Member Info for JamestheBard

As far as I can tell there were 2 or 3 smallish sellers over a few days £50k ish each on missinderstanding the 90 permit withdrawals having no impact on Cora and newspapers suddenly highlighting the Jihadist risk in Mali and suggesting Jihadists could take over Mali.

No security analyst suggests Jihadists can storm Bamako!!!! They have a very effective hit and run road blockade causing fuel shortages in Bamako and so serious pressure on the Junta to solve it.

Fuel is getting in by armed convoys.

So Country Risk has increased, Cora is in a safe region right down south.

%of NPV would adjust for extra risk but Cora was already below that level of risk adjusted NPV anyway.

Looks like permit process has moved to last stage ie Council of Minister Approval.

To Counter fuel blockade Russia signed a trade deal last week to allow new trade routes.

To counter terrorism US are assisting since fuel blockade began replacing French intelligenge withdrawal. Russia also assist.

Russia are urging greater International support and the whole region is working on how to counter the growing Jihadist threat.

The Junta attempted to stop the Jihadists getting fuel and banned sales away from petrol stations, the response was to announce fuel blockade in September.

Last week it got a lot a dramatic news reporting.

A rapid solution would be to invite US Reaper drone pilots to train in convoy escort duty for a few months!

US has been engaging with Mali this year especially since September with high level National Security counter terrorism and State Dept officials visiting.

Christopher Landau Deputy Sec of State has just posted on X about discussions with Mali commending their fight against Jihadist extremists and shared security interests in the region. Look forward to greater cooperation!

So a policy shift was underway by US but this is a strong statement by US Deputy Secretary of State.

Comparison study between Eroxon and Eroxon Intense involving 200 participants should have completed end of October.

Essential information to know how to proceed when the expected marketing approval for Intense arrives 2025.

Russia has stepped in with a trade deal to supply fuel allowing additional trade routes to open. 160,000 to 200,000 tons pm of petroleum products.

1000 fuel tanker convoy escorted into capital few days ago. Fuel companies are arranging new routes in.

CEO meeting with Minister of mines was finalising last stage before permit goes before Council of Ministers for final approval.

From what I read Cora said it related to old permits they surrendered years ago and indicated it was so was so irrelevant it didn't even warrant comment.

Lombard likely stand ready to lend via last minute Jan 26 convertible loan note to be settled by patent milestone from Haleon, if not then converted to equity.

Contingent on assest sales, likely Dermasys with TPR range as proof of concept. FUM keeps rights to develop sexual function portfolio.

Dermasys sale funds provides funds to develop pipeline and particularly stocking in sales for Eroxon Intense.

Worst case is an Administrator gets appointed for 12 months and oversees asset sale and launch of Eroxon Intense, collects milestones and relinquishes control again in 12 months, essentially "protecting" the business whilst Intense stock in funds come in.

Eg REDX, RENE.

The structure will be a separate company for the mine with Cora holding 65% to 85%, so if Mali Govt hold 30% and Mali locals 5% they aren't Cora shares. Doubt shares in that new company will be tradable easily.

Bully Barrick and all other mining companies comply more easily. Cora will agree to Mali Govt demands and Mali will want to show it is open for business. Barrick is a different animal, they have and are fighting all the way. Lost revenue from Barrick is worth it to Mali to emphasise compliance to everyone else.

10% free carry. 5% locals, usually employees or contractors etc as part payment or incentives etc.

20% paid interest, probably based on NPV or fair market value of the project, maybe build cost?

So a new DFS with enhanced figures will affect the project value and the cost for Mali govt to purchase 20% of the project.

If they purchase 20% by upfront payment it will impact/assist the build financing, or it may be deferred.

So if the project is valued at cost to build, say USD100M they may need to pay USD20M for 20%.

It may all be being negotiated and new DFS needed to finalise.

CEO is optimistic regarding permit and has been having regular positive engagement with Mali govt.

If I find more on how the 20 paid interest % is calculated as to the actual USD amount they have to pay I will post

To clarify, when FUM requested the new EU factory to "re tool" a production line to produce Eroxon they would only do so with order guarantees. Ensuring a profit margin for turning a production line over. The choice is yes or no, FUM had a poor outcome but may have been worse if the plants other option was an up front payment to make the changes. Problem is FUM keep it all secret, all we know is they changed production locations and it carried a large cost in production volume penalties.

It's not too late just yet, got enough cash H2 2026 and Haleon have only just started. Haleon manufacture, distribute, advertise so very little Barder can do to help that go wrong. They have new Brand Manager in, have innovated already with 8 pack, adapted marketing with celebrity lauch of Ed (ED) the Chat bot on the website. Already showing how professional they are.

2025 can be recovered with 8 pack in stores alongside the 4 pack. That would generate the same volume, or more than the original 4 pack launch going into stores. That may even end up triggering a milestone after all for 2025? Thats 1 year of US 4 pack sales, 2024 had 3 months at best, and 8 pack stocking in sales. Likely 4 pack stocking in payment for FUM circa £2M.

2026 Full year US sales with learnings implemented from first full year and then stocking in sales for Intense 4 pack and 8 pack if they follow original Eroxon format. 2026 will also have Intense rollout to ROW.

Eroxon Intense will likely be a better product with the sensorial benefit.

So the launch of Haleon 8 pack may turn 2025 around otherwise it's wait for Eroxon Intense and rely on Haleon professionals running things in US rather than FUM.

At least one analyst following Haleon has suggested to their CEO that they do it. £40M of tax losses to utilise, save the milestones, possibly accelerate wsd4000 to market. Gain rest of the world licenses. Absorb outfourced FUM manufacturing themselves. Dismiss FUM BOD and non essential staff. Never have to deal with Barder or Hildreth again. Inttoduce 8 and 28 pack across all stores.

BOD have little value now, just Ken James to keep delivery pipeline to Haleon. The real future is Haleon and their professional expertise to execute strategy now not FUM BOD. So already Haleon have an 8 pack, the stores buy that to shelf stock, which is an immediate sales boost, why didn't FUM and Coopers think of that?

Haleon have introduced Ed the chatbot to help target the correct users online, so that correct user segment targeting began a while ago.

Lombard obviously have ideas to discuss with the board about future business model.(Chairman statement?)

Then give Haleon Eroxon Intense by early next year and again they sell in an immediate boost to stock stores, likewise with Coopers.

So follow Haleon results at end of month and their capital markets day 1st May and there will likely be more valuable news in a few minutes than an hour from FUM BOD.

Lots of short term share price drivers around Mali and if they can prove up a MRE in Senegal it hits a big CORA de-risk point. A second proved resource and more importantly in a different country jurisdiction as well.

Cora is so busy on all fronts, exploration team active, positive engagement on mining permit, Flat out on updating DFS and mine planning. Looks like a few months ahead of steady progress and newsflow.

Its not %s of Cora, but %s of a new company that will be formed for the mine in Mali. The impact will be on how the construction is financed. Key stakeholders were injecting 20M with 70M finance. As I have already mentioned on here Mali Govt may now also want to inject for a capital stake(20%). So Mali Govt likely dictating terms for the permitting and their "joint venture" position. So will they force a scale back of the proposed key stakeholder injection to be partly replaced by theirs?

Also Toubani were granted early tax and royalty breaks so there are benefits to this joint venture approach.

Mali are not entitled to any of the rest of Cora and Senegal.

These recent raises and warrants, when Cora still had circa 1M USD cash on hand felt a little like positioning themselves better for Mali Govt scaling back their expected investment levels later?

We wait and see but for sure there is easily enough gold and future profit to go around.

The exploration team has also been instructed to further "explore" both Mali and Senegal.

Revues have become irrelevant for FUM for next few years.

Haleon placed a box of 4 in US stores £4m milestone £2m profit ie no manufacturing or distribution etc

Now a box of 8 is double, say £8m overall

Box of 28

These generate one off stocking in revenues

Then same again in 2026 for Eroxon Intense, boxes of 4, 8 and 28.

These years of stocking in revenues represent profit for FUM, straight to FUM bottom line.

These profit generating transactions will occur with little to no consumer interaction, just a few boardroom meetings.

Thats probably giving too much away and I might be in trouble.

One of the manufacturing arrangements is in the US by Haleon.

The 28 pack size, once introduced, will be very much introduced for regular repeat uses seeking to replicate a " prescription pack" model.

4, 8 , 28 packs for Eroxon 2025 with range additions 4,8, 28 packs Eroxon Intense 2026.

What Haleon are doing will show FUM production and Coopers marketing how the professionals boost store footprint and product sales.