Member Info for JAMESY1980

I agree on principle that some form of diversification is on the cards but I don't think energy is the way to go. There are minimal synergies other than the fact that mining uses lots of energy. It could be a good political move given the environmental questions being asked but energy is generally a high capital slow and safe return which I don't think miners will be interested in.

American investors seem to be very different to UK. Sentiment/fundamentals balance is very different and there is generally more optimism. I can't see any reason why CLSK won't carry the sentiment baton for some time now and hopefully be the best mechanism to exploit a bitcoin bull run. Even after yesterday's correction, I think CLSK is better value than the rest but I think it is approaching fair value and many of the others remain over valued but there is a real FOMO risk as I don't believe anyone can predict bitcoin movements.

Don’t disagree CBull, but there is a lot of space between $850m and $2,900m, i.e RIOT.

I know I’m over simplifying, but if CLSK bought 10,000 bitcoin through a circa 33% dilution, where would mcap be considering MARA/RIOT’s valuations?

Some interesting stats in this article. I homed in on the estimated all in costs per bitcoin:

https://theminermag.com/data/overview/

Although disapointed with the monthly update, I still feel that there are some reasons for optimism here. It's just really frustrating that the previous issues around clarity seem to be continuing. I believe that the timing, size and level of the raise were pretty good and I would personally prefer to prioritise derisking (i.e debt reduction) over growth at this stage. Anthony power did a piece on margin's that suggested ARB's power costs per bitcoin are in the middle of the pack. I also believe that power grid balancing has significant value in Texas and that they should have negotiated decent returns for curtailment. I agree with CBull's concern about how they word this though in that they are almost double counting (cash in plus cheaper energy). I can only see ARB loosing ground for the next few months, but if they could draw down debt, bitcoin makes a positive move, and more info comes out with positive numbers around hosting costs/curtailment income then it could all come together. Concern is that they may be significantly under 10% of the capacity of the big boys by that stage. I'm not in but will be watching. Have a good weekend.

Feels like a poor monthly update. It's not even that the production of 129 bitcoin is unexpected. Vague references to cash for curtailment doesn't cut it for me. If they were expecting value to be significant I am sure they could put this across in the wording, even without specifics. The other thing that grinds a bit is the word thrilled in relation to growth, CEO may be 'Thrilled', but I'd prefer he kept this to himself until he has the company in a position where it has a credible growth plan. 'Pleased' would have done.

ARB are clearly going to continue losing market share for the foreseeable but I can't help feeling that they could do ok against the other miners in a bull run. It's a high risk mid term hold and I don't plan on investing unless they formulate a credible plan. They do however look good value on a straight eh/s to ev comparison suggesting to me that their challenges are priced in. They had to offer an indication of growth in the equity raise but I'd suggest they focus more on debt reduction with any profits should we see strong bitcoin price. I know investors don't like it but I believe that dilution over debt is the way to go for miners as investors are more patient than lenders and this is important with such a volatile product. Obviously investors ultimately need the whole industry to settle into a self sufficient cash generative position but that still seems some way off. It's going to be an interesting watch but I'll be careful to avoid getting burnt twice by the same company. GLA

To be fair, I wouldn’t put much faith in the BT article, it was full of spelling and grammar errors and I didn’t recognise all of the figures used.

Hope you are right Tymers as I'd like to capture some of that rise. I jumped in for a bounce once the Fud around the capital raise dissipated which I still think will happen if bitcoin plays ball, but it's too much of a risk to hold at the moment for me. Present a credible growth plan which I can believe in and I'll happily consider a longer term position.

Agree'd - dumped my ARB for a tiny loss and stuck that and some cash into CLSK at $6 on the nose.

US miners appear to be down circa 5% in pre market trading. Looks to be driven by Bitcoin which is down around 3%. I may be tempted to jump back into CLSK around $6. They appear to be hitting expansion targets and are closing the capacity gap on the two big boys so risk should be limited even against a weak bitcoin.

ARBK trading at $1.64 or equivalent of 12.7p. Highlights the difference between US and UK investors. Unlikely to retain such a gap but who will win?

Bought a few here this morning. Purely based on two things 1- the US miner sentiment remaining positive even against current bitcoin movements 2- An assumption that the ii's in at 10p will have had more visibility of a plan than a vague statement about debt and growth as I do fear is needed for opex.

There are no fundamentals to support investment here yet so it's still a punt. Could ARB have actually timed something well for the first in a long time? Bitcoin makes a move this week and the questions around this raise could be left long behind.

Agreed FP but the difference looking forward for me is the halving. Correct me if I'm wrong but many miners would likely continue to struggle to make a net profit with a $50k bitcoin post halving however I could live with a 60% rise?

All out of miners just now but starting to think about ARB again. It is really difficult to see a route to competitive growth. Mcap is too low for significant dilution, debt has become more expensive and ARBs recent issues won't have helped their credit ratings. Bitcoin increase could give some working capital but the problem with this scenario is that all miners will be doing well so expansion costs and difficulty will snowball. I'm sure they will constantly be looking for partnership or merger opportunities but without Helios I'm not sure what USP ARB have to offer. Am I missing anything or do we expect ARB to continue losing ground for now? I also can't help thinking that all miners are now priced on significant anticipated bitcoin rise so wondering if there is merit in buying holding bitcoin instead for 6-12 months?

I can’t really make sense of $3.5b mcap for RIOT just now. What value of bitcoin post halving would you need for hodl and production to justify that?

Really didn’t expect to see $7 so quickly! I pulled the trigger on my first lot too soon but I’ve learned never to be dissatisfied with any profit. To be honest I had expected more dilution before it hit $800m. I’m going to sit it out for a while, although Vanguard seem to have set the miners off, I’ve been surprised that they haven’t taken bitcoin up a notch yet.

Wow. What a recovery from the miners over the past fortnight. Just flogged the rest of my CLSK as I reckon $800m is close to fair value at $31k bitcoin.

Why no detail on curtailment value?