Member Info for jamesjohn

For what its worth, I believe the most likely out-come is a JV.
leaving aside all the legal detail, which I wont pretend to understand, I'd guess the funding for the second phase in return for approx. 40-50% of the asset. This would leave us with £100-150mil of asset, taking into consideration increase in gas prices and cap ex.

This means we have spent 50mil on first phase, ( the most risky phase) and they spend a similar amount on phase two, (the less risky phase). All based on permits being approved by ARSO of course. In my view this would be an OK outcome, possibly better than a buy-out, depending on the price or an improved offer on the JV.

The Slovenia cabinet has been finalized at long last.

They have now said they will get down to work, with the ecconomy being one of the priorities.

They also have made a pledge to be pro-business. So lets hope they look at speeding up the permit process by employing more staff at ARSO.

If a bid was to come in before the permits, I would imagine conditions would be attached, ie. a time-line on permits being issued.
If I was making an offer I would wait until it's complete.

Good comment!

You asked why, I gave you my reasoning.

If they had waited for the permits before doing the SR, then the time taken to have concluded the SR would have made it difficult financially.

Because they were expecting the permits to be issued sooner, and the shareholders have also asked to be consulted on future funding.

Why not?

No Permits = No Bids

Permits = Bids.

IMO.

Most likely cash to develop the field, (ie phase 2), in exchange for a percentage of the asset. What ratio that will be is anyone's guess.
However a company could offer slightly more cash for 100 % of the asset and the extra cash could swing it. It's whether shareholders still have the appetite for future developments with a new partner.

Time to relax... goodnight!

It could be a good example.

I think a 200 mil house in auction would go for at least 70 - 80 mil.

Badge.... you are correct the options don't have too much influence on the bid, however there are multiple companies looking seriously at the project and each one of them know that. As a result you can't afford to put in too low of an offer.

Also the only reason we have an end game at the end of the year is because we as shareholders have forced the AST BOD, this can be reversed if we wish. So any bidder still knows the game is not up come Jan 2019!

I'll say it again the permits are key to us moving forward and us getting a favourable offer, unless someone is willing

to proceed without permits. Once those permits arrive, 99 % sure this will rocket.

Gerry.... In answer to your question, I'm afraid I will not comment on whether I would buy more at 1.2p, as this is giving advice to others, which I don't do. It's there decision to make!

I'm not a trader, I have topped up many times over the last few years, adding when ever I've thought it low enough. I hope to make a profit when all is done.

As I say it may go down without news over the next couple of weeks, then again it may not. I don't need to worry too much about that. As an Investor it's all about buying on the dips and coming out with a profit in due course.

I hope you enjoyed your evening with friends and hope you didn't think or worry too much about AST while in their company, (for someone not invested you appear to spend more time here than me) ha ha!

I think if you are a trader then yes you are probably thinking it may drift lower over the next few weeks without positive news.

However those who don't trade, if you are prepared to wait a month or two you could be looking at 2x, 3x or 4x your money depending on permits coming through and SR conclusion.

At the end of the day it's your choice and none of us know when that news is going to land, or at least we shouldn't know.

Gerry... I don't know who the companies are, one or two maybe very big and can afford to wait, I don't know the answer to that. I was just making a point which I believe I have done.

As for funding, there are many ways of raising funds if shareholders agree, then continue to develop, but at a slower speed. However we can't do this without the permits!

I have to go to work now.

No, the point is we are getting it out of the ground, we just need the permits to continue. I agree if we don't get them then the asset stays where it is. If you check my posts over the last 2.5 years I have stated many times, the permit is the golden ticket. That is what we are waiting for!

Remember after you spend another 40-50 mil on phase 2 you will have a minimum of 240 - 250 mil asset in the ground.

So the MINIMUM you would expect is are money back plus a small premium.

The field will be working commercially, once the permits are in place. It also has been working, it requires re-stimulation, which is standard.

You don't expect a company who has spent 50 mil and years of exploring, proving data, building infrastructure, going through the courts to then give away a 200 mil asset for 10 -25 mil do you. Very Strange!

correction...'time to get'

Just for clarification!

It is only 10 mil euros to build plant not 20 mil.

The reason for building the plant was becuase when they started they had no one to sell the gas to other than Slovenia and that as far as I am aware required a processing plant . Plus they knew it would take a long time get.