Member Info for iWantThatOne

Very good news. Should give more confidence to those potential customers waiting in the wings, for whatever product the electrodes are used in. Let’s not be cynical about the intent behind the RNS when we asked them to communicate more!

Reonin, oh well that’s that then. Ubitricity have got a few charging points for EVs so we may as well go home, no space for any other providers. AFC has already been very clear about its target market, which does not focus on electricity as a commodity, charging from the existing grid on residential streets like Ubitricity seems to. It’s talked about areas where local grid supply doesn’t exist, or sports arenas and the like where the AFC infrastructure can easily be set up. I’m sure Rolec can see the potential....

Thx for the link Fuey, a really good interview. “120p minimum” he says, driven by growth in US and LatAm. I also like the way he feels the tender was partly designed to remove sellers, so we might indeed see some gains after this week. Look forward to the results of the tender on Friday.

Simon, thanks, fair points. Yes, completely arbitrary numbers, just trying to get the scale of the thing. I’m sure I saw €2 or $2 pm somewhere but I’m not going to quibble. I don’t know how well Spotify is penetrating these large markets (India seems to have added several million subs in one quarter) or whether Bango’s involvement will help achieve this (think yes) but I agree there’s a lot to go at for all parties. Look forward to Ray giving more details.

Excellent news today. I'd like to understand better the potential size of this, though. Spotify expected to have 107-110m paid subscriptions by end-Q2 this year. How many will sign up via their MNO and using the Bango platform? Another few million per year perhaps? And something I only realised by Googling it just now - the monthly cost of Spotify is a lot lower than the £9.99 per month here in the UK - typically $2-4 per month in Brazil, Indonesia, India etc. So if the target market is more in those markets than elsewhere, perhaps the revenue opportunities here are limited. Each 1m subscriptions via Bango at $2 per month equals "EUS" of $24m, x 1% margin say, gives $240k p.a. revenue/profit. Certainly good incremental business at the least. Thoughts?

Who can remember how many litres of water per year are produced by an AFC fuel cell? I ask because I was looking again at DEWA’s plans to build a solar-powered desalination plant in Dubai (announced Feb 2019). Is it possible that AFC could provide an economic alternative to desalination by this or other means (accepting that the water as “waste product” isn’t a direct comparison as the fuel cell will be mainly producing electricity). The DEWA plant ultimately aims to produce 2.1bn liters of water from 11GW of solar power, from what I can make out.

A quick Google will tell all of us that any money right now is going into highly rated bonds, not those with a B rating. The desire to preserve capital in the face of Trunp’s trade war with China is driving this. The yield on US Treasuries is down from 2.75% to 1.75% this year due to the demand. So I can see why - this week - the bond issue may not be getting as much attention as the company would like. But, give it several weeks and sentiment may have improved. In extremist, selling a reduced number of bonds together with a small additional amount of shares (for which there’s lots of appetite) should do the trick. Along with some others here, I’d say the risk isn’t that the capital won’t be raised, its more a question of whether a bit more dilution is necessary. But either way, 10p is way too low once this gets sorted.

Lot of rubbish being posted today. Sterling is at a 2-3 year low against the dollar and euro. Equity markets don’t know which way is up. These are volatile market conditions in which to launch the bond issue. Note the company plans to revisit the issue this quarter - a matter of weeks. It’s not been permanently shelved.

It’s all very well XLM saying they’re going to build a new vertical in US sports betting. Anyone could say that. They need to deliver some early results in this area before the market will give them any credit for it.

So did Ory and Inbal jump or were they pushed? In the last 18m we’ve seen destruction of shareholder value, few acquisitions, the write off of some poor ones and a change of strategy. Not exactly good reading on a CEO’s CV.

I wonder if the tender offer was primarily targeted at institutional investors? Selling a large holding would only push the price down, so offering to buy back at what was a 10-15% premium could be seen as attractive by IIs.

Looks like Q4 could be exciting then. 4 year longevity confirmed and warranty given. EV charger hits the market. And possibly Southern Oil too.

Some good positives in today’s report. 3-4 years’ longevity. Rapid charging (one area where we thought AFC may be left behind), together with some other additional unspecified elements to the EV charger. Funded through to the new year, just about, without having to use the Thalion money. I particularly like the appointment of the commercial team(s), which will hopefully create a big pipeline of opportunities. Several uses of the word “Government” - I wonder to what extent they’ve had specific encouragement from them?

Should see maiden profit this year. Last year they made 1.5m EBITDA loss and 6m overall loss. Given their guidance that revenue will be getting towards double, this should result in a comfortable EBITDA profit and probably positive net income too. IMO - I don’t have broker figures to hand.

I think the word “expected” is perfectly normal in communications like this. It simply covers the situation where something completely left-field happens, like the Harley Street building burning down. I’m not reading anything into it.

156m squared! Not 156m long.

And that £12m came from £2bn EUS x 0.9% margin = £18m revenue less £6m admin costs less £2-3m depreciation and amortization, plus assumed several £m from data business. No tax.

By getting my figures wrong Razor, sorry. £12m divided by 70m shares is approx 17p per share x 20 = £3.40. That’s more like it.

That Yahoo analysis makes no allowance for future increases in business, from what I can see. It values future cash flows at £48m. If BGO doubles it’s EUS in 2020 at the same rate of margin then you’d expect it to add a further £48m (ignoring an extra year of discounting and other adjustments). But more than that, the analysis is based on free cash flow. The current cost base is already allowed for in the first £48m. So if the extra tranche if business comes at zero additional cost (which it won’t), then you can add back the £5-6m of admin costs pa into the future. If you value that at say £50m, then you’re already up to £146m, or more than £2 per share. That ignores growth beyond 2020 and also profits from the data business, which could be significant. Another way of looking at it - net profits of £12m next year (we can quibble over this figure) x PE ratio of 20 say = £2.40. Rising from there as both sides of the business continue to grow significantly. What will hold it back, I think, is that the market seems to want to see the results before they’ll give credit for them.

Interesting RNS today. Pleased that performance is in line with expectations, and that management feel the company is significantly undervalued compared to peers. The planned reduction in issued shares will support the current dividend. A move consistent with the revised, more organic growth strategy. I’m happy to get a short term boost to the SP with the expectation that further rises will come when the interims are announced and beyond.