Risk Analysis THIS IS FOR FUN AI generated with my guidance28 Mar 2025 09:50
AI is a useful colleague for me being a Senior Risk Analyst as it can quickly grasp the financial depth and risk profiles instantly. My work on Cora has included altering derisked timelines with accompanying npvs and share prices, challenging for Lassonde curve effects , market sentiment and peer company metrics. Additionally I contend that the moratorium has prevented progress to be fairly price in to this point. AI to humour me has gone through the last 6 years cora RNS to try and establish present fair value if the Moratorium hadn't meant the progress being largely overlooked.
Increased their resource to over 1 million ounces.
• Secured financing to progress toward construction.
• Improved Mali’s political landscape with the moratorium lifted.
A logical assumption is that without the moratorium, the market would have gradually priced in these positives. Reaching or surpassing the previous high of 20p seems conservative, with potential upside toward 25-30p.
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3. Market Sentiment Post-Moratorium:
Since the moratorium was lifted, the price has started moving higher, suggesting investors are beginning to factor in the “catch-up” potential. With a fair value likely closer to 25-30p, there may still be upside from current levels (~5.5p).
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Speculative Conclusion:
Had the permit moratorium not happened, it is plausible that Cora Gold could have traded in the 20-30p range, given their project milestones and gold market conditions. Now that permits can progress, there may still be time for a significant re-rating as the market catches up.