Member Info for January2

Interesting views here.
I also believe TLW will have it's day. But not yet !
My thoughts are sometime in 2023. Here's why.
For 2022 Tullow have 75% production hedged at terrible prices, which mean only 25% is exposed to these $100+ prices. Therefore 2022 revenue is pretty much caped along with FCF for this year, therefore restricting debt repayments. Thus for 2022 some debt repayment but NO "big chunks" taken off the huge debt pile. This can't happen until next year.
In addition TLW are paying a whopping 10.5% interest on their refinanced bond. Not surprising the market can't seem to value this above 60p. I don't see this changing until 2023. I can't even $150 oil moving this to £1.00. Why would it ? TLW would get a limited benifit! Maybe 70-80p.
For 2023, even then 50% of TLW productionmust be hedged according to loan terms. However assuming oil prices stay high it should be at a much better rate. As CFO at Enquest JS did a great job on steering ENQ through the bad years. Indeed ENQ remained intact while Others suffered much more. I believe JS will be good for TLW and will help get the value back for shareholders. For 2022, I see limited downside risk here, but also limited upside too ! This star will not begin to shine until 2023. IMHO..... ATB

Hi londoner7,
Thank you for your reply.
With regard to Bonds, I am grateful to you and others here for input on how this may play out over the coming months.
As for FCF, if I deduct the Kraken fspo lease, BP and Malaysia payment, then I get 650m . So I am assume that your fcf figure is around 650m ? However if you have lower figures than me on the other elements that I listed then your fcf figure will be higher than 650m.
Should see net debt fall to circa 400m at year end , providing AB does not go shopping before then !
ATB
JAN

Lot of resistance at this level KO.
You need to back to JAN 2017 to get the SP above this 35/37p level. Many peaks from early 2017 around this 35p/37p mark. I think we need to hold around here a bit to break this. A close on 38p or above should send us straight up to 40p+.
My view is it will happen in May , when focus is on summer demand ! ATB

Just to add, I will be pleased to see production hold at 50k or above.
Brent POO average for the year is $100.3
So that gives us $5m per day revenue , and just over $2m FCF per day by my numbers.
ENQ are a cash cow ! lol Sadly the wife only has one of those qualities, and it's not the cash bit !

Operational update due in May.
last year released on 12th May. Previous year was 21st May.
So in a few weeks we should no more !

Sometimes we don't like what people say, however we should not be rude to people who have different views - otherwise it says more about you !
Aldebaran is right if you look at the cash burn and what cash they have available - if things carry on "as it is" then they will run out of cash !
TO stop this they need to close a good deal that gives them a lump of cash ! end of ..... or dilution is likely !
time will tell - place your bets or withdraw - your choice.

Swanton,
You are right. Qtr4 was 18k. I was wrong on my 18k qtr1 guys, sorry.
However they stated 2022 guidance which equates to circa 22 to 24oz per qtr. They also stated that qtr1 would be the lowest and ramp up for the remainder of 2022. So they are expecting below much below 22k for qtr1. So in theory it still could be 18k, however I WAS WRONG they did not state 18k for qtr1. Got to be honest if you are wrong.

True darren123,
They could beat the 18k and come in with 20k or more. All possible. If they do then the market should take that as a positive.
However I can only go and forecast on what the company says and not what you say or wish for.

anon,
You need to go back and read previous RNS 's.
From my memory ( I am nearly 60) and please do go and check it yourself. HUM forecast for 2022 saying weakest production will be QTR1 and they gave 18k oz as a figure. They explained due to new equipment which will improve production for remainder of 2022. However 18k oz is rubbish as you call it, anon.
The question is how will the market react ?

Hi romaron,
I think HBR could be a little risky !
First it has a Market Cap of £4.8 billion - it's production is only around 4x Enquest, Yet it is valued at 7x ENQ.
Yes there may be an upside, However there also may be a long way to fall in the SP (MC) too !
Large Cap , due to exposure to Russian oil markets (Shell,BP) I would go outside the UK and opt for Exon Mobil in the US.
Mid Tier, I do believe we are the best ! ! !
Growth Stock 1 to 2 years time could be Tullow if they can get their debt down . Our Mr J. Sweeney could help them with that. I see Tullow as 1 to 2 years behind us. If POO holds and they can shake off their terrible hedges (75% production) . Pay down debt they should do very well.
Dividends - I like GKP ( Gulf Keystone Petroleum ) Huge dividends , but risky in where they are and thus getting paid. Guess Exon Mobil the safest for divi's though.
Just a few ramblings, ATB
JUAN

Not so sure !
The US is part way through Qtr1 earning season and so far earnings overall are OK to Good. Indeed US stocks have done rather well this week.
Maybe Netflix is a one off - they are not offering what the customer wants. I pay 6.99 per month for my Netflix subscription, which I will be stopping. We just have moved on to other things. They have not evolved.
Becareful to look at the whole picture and not just one small piece. I think you will see a stock market Rally going into summer.

Hi CJ66,
Good to see that you are still around.
I plotted the factory locations in Ukraine and noticed that they are West of Kviv. That being the case then there is a good chance that the Russians never got to them to "trash rhe facilities". Maybe then the factories could be up scale production relatively easy. The problem may be people/workers. Many have left Ukraine. Do they have the workers available to run the business and who will they sell too ? The next update will be key.
All the best,
JAN

Problem -
They spent over 8m in 2021 and had 10m left in cash.
At that burn rate the cash will last until the end of 2022 approx. They need deals and revenue fast OR in my opinion we will see "dilution of shares" to raise more funds/cash. The clocks ticking and the time is disappearing.

I would say at around 50p.

Hi whiteace,
I see Brent has been busy too.
It's up over $4 from the close before Easter. Should see us touch 38p this week !

"using POO annual average of $85" -

Should read annual average maintained at 100.3 , which is the current 3 month average for 2022 (jan to mar inclusive)

All other numbers typed correctly !

I have just updated my numbers -
I have production Figures @ 50k bpd = 18.25 mbls (within Enquest guidance)

8.60 mbls @ $78 = 670 mil (actual hedged data Enquest)
9.65 mbls @ $100.3 = 968 mil (using POO annual average of $85 - brent average actual Jan 86.52 Feb 97.13 March 117.25)

Revenue Total = 1,638 mil

Opex = 430 mil
Capex = 165 mil
Interest = 100 mil
Decom = 75 mil
Other = 50 mil

TOTAL = $820 mil

Free Cash Flow = $1,638 mil - 820 mil = 818 million
YES 818m FCF

Should leave net debt UNDER $300 mil by Xmas 2022. IMHO and my numbers DYOR.
Just being valued at 1 year FCF gives you 41p share price
- I think we will hit our 60p party before 2022 is out !

Guys am I right saying that the divi is 23p ?
As with normal divi stocks are you then expecting a 23p fall in the SP immediately when this goes past ex-divi date ?
Anyone know when the next divi is due after this one ?

Hi L3 Trader,
Good to hear from you.
I think that the US fed increases have been "baked in" by the market. Indeed QTR1 earning season should be Good/OK. Therefore I am wondering if the market does the opposite to what many expect and "Rally's" on up from here !
Not expecting "new all time highs", in the S&P , but one or two legs higher - before the markets turn down for it's true "bear market" later in 2022. Stagflation then recession ? IMHO
I hope I have a chance to buy much more here at around the 15p level in the next few weeks. We shall see.
ATB - JAN
Just my thoughts, but expecting POG to touch $2k and then fall back as the markets rally for a few months.

Bushy,
I am positive here too.
Mind you HUM need to get their costs down to make 600 per oz. or POG needs to go to 2,200 per oz.
Not happy with 2021 costs and with higher energy costs for 2022 they will have to show much better cost control to keep a lid on this !