Member Info for JAMESY1980

AIG - Don't agree - in the gloomy scenario you are proposing - how are upstarts going to justify and fund huge expansion??? The incumbents are likely to have a compentitive advantage in that they will have paid down infrastructure and some machines will be fully or partially depreciated as it's reasonable to assume they can be sweated for longer than their depreciation timeframes and again this is where ARB's prudent approach with their 3 year time frame could benefit. Not that I really want to think about it, but in a real armageddon crypto scenario, I know which of the miners assets have the most potential to have some residual value in relation to their debt.
Again I'm hoping that Bitcoin movements render the above theoretical period! $40k would be much less surprising than $20k IMO. Bouncing off $30k to propely break $31K would be a good start. Fingers crossed.

AIG, if I agreed with your views on bitcoin you wouldn't see me for dust here. Can’t throw numbers at you just now, but well controlled variable costs, pertinent use of debt (partially by funding past expansion through dilution) and my perception of the hodl to fixed cost ratio in the worst case scenario that ARB have to self fund existence for a period of time. Obviously in this theoretical scenario every miner would have a huge cost cutting exercise, but l do believe ARBs fundamental starting position is better. Open to challenge. Good luck.

Take any stock or asset that has appreciated nicely and look back to it’s recent lows. Why didn’t I buy an XJ220 when they were £50k? A dozen buy to let properties in 2009? Fifty bitcoins early 2019? Tesla shares in 2019? Answer is always the same sentiment was cr4p. Who is it that fortune favours again?

ARB are better placed than most miners to weather an extended period of depressed crypto prices and arguably could benefit through increased market share in the long time. Whilst it has been cr4p for investors their timing for the nasdaq listing and financing helios have been decent for the company. Not sure why so many crypto detractors feel the need to hang here. I’m counting on a strong crypto rebound through the summer, Putin to croak it and fuel prices to start normalising sooner than projected. Buying cheap takes big kahoonas but the potential is significant. GLA

The ducks are really lining up here. 30 day - Bitcoin down 25% Arb down 11%. Even with depressed cryto prices ARB could weather this well with expansion realisation pushing against the drop.

Chae's beloved MARA now down 45%... Owch. Struggle to see how he can be bullish on MARA and negative about bitcoin. If I had no faith in crypto, I'd be hanging out with the energy brigade at the mo.

Hydr - Agree with most of your summary. Only thing I’d challenge is your assumption that warehousing has been cheap lately. I know from personal experience that large scale warehousing has been very competitive fuelled by the pandemic home shopping boom. Not that I think it changes the principles you make.

Derampers having a Friday afternoon blow out? Bitcoin down 17% in a month MARA down 37% and Argo down 7% in the same period. Well placed for a bitcoin recovery and further realisation of expansion plans. Happy to grab another 10k here today below 60p. Have a great weekend all...

NC - You joined today... :)

Excellent - added another 10k.

Surprised at SP movement this morning given Bitcoin. Bit conflicted as I'm obviously happy it's holding up and this bodes well for ability to catch the wave on any bitcoin recovery, but I had thought I might have another sub 60 entry.

Great FY results released into a blustery bitcoin headwind. Hopefully opening day gets a leg up from bitcoin. Over $1k up on 4pm yesterday is a good start.

Chae - over 63p - clearly a buy and a shrewd one at that.

I keep getting shot down on here for saying it, but I think that the market is valuing ARB (And the other miners to a lesser degree) based on current performance more than forward potential. On this basis £300m is the low end of fair value IMO. ARB have had terrible output recently and the miners in general have not delivered on capacity projections so it is somewhat understandable. Where ARB differ from the others is that their expansion plans (Helios) are so tangibly close to realisation, the scale over the existing business is disproportionate and that 'Poor' output of late has the potential to be corrected. Put those together and that is why ARB is my biggest holding presently.

We can't control crypto prices, but I think that ARB will outperform the sector over the next 6 months and the market will recognise revenue. Maybe we could get Beyonce to flick the Helios switch for some extra recognition?

Donald J Trump doesn’t like crypto either so it must be doomed…

Very hard to calculate a credible P/E for crypto miners with so many variables moving independently. I assume you are extrapolating your theoretical year end ‘22 into steady annualised ‘23 return? P/E is also disregards the Hodl value which is very much significant. It is still however clear that the potential here is huge. If you consider both ends of fairly extreme possibilities for year end: $10k bitcoin/3EH to $150k bitcoin 7EH, it is clear to me there is way more upside than down. An April return much better than Jan to March would also lay a more solid foundation to take off as I don’t feel we have really had a great explanation of the poor P1 to P3. GLA

Chaebol. Your view on next 3-6 months all being Crypto movement based suggests ARB have addressed all your concerns about them in their results. Nice one ??.

Chaebol - it is nice to see you have removed your - ARB 37p footer. Maybe that is what has been holding the SP back. Where may I ask do you think we will be in 3-6 months now and why?

Agree that today started well and finished poorly. Worth remembering that bitcoin isn't doing us any favours and the other miners are mostly down. We are still best part of 10% up on our competitors today and it sometimes takes news a few days to get traction. I still feel we are in a great place to leave 60's behind and work our wayinto the 70's before any bitcoin movements are reflected over the next week or so.

Chae - it was up 9 % after hours across the pond and they had minimal time to read and absorb the results.

It is refreshing to see a stock that didn’t surge into close before dropping positive update. A sign for me of credible corporate structure.

Coindesk article suggests that 200MW will be operational in May. Nice as that would be I think there is minimal research or inside info there. I expect all forecasts from here on in will include an estimate for immersion uplift and just hope the uplift isn’t over egged. Not that Ill be crying if we only see 5EH by year end. Going to be a nice day here and hopefully weeks/months ahead. GLA