Member Info for JAMESY1980

Whilst Bitcoin does us no favours, at least the big man upstairs is giving us a hand:

https://www.nbcdfw.com/weather/weather-connection/nbc-5-forecast-2/2286145/

MG. 60k? You didn’t give me a number for my theoretical scenario- is it 66p?

I’m afraid it is closer to rocket science than your one dimensional view. Bitcoin is up 25% from the recent lows but ARB has gained around 70%. You completely discount the fact that margins and earnings will rise disproportionately with bitcoin as well as the fact that the company’s performance (good or bad) is also a driver of the price. I feel that any comments I’ve made about bitcoin futures and the SP are realistic and I have been accused on here of erring on the pessimistic side.

Dilutions have their place. Like most here, I’m not a fan but remember that the capital should add to the MCap and be utilised to drive the company value by a greater amount than the cost. Argo have stated they have no plans to fund current growth through dilution and IMO are unlikely to revisit this until the MCap is much higher.

Hexam - looking at MARA and RIOT, their quarterly reported losses don't seem to have had a negative impact on the SP so hope it is already all priced into ARB as well.

MG - Exactly thanks. What would you estimate Argo SP with Bitcoin at $32k, 3 EH/s, 125 coins/EH? By your logic, bitcoin would be 33% up so SP would be 66.5pish. If i thought that were the case you wouldn't see me for dust as all my crypto exposure would be in Bitcoin where I have no shot term liquidity questions or energy prices to worry about.

MG. If you reread my comment, it doesn’t say £1 at $30k. If you think miners will track Bitcoin movements proportionally, it suggests you have little knowledge of the industry. You do understand that there are costs and margins? Miners have dropped much more than Bitcoin because the ‘all in’ margins are disproportionately affected by the drops and may even have gone negative. This theory works in reverse should Bitcoin rise. Genuinely no idea why you would invest here if you think we will rise proportionally with bitcoin. There is less risk in holding bitcoin so suggest you seriously consider this even though I think your logic is flawed. Also worth pointing out that other miners have caps well in excess of twice ARBs with $24k bitcoin so although it’s the single most important factor, it is not the only Cap driver.

I would be very disappointed if a $50k Bitcoin resulted in a £1 ARB. If that were the case we'd be as well buying bitcoin. I suspect that if we had Bitcoin in the low 30's with expansion on course and efficiency in the right ballpark over the next month or two we could be pushing £1. I try not to get too carried away with where Bitcoin could go, but if we could move through the 30's towards the 40's by turn of the year, we would likely have numerous options to fund the intel machines. If we could fund and install them whilst pinning down a competitive fixed rate energy contract, potentially produce 600+ Bitcoin per month - that would be rather nice.

Mr B, well done you… you are clearly visionary. Arb was above £2.80 for a small part of a single trading day so I am not sure why you keep referencing this one spike?. 16p is 5.5% of £2.90, but what does that tell me or you?I

I shall be sure to remortgage my properties if bitcoin hits $25.5k based on your advice. :)

Mr B. Not sure suggesting that label for LTHs who have lost a lot has much more class… So you purchased on Tuesday, but declared this to the board on Friday night, after a further 10% rise? You were certain this stock had turned the downtrend after a 56% rise from the bottom on Tuesday, but on Thursday stated Bitcoin would need to hit $25.5k to confirm bull market?

Comparing your buy-in price to the ATH isn’t always a good idea. On that basis I would look like a genius as I love a potential recovery stock. This game is all about purchase price vs sale price. You haven’t made or lost a penny until you sell.

On a positive note Bitcoin does seem to be consolidating comfortably over $24k which hopefully bodes well for the week ahead. GLA

Not sure my post inferred you were a mug, but I would question your ability to calculate percentages. Pleased that you are on board and also that you are clearly bullish on bitcoin, but please refrain from name calling. Good luck.

Misterbeck, well done for your purchase I think we have a lot of headroom with many potential upward forces beyond bitcoin movement. In terms of your claim that there is ‘No point holding all the way through a downtrend’ I would point out that we are almost 70% up from rock bottom which is a fair old whack to miss out on to confirm the ‘downtrend has reversed’!

Great movement today compared to Bitcoin. Sold my first shares just over 49p as I was a little overexposed from numerous averaging down stakes. I still have 200k which I intend to hold long term. I know some have a way to go to get back in the black, but this is a decent step forward for all but the shorters. Roll on Bitcoin recovery, reduced curtailments, negotiated power contract, continued expansion and steps towards being the leader on efficiency. GLA

Nice strong support since July update. Bitcoin hasn't moved that much but sentiment seems to be returning. I might have a break even party at 49p. GLA

Interesting comparison of 3 miners liquidity by AP: https://compassmining.io/education/miners-face-millions-in-debt-payments-as-revenues-dry-up/

It’s not rocket science to suggest that liquidity could become an issue for many miners if bitcoin sustains the current prices for a number of years. I take some comfort from the fact that they are using a terrible Q1 for ARB and still suggest that it could be a issue over a number of years. We have made progress since Q1and need to continue improving production in Q3 and 4.

Jabberba. Where did you get the extra 3c from? PW stated that they are paying spot prices at the minute which can vary dramatically over short periods and that they are unlikely to negotiate fixed rate contract for a few months. I believe that theoretically spot prices could work out well when demand is lower but are likely to be higher in summer months, especially combined with historically high temperatures. August could remain tough in this respect but I expect costs to improve September regardless as to the contractual progress.

Sorry, meant moving to ‘MARA’.

Moving to ARB before recent rises was a good move, well done. MARAs EV is now around 7.5 times ARB. If you think they will maintain that level of advantage stay put. I suspect ARB will close the gap over the coming months and would suggest you consider returning with your elevated funds. There are obviously other considerations like owned infrastructure vs hosted machines but that is open to debate. Good luck.

Not sure PW or Argo have made mistakes, rather their strategy hasn't worked well with prevailing crypto movements. If we were sitting on a $75k Bitcoin we'd all be gloating about how the Galaxy loan was a great idea rather than selling as the hodl appreciation was much greater than the loan interest. I wouldn't have started investing early if I'd known where bitcoin was going, but neither would I have invested at the time if Argo's strategy was even more risk averse. From memory many were saying that Argo's modest growth strategy and relatively prudent use of borrowing was not aggressive enough to compete, but that approach could have pulled down the curtains. On the flip side those that said a more balanced selling vs hodl apprach and funding growth through proportional production sales whilst the price was buoyant have been proven right and Argo has picked up this strategy late. Anyway - it'll be interesting to see what the Nasdaq make of the July update...

Jabbrba - thanks for the youtube link. It is easy with hindsight to have a good strategy. Would have been inspired to hedge or sell some Bitcoin when the price was >$50k , but I'm not sure hedging when Bitcoin is perceived to be low would be a good strategy. Most investors are looking for crypto exposure so need be careful they wouldn't sell some of the future upside and make direct crypto purchase more attractive. From this point I'm happy to hold the crypto risk/reward.

Hexam - projecting a constant percentage rise was a bit tongue in cheek. It was however intended to make the point that the proportional increase in production month on month was decent given all of the challenges IMO.

Pokerchips - the grid has just survived the hottest July in history in Texas. Obviously they would like to have capacity to sustain loads without curtailment payments so they have a financial incentive to increase capacity going forward. Looks like we have managed to hit reasonably competitive efficiency through this historic July so I think the FUD is being exagerated and it isn't my biggest concern.