Member Info for iWantThatOne

From Sunday Times today: “In Chicago yesterday scientists presented the results of a study into the therapy.....the results found that proton beam therapy produces substantially fewer harmful side effects than traditional radiotherapy.....They were “very exciting” and “point to a real benefit for our patients” said Dr James Metz of the University of Pennsylvania, which conducted a comparative study of the therapy with the University of Washington. The research involved 1483 patients”. The article goes on to talk about the UK, saying that doctors have cautioned that the expense of the new treatment means it may be some time before it replaces conventional radiation.

Didn't the DFS from '17 give an NPV of $42m after initial capex of $44m, so there's $86m of gold to be produced. So the purchase price would be 80% of $42m divided by 355m shares, or 9.5c per share (7.3p)? So yes, I agree worth more than the $20m backstop figure but can't quite see how you (CE) calculate 11.5c. And just thinking - if the new guys can build/adapt their plant more cheaply than XTR allowed in the DFS, the net NPV will be higher than $42m. It's not clear whether this would form the basis of their purchase of the company.

Lots of investors taking what profits they can today. But MMP could now, at any time, buy FB for 5.6c per share. Wouldn’t want to miss that.

$20m is close to 5p per share.

Good news - trading is in line with expectations, lots of cash, the share buyback continues. Progressive dividend policy reiterated.

The RNS is very poorly worded when it comes to the LOM update. The 91,620 ozs that were poured in 2018, when added to 110k this year (say), 130k p.a. in 2020-22 (say) and 80k in 2023 all adds up to 671k ozs - still less than the total in the current mine plan. So the new ball mill (and possibly plus the draft new mine plan) apparently allows a ramping up in 2020-22, but the net additional ounces are still to be communicated and will result in additional years, whether at 80k or at a much higher figure. The RNS seems to conflate these things without really explaining what's going on.

Excellent! Hope to hear of current trading at the AGM next week, with a bit of luck.

A good response to the news? 50/50 buys and sells?! Who is selling at these levels and on this kind of news? I fear traders and shorters will be haunting us for some time.

More on fast EV chargers in Europe from the Sunday Times: “BMW, Volkswagen, Mercedes-Benz and Ford are to build 400 ultra-rapid charging stations in Europe by next year, including 40 in Britain......the four brands, working in an alliance called Ionity, are investing £34m, with matched funding from the European Union....other companies, including Chargemaster and Pod Point are also planning high power networks in the UK.”

Strange voting at the AGM today. 26.1% votes against adopting the annual report, the exact same number (bar 1000 votes, which could be a typo), who voted against Gianluca D’Agostino being re-elected to the BoD. Any ideas, anyone?

Agree GS, all about execution now. The market must still be well fed up with Ory after the placing at 190p or so - I can well believe there is s certain reluctance from some of them to buy more. But value will out, as they say. A return to a still decent 5% divi yield implies an SP of approx 100p, or more allowing for the share buybacks. EBITDA growth beyond that could see further good progress from there.

Excellent news, 35m shared sold / transferred, now we can move upward. LOM news imminent, I hope.

Interesting article today headlined “Drivers plugging into an electric future will need a lot of chargers”. The Committee on Climate Change estimates there will need to be at least 200,000 public charging points by 2050, up from 16,000 today. There’s talk of the 150kW fast chargers that can charge s car in 5 minutes - BP plans to install 400 by 2021 through its Chargemaster subsidiary. It also mentions the UK Government’s Charging Infrastructure Investment Fund, which is set to invest about £200m from taxpayers and £200m of private money. A source of some cash for AFC?

To have a fund-raising that comprises mostly debt rather than equity when the product is still far from complete is magnificent.

Strange RNS today don’t you think? It can’t be deemed price sensitive news or else Ory wouldn’t have been able to buy the other day. I suppose it shows they’re getting on with business....

Interesting link, Piller. Here's a similar one:

https://nieuws.kuleuven.be/en/content/2019/belgian-scientists-crack-the-code-for-affordable-eco-friendly-hydrogen-gas

In his Proactive interview, AB mentioned that Schroder had been buying more shares in the open market, following their participation in the subscription late-April. By my calculation they've bought an additional 1m shares or very close to, and (interestingly) at a price higher then that used for the subscription (which was 3p). Small in the scheme of things, as they already had more than 46m, but still - a further vote of confidence.

Good interview with AB, I thought. Listen around 15:50 when says something like "we can produce revenue right now but we're not in a position to warrant it, and thats more about our balance sheet not being able to support the sort of warranties that some of these big projects need....but this is coming". He says this is different from warranties supplied by partners like De Nora. It sounds like he's saying the balance sheet needs to be strengthened - perhaps a more significant capital raise than the Thalion one? I could well understand a customer saying well, we're not even sure you'll be around next year cos you are so thinly capitalised. I might be barking up the wrong tree.Raising $10m at 10p, say, with a reliable partner wouldn't hurt at all.

Great to be back in the 4p's, I feel a bit giddy. And in terms of diesel charges, one mining company company I follow included a price of 28c per kWh in their studies (this was from 2014 or so). And yes, I've asked them to get in touch with AFC. This is for a 16MW plant in Africa. For them, the savings on power from AFC at, say, 15c per kWh would be huge.

Absolutely zero buying activity here, and precious little selling either. Tumbleweeds.

Some figures were posted earlier this evening about a relatively low future share price in 2021/2024, based on a base case of $1.0bn EBITDA (from the company’s Oct 2018 presentation). Well what a difference two years makes - the presentation also shows that by 2026 the base case has $1.8bn EBITDA (with production having grown to 13Mtpa). On the same calculation basis, the share price would equate to £1.15 (with 10bn shares). That’s 7 years away but the potential rewards still look pretty good to me.