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anon,
You need to go back and read previous RNS 's.
From my memory ( I am nearly 60) and please do go and check it yourself. HUM forecast for 2022 saying weakest production will be QTR1 and they gave 18k oz as a figure. They explained due to new equipment which will improve production for remainder of 2022. However 18k oz is rubbish as you call it, anon.
The question is how will the market react ?
Hi romaron,
I think HBR could be a little risky !
First it has a Market Cap of £4.8 billion - it's production is only around 4x Enquest, Yet it is valued at 7x ENQ.
Yes there may be an upside, However there also may be a long way to fall in the SP (MC) too !
Large Cap , due to exposure to Russian oil markets (Shell,BP) I would go outside the UK and opt for Exon Mobil in the US.
Mid Tier, I do believe we are the best ! ! !
Growth Stock 1 to 2 years time could be Tullow if they can get their debt down . Our Mr J. Sweeney could help them with that. I see Tullow as 1 to 2 years behind us. If POO holds and they can shake off their terrible hedges (75% production) . Pay down debt they should do very well.
Dividends - I like GKP ( Gulf Keystone Petroleum ) Huge dividends , but risky in where they are and thus getting paid. Guess Exon Mobil the safest for divi's though.
Just a few ramblings, ATB
JUAN
Not so sure !
The US is part way through Qtr1 earning season and so far earnings overall are OK to Good. Indeed US stocks have done rather well this week.
Maybe Netflix is a one off - they are not offering what the customer wants. I pay 6.99 per month for my Netflix subscription, which I will be stopping. We just have moved on to other things. They have not evolved.
Becareful to look at the whole picture and not just one small piece. I think you will see a stock market Rally going into summer.
Hi CJ66,
Good to see that you are still around.
I plotted the factory locations in Ukraine and noticed that they are West of Kviv. That being the case then there is a good chance that the Russians never got to them to "trash rhe facilities". Maybe then the factories could be up scale production relatively easy. The problem may be people/workers. Many have left Ukraine. Do they have the workers available to run the business and who will they sell too ? The next update will be key.
All the best,
JAN
Problem -
They spent over 8m in 2021 and had 10m left in cash.
At that burn rate the cash will last until the end of 2022 approx. They need deals and revenue fast OR in my opinion we will see "dilution of shares" to raise more funds/cash. The clocks ticking and the time is disappearing.
I have just updated my numbers -
I have production Figures @ 50k bpd = 18.25 mbls (within Enquest guidance)
8.60 mbls @ $78 = 670 mil (actual hedged data Enquest)
9.65 mbls @ $100.3 = 968 mil (using POO annual average of $85 - brent average actual Jan 86.52 Feb 97.13 March 117.25)
Revenue Total = 1,638 mil
Opex = 430 mil
Capex = 165 mil
Interest = 100 mil
Decom = 75 mil
Other = 50 mil
TOTAL = $820 mil
Free Cash Flow = $1,638 mil - 820 mil = 818 million
YES 818m FCF
Should leave net debt UNDER $300 mil by Xmas 2022. IMHO and my numbers DYOR.
Just being valued at 1 year FCF gives you 41p share price
- I think we will hit our 60p party before 2022 is out !
Guys am I right saying that the divi is 23p ?
As with normal divi stocks are you then expecting a 23p fall in the SP immediately when this goes past ex-divi date ?
Anyone know when the next divi is due after this one ?
Hi L3 Trader,
Good to hear from you.
I think that the US fed increases have been "baked in" by the market. Indeed QTR1 earning season should be Good/OK. Therefore I am wondering if the market does the opposite to what many expect and "Rally's" on up from here !
Not expecting "new all time highs", in the S&P , but one or two legs higher - before the markets turn down for it's true "bear market" later in 2022. Stagflation then recession ? IMHO
I hope I have a chance to buy much more here at around the 15p level in the next few weeks. We shall see.
ATB - JAN
Just my thoughts, but expecting POG to touch $2k and then fall back as the markets rally for a few months.
Bushy,
I am positive here too.
Mind you HUM need to get their costs down to make 600 per oz. or POG needs to go to 2,200 per oz.
Not happy with 2021 costs and with higher energy costs for 2022 they will have to show much better cost control to keep a lid on this !
Guys, You Will Thank me for posting this beauty -
YOU must see this for great analytical research and forecasting on how the oil market will develop for the future !
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6bfddBRDxXw
Happy Easter
JAN
Bushy,
Being positive is one thing but just spouting numbers is silly. Let's look at what you just said.
"£3 share price"
Now Bushy that equates to a market cap of £1.2 billion. This is greater valuation than Centamin (CEY) yet they produce double what HUM would. Centamin produce over 400k + yet would be worth less than HUM. I don't think so !
Now you made yourself look silly - keep it real.
Maybe 500 - 600m market cap which equates £1.50 - half of CEY, as HUM production would be half. Oh and CEY pay a juicy 8% dividend. HUM would have to do that too ! Without it you could not get close to relative par.
JAN
Crikey,
Look at northernmonkey at 28.5p.
To much Monkey juice when he made that forecast !
And Hitman had 39p but sold out before we got there.
Pelle with his 49.99 must think that he was in a clothes shop and buying a shirt at £49.99, another one confused. Finally the Therapist trying to play with my head by mixing up numbers 2345 or 43.25, Aloj in your last post are you asking to change your guess to 30p ? If so, I feel that would be a bad move. Also romaron won't let you as he is a hard task master.
Aloj,
I think you will find that I have the SP competition "in the bag". My guess was 60p.
At the time the guys here thought I was too high to early. But now we can all see that a 60p SP is a realistic possibility for the end of 2022. Who knows maybe earlier !
We achieved FCF last year of 400m. This year we should see FCF 600 - 800m. Just transferring this value to the SP equates to an extra 30p -40p on top of the current SP. (We then get an SP of 65p to 75p) Once the market fully prices this FCF in !
As always POO is key.
Great find Swampmonster ! lol
Actually the jokes on me, I should have baught more when this was down at sub 15p. It seems to have "kicked-off" earlier than I anticipated. However Qtr1 production is out soon, then shortly followed by 2021 full results. Both are likely to be "poor" in my opinion. Well we know what numbers are in the full year results. How will the market react ?
So maybe a pull back coming, giving a last chance for the greedy to jump aboard again and fill our boots !
I still have a target price of 50p in 2023.
ATB January