Member Info for JamestheBard

£35MMCAP is too cheap for me now with 2 pipeline products and my outlook for 2026, taken £20k. Should it go near 8p will take £50k as I did when it was 7p previously.

BOD news due early April, full year results, usually with Investor presentation and Q&A.

Eroxon Brand Manager Role ad removal, hopefully job filled. It is just more evidence that Haleon are only just getting started on this brand building journey. Why have they chosen to develop it as a brand rather than sell it as a product? Look at all the spin off ranges from their brands, panadol, sensodyne etc

So if 2025 miss a big milestone but it accummulates and pays in 2026, US sales have time to pick up by 2026 and Eroxon Intense should be available for all retailers to buy and put on their shelves, a massive stock up payment to FUM. Then 2026 Revenue could be between £25 -£29M, without any additional royalties from sales to consumers for Eroxon Intense, or licensing for WSD4000.

FUM get paid when Haleon buy, Haleon get paid when retailers buy and retailers get paid when consumers buy. Also royalties more likely 5 - 10% on wholesale price. But an analyst question at a previous Q&A indicated Haleon target of USD 100M and that would be them selling to retailers. So a slow start is based on a high figure as will be milestone payments. So missing a 5or6 million milestone payment has massive impact on FUM forecast revenue.

BOD have destroyed value here and before trials are designed and commenced for Eroxon Intense and WSD 4000 Haleon must seriously be attracted to taking advantage, being brutal and stealing FUM before it can recover. Then designing the trials themselves thereby avoiding missteps made with med3000. Pure speculation but the benefits and costings all stack up for Haleon right now.

Haleon are clearly interested in acquiring businesses that can contribute to growth. Eroxon is part of their growth target. If they see Eroxon Intense and WSD 4000 as future growth opportunity there is a short window to aquire FUM at a bargain price and have full control of product development. They could snap their fingers tomorrow and do away with Barder and Hildreth and do it all themseves.

Haleon are actively seeking targets to strategically bolt on and FUM fit that category if they so choose, hence their CEO being asked about taking over FUM today in results Q&A. FUM are also £40M MCAP with pipeline products and costs that can be cut out. So, at what price would Lombard be persuaded to cash out from here?

The questions are being asked, will FUM get taken out on the cheap?

Https://www.haleon.com/content/dam/haleon/corporate/documents/investors/full-year-results-2024/FY24-video-transcript%20.pdf.downloadasset.pdf

What they didn't say was" no that wouldn't suit us at all".

They were not surprised by the question?

Q&A over asked about FUM revision on revenues and accept it is below expectations at present but it is in with their 4-6 % growth. Asked if they need to absorb FUM to shake it up a bit and if they have room for M&A. There is lots on M&A and what they are looking at strategic bolt on fits etc that offer product innovation. Full Q&A transcript will be on Haleon page later.

Speculation will be on takeover as analsyst asked the specific question about takeover of FUM.

Haleon are interested in takeovers if it strategically supports their business and it seems if it brings new product innovation.

The actual Q & A will be on Haleon website later

Interesting an analyst has just asked if Haleon need to absorb FUM to shake it up a bit and if they have leeway for M&A activity. They confirm they have room for M&A, but no specific comment on FUM.

Those who were aware of Coopers delaying plans on Eroxon rollout throughout Eastern and Central Europe will also now be aware why. The recent deal with Magna Pharm will facilitate smoother rollout throughout the entire region.

Haleon figures on Erexon and narrative on launch progress due Thursday.

Amazon US No 1 best seller 20000+ boxes pm still.

Walmart best seller, 1250 reviews 42% 4/5 stars.

Walgreens 5 star reviews easily outweigh 1star.

Haleon will provide details on US launch progress and sales figures on the 27th Feb.

Q1 2025 Corporate Presentation available on Cora website.

Trying to keep as obvious as possible for newbies. My first investment here was 4/5 years ago. Crunched the numbers and followed Mali Politics and Country risks but taken active interest again since Berts recent meetings in Mali. Since then been accummulating more as all the progress has been ignored and the resource is open in all directions. Rather than wait for a revised DFS it is fairly simple to adjust the original with todays numbers and pre empt the market.