This star will not begin to shine until 2023. IMHO..... ATB
Hi londoner7,
Thank you for your reply.
With regard to Bonds, I am grateful to you and others here for input on how this may play out over the coming months.
As for FCF, if I deduct the Kraken fspo lease, BP and Malaysia payment, then I get 650m . So I am assume that your fcf figure is around 650m ? However if you have lower figures than me on the other elements that I listed then your fcf figure will be higher than 650m.
Should see net debt fall to circa 400m at year end , providing AB does not go shopping before then !
ATB
JAN
Lot of resistance at this level KO.
You need to back to JAN 2017 to get the SP above this 35/37p level. Many peaks from early 2017 around this 35p/37p mark. I think we need to hold around here a bit to break this. A close on 38p or above should send us straight up to 40p+.
My view is it will happen in May , when focus is on summer demand ! ATB
Just to add, I will be pleased to see production hold at 50k or above.
Brent POO average for the year is $100.3
So that gives us $5m per day revenue , and just over $2m FCF per day by my numbers.
ENQ are a cash cow ! lol Sadly the wife only has one of those qualities, and it's not the cash bit !
Sometimes we don't like what people say, however we should not be rude to people who have different views - otherwise it says more about you !
Aldebaran is right if you look at the cash burn and what cash they have available - if things carry on "as it is" then they will run out of cash !
TO stop this they need to close a good deal that gives them a lump of cash ! end of ..... or dilution is likely !
time will tell - place your bets or withdraw - your choice.
Swanton,
You are right. Qtr4 was 18k. I was wrong on my 18k qtr1 guys, sorry.
However they stated 2022 guidance which equates to circa 22 to 24oz per qtr. They also stated that qtr1 would be the lowest and ramp up for the remainder of 2022. So they are expecting below much below 22k for qtr1. So in theory it still could be 18k, however I WAS WRONG they did not state 18k for qtr1. Got to be honest if you are wrong.
True darren123,
They could beat the 18k and come in with 20k or more. All possible. If they do then the market should take that as a positive.
However I can only go and forecast on what the company says and not what you say or wish for.