Member Info for jam2morrow

Thank u @Dai . So from the 3 RNS there have already been exercised about 10M
I don't know what this phrase means exactly -''we exclude the warrants and options that are significantly out of the money'' but it seems there are around 10M of those also.
So maybe 40M dilution still possible. Its interesting with scirroco; they are under 3% holding now so don't have to RNS when they sell. They are a 'stressed' seller to some extent but they must have a better understanding of the upside here than me. I wonder if the shares they held and still hold are classed as free float ?

implys that shares have been bought by company officers , cornerstone investors or the government ?! and so are not in free or public float. That is informed guesswork by me at best. I am interested in the amount of warrants that were issued tho' . Is that info available anywhere?
I have taken a small position in SCIR because they held 21M or possibly 24M shares in HE1. we know that they have sold down to, or below, a level of @17M shares but don't really know how far they've gone. SCIR have 1M warrants as well but there is no notice of a conversion yet

For general corporate and working capital costs and debt repayment.

as stated in placing RNS amongst other things

not open to members of the public - usually price drops down to offer price - then decide if u want to buy more. These book builds are usually done double quick time, there may be RNS tomorrow pm ?

Typical timing from me - bought in this morning, still, not as bad as that 17.06 trade...ouch !

@Nomadic - you have to wonder about that placing - it seemed very rushed . Just when the SP had got a bit of wind in its sails

''The Bacanora Independent Directors view the Possible Offer to be an attractive proposal which they would expect to recommend to Bacanora Shareholders in the event that Ganfeng releases the Agreed Form 2.7 Announcement at the Offer Price and otherwise on the terms and subject to the conditions to be agreed in the Agreed Form 2.7 Announcement.''

The independent directors are all directors apart from Xiaoshen Weng
If the offer is rejected it doesn't put either the directors or Ganfeng into a particularly good place. Ganfeng have a lot of other joint ventures around the world so if they started underhand tactics it wouldn't enhance their reputation. If they start playing hardball it could backfire badly.
My thinking at the moment is that they're using this period before the formal announcement to gauge the feeling of the shareholders , and then maybe adjust the offer as they think fit ? I don't think it'll go up much tho'
Interestingly the Takeover code UK markets says if greater than 30% share ownership then the holder must make an offer for the rest of the issued shares and that offer should be the highest price reached in the last 12 months - ........68p
Some big trades showing as buys after hours today

from RNS:
In particular, Bacanora Shareholders should note that the Offer, if made, would be conditional upon, among other things, the Scheme becoming unconditional and Effective (including its approval by a majority of Scheme Shareholders present and voting (in person or by proxy) representing 75 per cent. or more in the value of the Scheme Shares held by such Scheme Shareholders).
I was with Sirius when Anglo American came in and bought the whole lot, but Ganfeng's 28.89 % stops that happening

broker should contact u - corporate actions - but we only have a proposed deal at the moment. I will e-mail asking for an explanation as to the reasons why this price has been 'recommended'. We deserve some response from the company. Ultimately will come down to the institutional holders : Hanwa , M&G Prudential, Robeco was one that bought in at the placing so maybe they'll accept.

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GNENF/
These guys above seem to be on the ball if ur looking for Li co's. Paying a divi already :) I take it OTC board in US would be fairly easy for us to buy on ?

The post below i put on the HE1 board earlier . Depends on what u think HE1 share price rises to with a hit on one of the drills but if u think it will get to double present price - 40p plus, then the present price of sub 20p is a gamblers bet.
None of this constitutes financial advice :)

assuming 12% CoS on all drills then 88% of failure on all drills
Chance of all drills failing = 0.88 x0.88 x 0.88 x0.88 = 0.6 = 60 % So the chance of at least one hit would be the other 40%
Of course the numbers need to be taken with a huge pinch of salt because the 12% figure is basically taken from the recent historical CoS of all wild cat drills. I actually think our chances are better than that . I would say better than 50/50 over the 4 drills - of course you have to make up your own mind.
The interesting thing for me is working out a strategy as the drills come up : If 1st misses how far will share price drop ? how far will it rise as we go to 2nd drill ? ie do i top slice before 1st drill to have money ready to catch the bottom again.
Tricky business this !

Kalinit - At the risk of seeming patronising !.....if ur trying to work out chance of 1 hit happening from 4 drills u don't need to go thru all the permutations:
assuming 12% CoS on all drills then 88% of failure on all drills
Chance of all drills failing = 0.88 x0.88 x 0.88 x0.88 = 0.6 = 60 % So the chance of at least one hit would be the other 40%
Of course the numbers need to be taken with a huge pinch of salt because the 12% figure is basically taken from the recent historical CoS of all wild cat drills. I actually think our chances are better than that . I would say better than 50/50 over the 4 drills - of course you have to make up your own mind.
The interesting thing for me is working out a strategy as the drills come up : If 1st misses how far will share price drop ? how far will it rise as we go to 2nd drill ? ie do i top slice before 1st drill to have money ready to catch the bottom again.
Tricky business this !

Remember that Ganfeng do not need to buy the shares they already own; so effectively their 67.5p offer represents 70% of the company ie if they buy all shares they need to spend @ £180M but if another bidder came in at same price they would need to buy all 384M shares at 67.5p-a cost of 257M.
I was thinking about Ganfeng's 50/50 stake at project level; if they bought out the whole company the payment for that stake would not have been necessary ? ...I think?
Also interesting to see what happens with KDNC and ZNWD. Ganfeng would have 40% of ZNWD if this deal goes thru so they would have to issue mandatory takeover bid ?.... again, not completely sure here.

Blimey, thats a fair bit of digging @ MrSpaceTomato. Thankyou . Looks like Heritage still have licences for South Rukwa area. They're not PLC anymore - were bought out by Qataris ? Lots of money there - wonder if there's been any interaction between the two co's ?

@S Tomato - I read that stuff from Heritage Oil as well. Was it 2016 / 2017 ? In the end tho they didn't drill and I never found out a reason why. I think they actually wanted to drill into lake Rukwa bed from water staged rig ?

You have sort of answered ur own question @Prophet - because Ganfeng have mounted a creeping takeover of the company.
Albermarle , posssibly, in the Li space ? Otherwise Rio, Glen, one of the big multi asset guys, but if they did come in, would they have to re-do all Ganfeng's design work (that we haven't seen yet), could Ganfeng effectively block any approach ?
I think the share price is under true value because of an engineered placing that was too low, and was then bought into by ii's who then engineered to sell at a loss, to keep the price below placing ,so that Ganfeng could offer low.
I think Ganfeng have taken on the 'engineering design' for this project :(

@EV bull - Thacker pass would be the best comparison to Sonora. LAC Mcap is currently c £1billion. It depends how much of that Mcap u would attribute to Thacker pass but I would say at least a third more likely half. Don't forget that they still have to finance that mine. So to answer ur question i think we should have been sitting around Ganfengs offer price...... before the offer came in.
The Mexico/security issue is bought up a lot but a lot of the big car manufacturers seem to be able to run big operations there and i don't read of too many probs?
The problem here is the amount of control Ganfeng have, not only of the issued shares but also of all the engineering design work. They would always have that leverage on any offer negotiations.
Maybe their offer is an opening gambit and they have a fair price in mind. For sure they know how much value is locked up in those clays but so do Secker and the rest of the board; so why are they recommending it ?
I've made this comment before but the hindsight view here shows us that Ganfeng were the company to buy shares in when they first got their claws into us

@Bail - Here's what the cynical side of me thinks: The placing price was too low, should have been 50-55 and maybe Ganfeng had some say in that. An 'institutional' placing buyer then starts to offload at a loss to keep the price down and give Ganfeng the time to organise the buyout offer with Beijing.
There is no way that price should have slipped below placing and been kept so low. I posted 2 or 3 times on here saying it was crazy to be selling sub-45 with this asset. Crazy like a fox?
Is it manipulation? or is it good business?

After the NextView deal fell thru (Chinese again) nobody wanted to touch us with a barge pole, the lithium price was down but no western country or company had the imagination to take a long view and invest in the future...... but the Chinese, backed by their govt did. P Seckers been played to some extent and we don't know whats gone on behind the scenes. The final raise was at too low a price - but again- look what happened after - 'people' selling shed loads below placing price!! For whatever reason the market was not prepared to invest in this world class asset and hasn't been for the last 4 years.
I got as many as i could at 40p because it was a no brainer, so will not lose out. But should be sooo much more !!!
THe quote from the Jack Nicholson movie........ '' forget it Jake...... it's Chinatown''