Member Info for iWantThatOne

Agreed that additional EUS brings some small related cost but the payments cost base is mostly flat (as we can seen comparing 2017 with 2018). So doubling EUS in 2019 will deliver, if not an additional £5m, then close to it.

Nonsense. Doubling the EUS and making a small EBITDA profit on data will give an additional £5m or so of cash this year to add to the current £3-4m, so there is no issue with current liabilities. As for the “low/falling” margin some are referring to, don’t forget that the booking of revenue over 12m rather than up-front under IFRS15, which started last year, means that some revenue that normally would appear in 2018 will now simply be booked in 2019. This has given the impression of a reduced margin. There may well be some pressure on margin from various quarters but I suspect the new accounting standard has played a greeter role.

How does the announcement today sit alongside the Southern Oil ones? They can’t have got this far with Southern if the flow plates couldn’t be manufactured. Perhaps they could be done for a small batch, at a higher cost than for mass manufactured ones of course. Clarification needed, as always.

Jeez, I truly thought we’d be way more advanced than just having a preferred supplier who is helping to refine the flow plate. Clearly they’ve been fiddling with (sorry, “perfecting”) the final design over an extended period. Ok, I know it’s important but how long is this all going to take?!

Outlook looks excellent but they need to deliver in 2019 first. I suspect the SP will wallow for much of the year but, if they execute the plan well, a big re-rate will be due at some point.

I don't know Bumble, it's 12 months now since we've been in the "commercialisation" phase with the implication (reinforced in the interims) being that the technicals were mostly behind us. They may not have hit 4 years yet but I think they have enough to get them some orders. My suspicion is that lots of scoping is going on but they are waiting and waiting for the first order - which would kick off the stack manufacturing and electrode deals which are probably lined up (but possibly with some issues due to Brexit).

That may be because the results are reasonably predictable, given we can extrapolate from H1, and allowing for a small EBITDA profit in Q4. I think he forward guidance, if we’re given any, and any other general commentary will be what will propel the SP forward. I’m keen to understand how much money the data business can make, so a breakdown will be useful. The payments side is much better understood from a financial perspective.

Lots of talk in the news today about climate change - Bath Council following other councils by proclaiming a Climate Emergency and resolving to become carbon neutral, and school kids missing lessons to protest. Why on earth is AFC not at the forefront of all this, explaining its micro-grid solutions and how it can help solve the problem? Don’t tell me it needs to prove Dunsfold first. And even if the product isn’t quite ready, why aren’t the PR guys on this and getting AFC’s name out there? They could be writing to every local council in the UK to say come and see what we’re doing. Maybe they are, in which they should make it public. So frustrating.

Still all to play for, surely? If AFC has an emerging lead in price/longevity, for example, then it can compete very well against these guys. Perhaps AFC have been guilty of waiting too long with a fuel cell that could already compete in some areas but in any case they can’t be too far behind GenCell.

The copy reads: “An Israeli designer of green energy cells is gearing up for a London listing that could value the company at up to $250m (£192m). GenCell, which is based near Tel Aviv, develops fuel cells that convert hydrogen and ammonia into hydrogen fuel, creating emission-free electricity. The company, which is majority owned by its chairman Benny Landa is thought to be hoping to raise about $70m when it lists on AIM”.

Thanks Andrew et al, if the intention is now for FB to be processed by Omnia then I'd like to see this RNS'd, as it's new news and we don't know the agreed terms, nor how the enhancements will be paid for (as you say) - though I suppose it may not have quite reached the point of contact signing yet. I do think this would be excellent news, btw.

Where does he say that, Tom?

JDAU, so the “plant needing an upgrade” to process FB rock implies Omnia will be doing this? If not, whose plant?

How far have HUM got with the updated DFS for Dugbe? It all went quiet on that front. Having the license ratified will be great but I’d like to see the updated plan pretty quickly. No partner would invest without it, of course.

When the results are announced i do hope we can see some evidence of the financial arrangement with TDK. The RNS said “No further financial details relating to the transaction will be disclosed due to confidentiality provisions in the agreement“, which pretty much confirms that something beyond the normal royalty fee was involved. An upfront fee? A financial penalty for patent infringement? A contribution to development costs? Or perhaps related to sales targets?

Meant to say “lack of publication about two year longevity....” is because they’ve already got business in the pipeline.

Silures, I’m with you, I can only assume that two year longevity and a lack of appearance at industry events is because they’ve already got their hands full with a lengthy pipeline of interested parties. Or is that wishful thinking....,

I’d be sorely disappointed if longevity was only two years at this stage. Eight months ago in the Interims AFC reported: “Continued material improvement in electrode longevity under the Joint Development Agreement with De Nora now evidencing electrode lives of at least two years”. That may have been a single electrode test pairing rather than a full-scale set in a stack but even so. Months prior to that, the positivity around the “route-map” to four year longevity was such that it almost sounded inevitable - a case of when, not if.

No sale price for me unless things start (again) going badly - my buys yesterday are tucked away nicely in my SIPP for the long term at a (hopefully) stonking yield.

I can’t help but think that the likely Brexit delay will cause problems here. Can AFC sign new contracts with EU partners with no certainty about tariffs or regulatory issues? Similarly with other international contracts, where the UK is really slow about replacing EU trade treaties with UK ones. Hopefully I’ll now be proved wrong with news tomorrow!