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Seb - listening to the 2 scientists on today’s briefing it was interesting to hear them talk about the likelihood of a winter wave 2 and the fact that winter will bring added complications with it - the rush is still on to have an effective treatment strategy in place....the public / markets etc might be moving on rather naively but the scientists are not. Complacency is a huge danger here IMO
Myles McNulty tweet
https://twitter.com/mylesmcnulty/status/1270671318862659585?s=21
Every pandemic in history has returned after the initial wave has receded - respiratory based ones have typically followed the seasons - and so even now in Europe, where the first wave has largely swept through, the need is for protection. Until there is (if ever) an effective vaccine produced the world needs effective therapies, stockpiled and ready for deployment.
Ideally a therapy that will reduce viral impact and severity, thereby avoiding the need for hospitalisation. We are waiting (some very anxiously) to see whether SNG fits the bill. We believe that it can act as that protector for COPD and asthmatic patients against cold and flu virus....we hope that it can also against COVID. If successful then it becomes something of an insurance medication....there in case of need. And that is valuable......
Was busy yesterday so only viewed this board last night - felt like surveying a battlefield at the end of a days fighting! And like others have been sad with the SP and the influx of 1 posters, seemingly acting in a co-ordinated attack, looking to undermine the positions of longer- term BB ‘residents’.
Did get me considering my own decision making with SNG - originally drawn in by COVID, yet it was the work around COPD that particularly attracted me and the vast potential to provide a therapy for a chronic disease where the size of market is so vast. COVID was a driver to progress things, via the placing, although the COPD trial was suspended with COVID trials taking priority.
And we are where we are. Except the decision and announcement that surprised me the most was the unblinding of the COPD data - why, there had to be an exceptional reason for doing this....otherwise it would have made complete sense to allow that trial to complete in the fullness of time.
My own feeling / instinct is that it is to meet the requirements of a third party and the reasoning will become clear shortly. With the background history of SNG there must be confidence in what this data will reveal in terms of effectiveness. This is the game changer for the COPD market and where the ultimate embedded value of SNG lies. My further instinct for COVID is that, based on the anecdotal feedback from the Bradford / Leicester Drs, there will be ‘some small but welcome benefit’ ....and then we know that aligns with the thinking that hospital cases as less likely to be effective on the SNG dosing timeline...and then the home trial which, providing numbers allow, I believe should show a higher level of effectiveness with earlier intervention.
So, having reflected, notwithstanding the current SP pressure I remain confident that this therapy will deliver patient benefit - especially COPD. Furthermore I strongly believe that there is some corporate ‘event’ building in the background and that is the reason for the early COPD data release. Thank you to the ‘1st posters’ yesterday - can be good to reaffirm why one invests in a share.
Well that was as helpful a call, in 30 mins, than anyone could possibly have wished for! Plenty of news to fall in quick order and massively undervalued - with such high quality product and escalating EV demand a great product / market fit....an investor’s dream situation.
Tony Blair on R4 Today now saying that instant mass antigen testing is the only way forward - cited British companies have tests available - and that Govt must change its current targeted antibody tests needs to change
Telegraph feature that 11 countries reimposing restrictions after fears of impending COVID 2nd wave
https://apple.news/AZdjRCusNQP2JYop9TNYWRw
Goose - To be honest the closer I’ve got to this share the more I’ve liked what I’ve seen, especially the background history and the professional way it’s been approached over the last few months. Would obviously love to see a really great outcome - yes for my wealth - but importantly for those that will need help when the next waves of this virus return (as it will)....and also as a reward to the SNG team for a job well done. Here’s hoping - and I’m off for a cider right now!
Nolupus - I think you’re spot on about hospital results - I keep in mind the Leicester consultant saying that the trial therapies were likely to offer ‘small but welcome benefit’. I would still take that as a positive.
However, the whole rationale of SNG for COVID / Asthma / COPD is to reduce a severe viral response when a vulnerable patient is hit by a virus. A home therapy that (hopefully) avoids the need to become an inpatient. And that is a valuable game changer......