Member Info for JAMESY1980

Chopsing. I’m ignoring nothing. Please point me in the direction of these companies that provide ultimate transparency through rocky periods, warts and all…?

Argo have made many choices I’m sure they would change with hindsight, but I have yet to see anything I have felt was dishonest or misleading. If Bitcoin had held $40k+, they wouldn’t have had to draw down Galaxy digital loan and we can only dream of where that would have left us as Helios materialises and there would be multiple options for funding to continue fitting it out beyond 5EH. We aren’t there but I think ARB is best placed bet for a bitcoin recovery. I only hold ARB and a relatively small volume of bitcoin for my crypto exposure.

We finished up on Nasdaq today which is a little surprising and we are over 10 % up on where we were on Nasdaq on 14 July where Bitcoin price movement was very similar position to today. That after significantly pared back EH/s projections in H1 report. This suggests that the market feel we are making underlying progress. If only Bitcoin would stop p1ssing on us. Good luck.

May be dark just now but I can see glimmers of sunrise on the horizon. Lighten up FUD spreaders ARB is not an investment for those with weak sphincters.

Looks like ARBK is currently sitting over 37.5p on the Nasdaq which isn't as bad as I anticipated. Bitcoin back up comfortably over $20k. Lets hope it keeps this trajectory....

Apologies I didn't think it warranted an answer. Answer = No, Peter Wall doesn't get to keep Helios if Argo goes into administration...

Can you please answer my question?

MG - you clearly have limited knowledge of business, full stop. Any crypto mining investment is businesses is high risk as it is a volatile asset. I'm sure we all know that a sustained depressed price will put our stake at risk. If however you have the kahunas for it this bet it could pay off big time.

Question - Why when you have consistently claimed that Bitcoin is a 'Ponzi Scheme' have almost all of your posts been about a Bitcoin mining company? Are you an Altruist? :)

I think Bitcoin will rise when US opens, but as I've said before predicting it's movements is a mugs game.

Misterbeck, well done. :) You stated you bought in here after ARB had in your opinion confirmed an uptrend. You claim that you bought in at “44-45p” and declared this on this board when it was sitting at around 49p a few days later. You are now back when it is sitting at 41p saying you sold on Monday at the peak. I’m calling BS…

The price reaction today indicates that the market weren’t expecting much more than ARB have declared in H1 report. It can take a few days for news, good or bad to gain traction so I’m still watching closely, but I was unable to add today below 40p after all the Fud on here around the update. ARB remains a high risk investment but I’m still seeing it as the best crypto bet. GLA

Sorry to see you loose faith Hexam. Do you not see ARB achieving 3 EH/s this year and assuming that being the case and you presumably remaining positive on bitcoin why wouldn't you plan to up sticks in 2 or 3 months? I cashed out of Igas too early and it's hard not to keep watching it rise...

Appreciate the updates on the call today as I was unable to make it. I'm not surprised they are downbeat - crypto is having a protracted tough time and having to paydown the Galaxy loan was unexpected. Surely it is no surprise that pushing out expansion timescales was to be expected in these circumstances and has been priced in? The price movement today would suggest this to be the case, although I have no idea how the ticker on LSE seems to be more clunky for ARB than most other shares including many with much smaller MCaps and daily volumes.

Was their any further information on efficiency gains or securing a power contract?

*Hash projections unless Bitcoin went on a run. What was your view on how they would deliver/fund the expansion?

AB - I was surprised about the average selling price in June update (over $24k) but put it down to timing of sales. Hedging bitcoin appears to makes some sense in the current market as - a small cushion now is likely more valuable than if/when bitcoin takes off. Not sure the mechanics of this hedging but I imagine there is a risk it will work in reverse on any Bitcoin rise.

Not sure if I am too pessimistic on ARB but I hadn’t been expecting us to get anywhere near the

:) hope you are right as I’ll be reversing up an empty truck at 30p given progress made recently. It was already known that intel machines were not funded so doubt this will be a surprise to the market. Hexam again called this about right.

An almost doubling of current hash over next 7 months is plenty to be getting on with and I think that a cautious approach to capital investment is the right call until bitcoin dictates otherwise.

Only significant information I can see on first scan is the pared back EH projections for the intel machines. Seems like a fairly balanced approach. I can live with 3.2 EH year end and 4.1 EH Q1.

Agree AB - exciting few months ahead, which could be very good for the SP if bitcoin behaves. I downsized by around a third a couple of weeks ago but after saying I wouldn't, I've not been able to avoid the temptation of building again this week. I see far more potential upsides than down and can't really understand why we aren't being valued a bit higher by the market given all the potential imminent upside when compared with some peers. 3 EH/s, an electricity contract and decent efficiency are all surely just round the corner - Bitcoin is the only question, although to be fair it's a fairly big question.

Thanks for sharing your analysis AB - I believe Helios is in Ercot's West grid as per the reference in the link below. I doubt that there will be much variance between Texas grids though. I can't access your link as I have no VPN to hand, but I would say that I would expect a commercial volume discount on published spot prices. I have no evidence to support a commercial discount and recall PW referencing 'spot price' but hope there is one? Would it be worth checking if moving the threshold to 16c made any difference to the estimated downtime?

Your analysis is disappointing given my findings from the wholesale price movement, but could still make sense as smaller spikes are of little benefit if they are still above the break even threshold. Assuming your analysis is sound it is likely that the average cost of the 89% of uptime will be lower so hopefully still help margins, although we could do with Bitcoin helping us with August closing price to avoid offsetting them.

https://assets.website-files.com/61817e625cc1f4f31f76f168/628fa5435b7ae8b9022e8606_Argo%20Blockchain%20-%20Tx%20Work%20Group%20Blockchain%20Matters%20Testimony%205.19.22%20(1).pdf

i have had a play around with the Electricity wholesale prices on the website you linkled to AB - the data was horrible with different formats and numbers/dates pasted as text, etc.... The average wholesale price in the West Ercot grid (think that covers Dickens) was $147.80/MWh in July (Only a little above the US average for the same month) and has dropped to $90.86 so far through August. Although this is a 38.5% drop, this may not translate into a similar commercial spot price movement, but it does bode well for an improvement in energy costs and reduced downtime in August. The weather also looks fairly settled for the remainder of the month.

Hexam, sorry just read your point about the 13% being spread across the month. Agree with the principle, but Ive assumed that the written off machines didn’t add much in July, if this is wrong it would work against a still below par efficiency around 100coins/EH. 110 coins/EH with an averaged 2.4 EH/s would make 264. Fingers crossed.

A 13% increase in capacity, combined with a 10% increase with a combination of reduced downtime and efficiency gains would be nice and push us over 270. 250 would be ok, anything below would be disappointing.

AB - thanks for the link to power costs. I may have a dig through the data tomorrow but there is an obvious drop in August which is traditionally the hottest Texas month. I suspect spot price risk is minimal from September onwards. Does anyone know which Ercot grid Dickens is in? North?

Trying to predict Bitcoin is a mugs game. Even the so called experts have virtually no consensus. I don't believe in charting but I see psychological affects around the big round numbers. If it falls below $20k, I think there will be a lot of buying pressure.

490 machines a day. Not bad.

I know the liquid is non conductive, but it still seems wrong dunking electrics is a liquid.

Any chance we could be pushing towards 300 coins in August?

MG - why are you here spouting the same old drivel. You talk like you hold ARB but you think 40% rise in bitcoin will equate to a 40% rise in ARB. That is mental - why wouldn’t you just buy bitcoin with no exposure to the risks involved in running a mining business? Although you failed to give me a number for my scenario I will answer yours - my guess if Bitcoin jumped to $30k overnight is that we would close at something approaching 80p tomorrow. As AB says there are many further factors to consider, not least crypto sentiment which isn’t entirely tied to price movements but obviously linked but I have assumed a fairly positive crypto sentiment.