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I thought ST’s view (£20m revenue/£10m Profits in FY 2021) was rather conservative actually. For example you can get to the revenue figure from EUS of £3bn at 0.5% fee plus £5m data revenue. This year we may see EUS of £1.1-1.2bn at 0.65% and £2.5m data revenue. If (IF!) BGO can continue to double EUS each year then we’d see something like £4.5bn+ at, say 0.5% fee, and that alone is £22.5m+ revenue with data on top. We really need to hear the latest company thinking about EUS projections and the corresponding average fee. I could easily see the data revenue doubling next year to £5m-ish, and more again in 2021. The margin here is much lower though - c30-35% only.

Allenby's forecasts clearly assume that all, or virtually all, Murata's current supercap sales are retained in the switch over to CAP-XX. Their projected EBITDA for FY22 is A$5.37m, or very close to £3m. With 440m shares in issue after the capital raising, that means an EV/EBITDA ratio of approx 4.4x at the current share price. That seems to me to be very low considering you'd normally expect at least twice that , even for a fairly staid industry let alone a growing one. Of course this does rely on retaining the current Murata customers, but why wouldn't they? Murata says it'll introduce them, and the customers clearly have a need for the products. So whilst there's still risk there, it does now seem to me to be a low risk share with plenty of upside.

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Chippy
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IWantThatOne

Bmac, I see in a post earlier this morning you used the phrase "oven ready EV charger". You're not Boris Johnson, are you? Also you continue to be exercised by the likelihood of a cash call on discounted terms. You do know, don't you, that the £4m that can be drawn down from Thalion - enough to cover AFC's running costs for about a year - is on decent terms:
"The Company can draw down up to a maximum amount of £500,000 in any 60 day period. The maturity date of the Convertible Loan Notes is 42 months from the date of the Instrument. The Convertible Loan Notes are issuable at a price of £22,500 (representing a discount of 10% to par value) and are convertible into new ordinary shares of 0.1 pence each in the Company ("Ordinary Shares"), at a price equivalent to the lower of:
· a 25% PREMIUM to the volume weighted average price ("VWAP") on the business day before draw down; or
· the lowest VWAP from the three business day period prior to conversion."

Great news today! Big picture - the company will replace 5% royalties on A$14m with the gross margin on those sales (if it can keep them). Previously it has reported margins of up to 50%. Even at 25%, the profit would be A$3.75m pa. Together with other direct sales and royalties this will push the company into profitability, as well as giving it a cheaper and scalable manufacturing platform. Look forward two years folks and this is very good news.

Chippy, I will be there at Dunsfold but for completeness my main question is, what are you plans to strengthen the balance sheet?

FCI, my heart sinks too when I logon and see us 13.95% down on the day, but AB can't conjure up another RNS whenever there's a bit of price weakness. There's been about a dozen strong RNS in the last month, I don't think that's bad, do you? Compared to the famine of recent years it's a veritable feast. I think a better course of action is to completely ignore all the new de-rampers and traders who've suddenly appeared here, and then we may see fewer shareholders spooked into selling.

There's been plenty of speculation that Disney+ will be the next big deal announced by BGO, though nothing yet even though it has launched in the US. What are the odds on another market for Amazon physical goods? Japan has been running for 2.5 years now and the model will have been well and truly proven. The US Amazon market is 10x that of the UK in 3rd place globally, at $160bn (Japan is 4th). Now wouldn't that be interesting?

Glad I only looked at the share price just now and not half way through the day! I’ve learned a lot about hydrogen safety from the posts today, thanks folks.

Just taken another look at Dugbe while waiting for news on Yanfolila. The PEA gave an NPV of $186m at $1300 POG. At $1400 POG, you get an additional $110m of NPV, according to my calcs. Reducing power costs by half by replacing diesel generators, as I've banged on about loads on here) could add another $100m, almost. That's well over $1 per share. Obviously a free carry with a large partner would deliver a lot less but the point remains - get Yanfolila settled, chaps, so we can move on to realise some of Dugbe's value.

Agreed, Sanankora is bigger than HUM's Yanfolila in terms of ounces, though grades may not be as good.

That placing certainly didn't help, FCI, but the retrace in the SP is surely due to the usual concerns around little cash, no products in the market (quite yet)and no sales? We've been given a glimpse of the future and it looks great, but now back to the hard grind to make it happen. It certainly sounded like the placing was to raise cash for a specific purpose - an electrode order, perhaps? - rather than just keep the lights on at Dunsfold, so I'm really looking forward to more fireworks soon. December alone (or certainly Q1) could see all the above resolved - EV product live, first sales, cash raised (inc strategic investment?), product warranty?

Nikola Corporation has today unveiled a new battery with extremely high energy density which it reckons will double the range of EVs (both BEV and hydrogen-fuelled). They’re also sharing the IP with anyone who wants it. Game-changer - or so they claim.

Bmac, I put it to you that any cash call in the near term will either be a) for a small amount (£500k upwards) akin to that we have seen in the last few days (20p paid), or b) a major strategic investment similar to that which has propelled ITM to new heights. On Oct 3rd, when the share price was 43p, they raised £52m at 40p. The share price is now in the 70's. and the company (still loss-making) is valued at £350m.

Aubrey, you dismissed my post the other day that did some calcs around the $600m funding requirement based on all equity. I think you favour the idea that the cash can be raised by granting higher royalties to certain parties? I may have missed it but can you explain how you think this will work? Quite a stretch, IMO, to ask these parties to stump up the cash in return for increased royalties way down the line, in the meantime seeing their own balance sheets look less rosy. Moreover the present value of the additional royalties granted would have to be significantly in excess of $600m to account for the risk. So what - $1-1.5bn off the NPV? Of course I'd like this to be the answer, given it avoids dilution, but I'd welcome hearing more from some of the advocates of this approach. Thanks in advance.

I suppose it’s possible that the LOM update is connected to CORA, ie could HUM strike a deal for the resources at Tekeledougou? They’re within trucking distance (8km?) and could be possibly be a priority over going underground at Komana? Pure speculation.

Chippy, interesting thought about de Nora and Alkamem. If they would be one of the main licensees for this product, with a $1bn market to go at, then that could be very good indeed. They could be in a stronger position to push this forward rather than AFC themselves. And with a royalty of, say, 5% of gross revenues (total guess but in line with royalty levels for other tech businesses I’m aware of) then that could be very attractive.

So $600m (£480m) raised at 2p (say - 40% discount) = 24bn shares, added to the current 7bn totals 31bn. NPV say $11bn (low level), so NPV/share = 28.4p. Discount that by 50% because you don't believe the NPV, = 14.2p. Discount that by 75% for current risk and you have 3.55p per share - round about today's price. Just my take on things. Plenty of risk, plenty of upside, IMO. DYOR etc.

Words too long for you as well, Jimi?

Still trying to catch up with all the posts in the last few days - so good to see a vibrant and positive board with plenty of new (or resuscitated) members. AFC feels like a new company! Product suite clearly set out (with names!); first product launch in weeks; clear target markets; new website. Adam Bond should get credit where credit's due. He hasn't got everything right (imagine not knowing what price chlor-alkali plants paid for their electricity!) but look where the company has come from the dark days of 2017. As they say nowadays, he's "pivoted" like a good 'un. There does seem to be plenty of development and testing still to do, of course, which carries risks - Alkamem, which is central to many of the company's plans, isn't yet a finished product. But I doubt they'd have said as much as they have if they thought it might fail now. I do hope they're fully staffed up on the sales side to follow up on all the enquiries that will surely come along now. And finally, will we hear of Thalion again? They served a purpose at the time but, with the company progress and increase in Mcap, Schroders may well be able to put more in, which seems preferable. The company may also be courting other IIs, who may now feel they are in a position to invest - this would bring much-needed stability and credibility (and possibly research notes). But I'd still like de Nora to open their wallet and invest.